2023 MLB odds: Three teams that currently offer daily betting value
Baseball is an unpredictable, capricious game. Betting on MLB daily requires a great deal of confidence — and the ability to quickly forget about the losses.
How many times has the team you bet held a 3-0 lead in the final few frames only to find itself on the wrong side of an error, a bloop and a blast? Suddenly, it’s a 3-3 tie, or you’re trailing 4-3 and the sweat is way too real.
Lead swings are prevalent in the four major professional sports, but baseball takes the cake. Knowing that, I’ve morphed into a firm believer that the best way to bet bases is to uncover undervalued teams that possess rock-solid bullpen ERAs.
And these are things you can monitor for free.
Tracking profitability on StatFox is a part of my daily baseball routine, and I’m always cognizant of which teams make you money. Then there’s FanGraphs, which allows you to keep a close eye on which bullpens deliver.
A quick cross-reference gives us three teams that combine market value – they’re not routine betting favorites – and efficient ‘pens. The Baltimore Orioles, Pittsburgh Pirates and Boston Red Sox are a combined 63-42 this season and have made bettors a collective 27.8 units.
$100 dollar bettors would be up $2,780.
Most profitable MLB teams (as of May 7 games):
Tampa Bay Rays (28-7) +17.9 units | 3.10 Bullpen ERA
Baltimore Orioles (22-12) +9.9 units | 3.20 Bullpen ERA
Atlanta Braves (24-11) +9.8 units | 3.60 Bullpen ERA
Pittsburgh Pirates (20-15) +9.5 units | 3.35 Bullpen ERA
Boston Red Sox (21-15) +8.4 units | 3.46 Bullpen ERA
Notice I skipped over the Tampa Bay Rays and Atlanta Braves.
Armed with a 28-7 record, Tampa Bay is no longer sneaking up on bookmakers. The red-hot Rays have been favored in 19 of their last 20 games with plenty of betting prices at -170 or higher. So any future rough patches will be costly.
Meanwhile, Atlanta is favored to win the World Series at FOX Bet. Forget about getting relative value on a daily basis with a team like that. You're always going to pay a premium no matter what.
But Baltimore, Pittsburgh and Boston live in a betting sweet spot because they fly under the radar, especially inside their own divisions. Most bettors are more likely to fire wagers on the Milwaukee Brewers, New York Yankees and Toronto Blue Jays instead on a daily basis.
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Ben Verlander gives his Team of the Week which is headlined by Boston Red Sox Masataka Yoshida and Baltimore Orioles Anthony Santander.
Let’s dive a little deeper on Baltimore’s last 10 games:
- L (+145) at Atlanta | -1.0 unit
- L (+225) at Atlanta | -1.0 unit
- W (+190) at Atlanta | +1.9 units
- W (-170) at Kansas City | +1.0 unit
- L (-145) at Kansas City | -1.5 units
- W (-170) at Kansas City | + 1.0 unit
- W (-145) at Detroit | +1.0 unit
- W (-150) at Detroit | +1.0 unit
- L (+100) at Detroit | -1.0 unit
- W (-125) vs. Boston | +1.0 unit
That’s a 6-4 record, but the O’s made 2.4 units because you don’t generally pay steep prices when they lose and the one victory at Atlanta (+190) all but erases the two one-unit losses in that series at +145 and +225.
Risk is minimized on teams like Baltimore, but it tends to ramp up on teams like the Houston Astros or New York Mets because you’re routinely drinking heavier betting juice with the latter.
Houston’s last 10 games:
- L (+120) at Seattle | -1.0 unit
- L (-120) at Seattle | -1.0 unit
- W (+120) at Seattle | +1.2 units
- L (-135) vs. San Francisco | -1.4 units
- L (-190) vs. San Francisco | -1.9 units
- W (-195) vs. San Francisco | +1.0 unit
- W (-155) vs. Philadelphia | +1.0 unit
- L (-130) vs. Philadelphia | -1.3 units
- L (-140) vs. Philadelphia | -1.4 units
- W (+105) at Tampa Bay | +1.0 unit
That’s a 4-6 record, but you’re down 3.8 units. You see the difference?
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Ben Verlander gives his you his MLB Power Rankings with the Atlanta Braves and Tampa Bay Rays taking the top two spots once again.
Let’s bring this full circle to highlight the worst bullpens in baseball and show you why betting on horrendous relievers just kills your bankroll.
Continuing to wager on the following five teams might have you living under a bridge if you keep it up.
Five worst MLB bullpen ERAs (w/ records):
Oakland Athletics 6.70 | 8-27, -14.1 units
Chicago White Sox 6.15 | 12-23, -10.1 units
San Francisco Giants 5.89 | 15-18, -4.5 units
Kansas City Royals 5.30 | 9-26, -13.9 units
Philadelphia Phillies 5.20 | 16-19, -7.0 units
The aforementioned "fab five" is down almost 50 units collectively.
Thanks, but no thanks.
Keep an eye on which bullpens are doing well, especially if you are looking to get in on the daily sweat of betting on baseball.
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He'll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.
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