2023 MLB odds: Who will win Astros-Rangers Game 1? Pick, prediction

By Will Hill
FOX Sports MLB Betting Analyst

It's been a long few days off for the Texas Rangers and Houston Astros.

The Rangers finished their sweep of the Baltimore Orioles in the American League Division Series on Tuesday night, earning them four days to get ready for the American League Championship Series, while the Astros have had three days off since finishing off the Minnesota Twins.

Rest? Rust? Well, that's an age-old debate that's hard to really answer definitively, but with both teams in a similar position, I don't think it's a major factor in who wins this battle for the Texas State Championship.

With that being said, let's get into my pick for Game 1.

Astros to win Game 1 (-140, bet $10 to win $17.14 total)

These are two really even teams, as evidenced by their identical 90-72 regular season records. So how do we separate them and decide who has the edge?

I think there are two significant advantages the defending champs have: experience and a better bullpen. The Astros had the sixth-best bullpen ERA during the regular season at 3.56, while the Rangers were near the bottom of the league at 4.77 (24th).

The Astros lineup dominated the Rangers staff in the head-to-head meetings this season, scoring double-digits runs in five of the 13 games. The Astros went 9-4 in those games and are 37-14 against the Rangers over the past three seasons, if that means anything to you.

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Houston starter Justin Verlander admittedly hasn't been great in recent postseasons and was far from dominant in his outing against the Twins in Game 1 of the ALDS.

However, I can't go against the depth of the Astros lineup (which is now fully healthy) and the experience of this team, which is now in the ALCS for a remarkable seventh consecutive season.

I expect the Astros to do what they always do: win games in the playoffs.

Will Hill, a contributor on the Bear's Bets Podcast, has been betting on sports for over a decade. He is a betting analyst who has been a host on VSiN, as well as the Goldboys Network.