2026 MLB Odds: Best Bet for League's Worst Team
Hope springs eternal.
The old proverb reflects the optimism that comes along with the start of a new MLB season. A fresh start, and the possibility of contending, gives teams and their fans hope ahead of the long 162-game season.
While that optimism is justified, the reality is that not everyone will play into October. Some teams will be bad, and some will, in fact, be very bad.
While focusing on the odds of who will finish with the worst record, let’s take a look at some of the candidates and find a team worth wagering on.
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The Colorado Rockies at -400 (risk $4 to win $1) are the "favorite" to finish with the worst record, one of very few times in recent memory the Rockies will be favored for anything.
Looking at their 2025 record, they are the rightful favorite. Colorado went a staggering 43-119 and were outscored by 424 runs, as it finished 50 games out of first place and 40 games out of a wild-card spot.
Not great!
The Rockies, however, made a few additions to the rotation that might at least raise the floor, and for this market, that’s significant. They brought in starting pitchers Michael Lorenzen and Jose Quintana, both former All-Stars, who should at least provide some much-needed stability and credibility to the starting rotation. Colorado also added Tomoyuki Sugano, who had a respectable 4.64 ERA, although his underlying stats and 33 home runs allowed are a concern when pitching at hitter-friendly Coors Field.
The Rockies will likely be better this year, but admittedly, "better" is a low bar to clear here. At -400 odds, I don’t see the value.
The Minnesota Twins are an interesting candidate for this category, sitting at 35-1 odds ($1 wins $35). Coming off a 70-92 season, they have already lost frontline starter Pablo Lopez for the year due to arm surgery. They are also a relatively older team, and a bad start and more injuries could lead them to sell off their best players before the trade deadline.
At long odds, it’s not a bad bet, but getting all the way to the bottom might be tough.
The team I ultimately landed on is the Washington Nationals at +750. The Nationals won just 66 games last year, and traded All-Star pitcher Mackenzie Gore in the offseason. They also reside in a loaded division, where the Braves, Mets, and Phillies all have 90+ win potential, and the Marlins flirted with playoff contention with their exciting young core in 2025.
Extra games against those teams spell trouble for the still-rebuilding Nationals, a team that had the worst bullpen ERA in all of MLB last season. With a starting rotation that will likely force the bullpen into use early and often throughout the season, the Nationals enter 2026 without much pitching. In a stacked division that will expose Washington's many weaknesses, a 66-win team from last year might be even worse this year.
PICK: Washington Nationals (+750) to win fewest games