Are Power Hitters No Longer Valued in MLB?

MLB Free Agency didn’t go as planned for Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, and Mark Trumbo. Are teams no longer valuing home run hitters?

It’s no secret that there was a rise in home runs league-wide during the 2016 season. Eight players hit more than 40 home runs, including players like Brian Dozier, Chris Carter, and Nelson Cruz. Two of those 40 home run hitters were free agents following the 2016 season in Trumbo and Encarnacion.

Naturally, it seemed as though teams would be drawn to them, especially teams in the American League. Instead it took seemingly forever for either of the players to sign. When they did sign, it was for less money than had been predicted. Not only did Trumbo and Encarnacion have to wait around for contracts, but Chris Carter, another 40 home run hitter, got cut by the Brewers and is still yet to find a job.

Why aren’t MLB teams chomping at the bit to add a power hitter to their team? Certainly Trumbo, Encarnacion, and Carter all have their flaws. But they were all among the best producers in home runs last season. That should have its own value. Instead, teams that had a need for a bat tended to avoid giving them huge contracts. Why has this been happening?

In the case of Trumbo and Carter, perhaps it was the high strikeout rate combined with lower batting average that caused teams to pass on them. In the case of Encarnacion and Bautista their age was likely a huge factor in teams avoiding a large and long contract. However, it still appears as though teams saw little value in players that hit home runs.

Another reason for this could have to do with the very reason these guys appeared to be bound for a huge contract: an increased number of home runs. Because home runs were rising all around the league, teams were less dependent on a single player to provide the majority of power in their lineup. Players residing in the middle of the pack in terms of home run production were still hitting 20 or more home runs. Teams are fine to have three or four of those players on their team rather than overpaying for 40 home run players that are a liability on defense.

Does that mean that teams hate home runs now? Of course not. Instead, they are finding different, smarter ways to find home run hitters in a cost-effective way. They still seek power from their hitters, but teams are getting wiser about valuing defense.

This can be seen in the drastic decrease in corner outfield offense over the last couple decades. Whether or not this is the best strategy to win is still somewhat up for debate. However, it’s clear that teams are now valuing defense in the outfield more than they ever have before. The upper limit of impact a defense makes was seen recently in the Royals and Cubs. Both teams had elite outfield defense that allowed their pitchers to have even better performances both in the regular season and postseason.

The game is moving in a different direction. Outfield defense is valued even more now than it ever has been. This, combined with the increase in home runs around the league, led to teams avoiding home run hitters during this free agent class. Perhaps more teams can be like the Indians and take advantage of the reduced price in sluggers in the coming seasons. If not, we might see more players like Chris Carter be forced to go abroad to find a job playing baseball.