2023 MLB odds: Examining a popular bet among baseball bettors

By Patrick Everson
Published

With March Madness, followed by the NBA and Stanley Cup playoffs, it’s been easy to overlook other opportunities on the betting board, such as MLB odds.

For the next few months, sportsbooks will provide a plethora of baseball markets to bet into, some more intriguing than others. One that’s very popular, particularly for those who don’t like to wait, is what’s been termed either NRFI or YRFI: No Run First Inning or Yes Run First Inning. 

Simply put, will there be any runs scored in the first inning?

Thankfully, FOX Sports Radio betting analyst and avid MLB bettor Jared Smith puts in a lot of work on this prop so that you don’t have to. Smith helped break down the prop’s popularity and shared how he approaches the NRFI/YRFI market.

Entertainment vs. Edge

Smith recognizes that most bettors enjoy not only winning, but quickly winning. After all, who wants to wait, right? Hence, the popularity of an MLB prop that only takes one inning to settle up.

"I agree the immediacy of winning or losing is more about entertainment value, because we live in a betting culture dictated by instant gratification," Smith said. "The actual edge exists if you can somewhat accurately quantify how likely a pitcher is to allow a run in the first inning, and conversely how likely an offense is to score a run."

And it doesn’t have to be time-consuming to quantify the occurrence.

"This can be done by simple math," Smith said. "And the power of Excel allows me to create a rudimentary formula which gives me the percentage chance of a team scoring in the first inning, taking into account the lineup and starting pitcher. From there, you can compare to what odds are being offered and find discrepancies in the market."

In other words, put in just a little math legwork, and if you determine it’s worth a bet, then shop around at multiple sportsbooks to see where you can get the most advantageous odds.

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What to Look For

Specifically, Smith looks at three metrics in identifying good NRFI or YRFI opportunities: A pitcher’s NRFI rate; a team’s expected fielding independent pitching (xFIP); and for the team at bat, weighted runs created (wRC+). 

"Both xFIP and wRC+ can be found on Fangraphs, which is the site I use and trust the most for baseball stats," Smith said, before further explaining his process. "The pitcher's NRFI rate is vital. For example, if they have made three starts and have not allowed a [first-inning] run in all three, their NRFI rate would be 100%. In terms of analytics, xFIP is a key metric I use to evaluate how likely a pitcher is to allow a run.

"For the offense, I calculate a similar NRFI rate based on how many times they have scored in the first inning of a game. The key analytical metric I track is wRC+, which helps determine how likely a team is to score a run in the first inning."

However, it’s not all about stats and analytics.

"There's some situational handicapping that goes along with the quantitative analysis I do on a nightly basis," Smith said. "For example, if a team is coming off an explosive offensive game (10 or more runs), I might lean toward NRFI the following day. Or if the weather/wind/shadows will have a big impact since I know the exact 20- to 30-minute window during which the bet will take place.

"If all of the factors align in my favor – situational, quantitative and meteorological – I will get to the betting window."

Or, more likely, in this day and age, he’ll scroll through his mobile sportsbook apps, find the best odds and fire on a bet.

Scan the Schedule

With 15 games a day often the norm – and occasionally more with doubleheaders – there’s quite a bit to pore over for Smith. But his formula makes it possible to do so.

"My process allows me to grade every offense and pitcher in MLB, so I at least glance over every game daily, to see if there are any quantitative data that supports a YRFI or NRFI," he said. "From there, I usually select a handful of games that catch my eye and dive deeper. 

"Because of how much MLB is a high-volume sport, I try to limit my actual wagers to three to five every day, which is the most difficult part of the process since most games are showing at least some sort of edge in one direction."

Smith also noted the importance of managing your expectations – and just as important, your money – when betting either Yes or No on this prop.

"When you're dealing with a bet that only spans six outs, you have to prepare for volatility since there is no runway to come back from an early deficit," he said. "I've literally lost an NRFI and won a YRFI on the first pitch of the game. It's exciting and one of my favorite ways to bet baseball. But just make sure you understand the risks and downside before placing large amounts of your bankroll on it."

Regression to the Mean

Early-season returns have been positive for those betting Yes Run First Inning. Smith said an apparent juiced baseball and new MLB rules favoring offense have led to increased scoring thus far.

"However, I expect there to be ebbs and flows throughout the season. From my experience, this bet tends to balance out over the long haul," Smith said. "Once we reach the dog days of summer and MLB swaps out the balls – which they've been known to do during the middle parts of the season – I expect scoring to take a dip. 

"But because of the new rules, this midseason drop-off in scoring might not be as pronounced as it has been in years past."

Regardless, Smith provided a quick tip on where to start your analysis of whether to make a YRFI/NRFI wager.

"Look at the game total," he said. "If it's less than 8, you should probably lean NRFI, and if it's more than 8, it probably makes sense to look at YRFI first."

Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.

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