With Mike Trout out, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is making his push for AL MVP
By Sam Panayotovich
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
When Los Angeles Angels phenom Mike Trout strained his right calf a month ago, it derailed another promising American League MVP candidacy.
Through 36 games, Trout was slashing .333/.466/.624 with 39 hits, eight homers, 18 RBIs, 23 runs and two full wins above replacement. At the time of his injury, he was also the betting favorite to win his fourth MVP.
Bookmakers quickly ballooned Trout’s odds and made his dual-threat Angels teammate Shohei Ohtani the favorite. But in all reality, Trout’s expected two-month absence created a domino rally in the AL MVP market.
"The market moved drastically," FOX Bet content integration specialist Jacob Blangsted-Barnor told me. "Trout was +125 before the injury, and when the injury news broke, everything changed. Ohtani shortened from +500 to +125, and Trout moved out to +1200.
"Somebody has to be the betting favorite, and Ohtani was certainly worthy, but Trout’s injury opened up the door for everybody else."
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We’ve discussed taxes on NFL players such as Tom Brady, NBA teams such as the Los Angeles Lakers and college football programs such as Alabama. It sounds like there’s a "Trout tax" built into the MVP market.
Bookmakers shade their prices on certain players and teams due to the love fest bettors have for them. If bunches of people are going to fire bets on Trout to win the MVP no matter what, sportsbooks will lower his odds from jump street.
"One-hundred percent," JBB admitted. "There’s definitely a Trout tax. He’s a three-time MVP, and you know that people want to bet him because he’s going to be in contention every single year. It really takes him not playing well [or getting injured], plus an outstanding season from somebody else.
"It’s easier to bet Trout because he’s a generational talent. He takes up so much of the market that there’s often value on some of the bigger prices on the outsiders. But for the casual fan, it’s a lot tougher to pick someone deeper in the weeds."
Enter Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Built like a fullback with hands like a lumberjack's and the raw power of a Mack engine, the Blue Jays’ slugger has the potential to do something special every time he’s at the plate. Vladdy the second obliterates baseballs everywhere he goes, and his power numbers are off the charts.
Guerrero is slashing .342/.444/.675 with an OPS of 1.119. And, oh, by the way, he leads the American League in batting average, homers and RBIs.
FOX Bet opened Vladdy at 25-to-1 to win the AL MVP, meaning a $10 bet on Opening Day pays out $250 if he finishes strong and wins the award.
But you can forget about getting anything close to that price right now. Guerrero is currently the betting favorite at FOX Bet, at +120. That 10 bucks that made you $250 in late March makes you only $12 right now.
"Recently all the sharp money is on Vlad Jr.," JBB reported. "Ohtani was pretty popular earlier in the season, but it’s all about [Guerrero] as of late.
"The Blue Jays are terrifying on offense, with Vlad Jr. as the centerpiece. He’s leading the American League in most of the important categories. The conditions look right for him to have a good chance to win the triple crown. The statistical leads he’s got at the moment put him in a good position."
Meanwhile, the fastest riser in the National League is New York Mets ace Jacob deGrom. Armed with a 0.54 ERA, a 0.50 WHIP and a 111-to-8 strikeout-to-walk ratio, deGrom is putting together one of the best statistical seasons we’ve ever seen from a starting pitcher.
The former Stetson Mad Hatter is +225 to win the NL MVP. The only player in the senior circuit with shorter odds is San Diego’s Fernando Tatis Jr. (+200). Another junior — Atlanta’s Ronald Acuña (+500) — is on the three-line.
"DeGrom has been ridiculous," JBB said. "For starters, he has a 0.54 ERA! The guy is practically unhittable, so we moved him quickly near the top of the NL MVP market. There’s some soreness in his pitching shoulder, and we’ll be monitoring that throughout the season.
"The toughest thing about lining a pitcher to win MVP is the injury possibility. It’s so difficult for a guy to keep up an MVP pace on pitching alone, and it only takes a little bit of an injury for the price to slip out. But if deGrom can stay healthy, he’s got as good of a shot as anybody.
"And he’s by far our biggest liability."
Baseball is in a very, very good place with such a bevy of young, exciting players taking center stage and rising up the MVP betting boards. Naysayers love to complain about the lack of base hits and the ridiculous number of strikeouts, but young players such as Guerrero, Tatis and Acuña are taking the league by storm.
At the end of the day, the money always tells a story in sports betting. And there’s more than enough money in the kitty on Vlad Guerrero Jr. to make trading rooms around the world a little nervous.
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He'll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.