2022 World Series: How the Astros can beat the Phillies and elevate their dynasty

With scandal looming in perpetuity over their 2017 title, the Houston Astros have sought an untarnished championship and repeatedly come up short in the years since.

Despite all the close calls the past five seasons, this might be their best shot to finally ascend the mountaintop once again. Houston is just the third team in the wild-card era to reach the World Series undefeated in postseason play, joining the 2007 Rockies and 2014 Royals. Perfect playoffs or not, they'll try to finish the year as champions, something both Colorado and Kansas City failed to do at the end of their runs. 

Against the Phillies, Houston will begin the series Friday by taking on yet another scorching-hot NL East opponent in the World Series, following losses to the Nationals in 2019 and the Braves a year ago. Third time's the charm, perhaps?

It's hardly a hot take to declare the 106-win, undefeated-in-the-postseason Astros the favorites over the 87-win, No. 6 seed Phillies, no matter how hot the Fightins have been the past few weeks. But let's get a little more specific than just calling the Astros the better baseball team. 

These are the four biggest reasons I believe the Astros will emerge victorious in what should be another exciting edition of the Fall Classic.

The roster is manager-proof

Every October, with the pressure cranked way up and in-game strategy meaning more with every passing pitch, managerial decisions — from lineup construction to bullpen maneuvering — are an enormous topic of discussion and scrutiny. It’s clear the positive impact Rob Thomson has had on the clubhouse off the field since taking over for Joe Girardi midseason, but a big part of this magical Phillies run has also been his ability to carefully navigate when exactly to turn to the team's two best relievers in Jose Alvarado and Seranthony Domínguez. Thomson largely succeeded in that task. 

On the flip side, Yankees manager Aaron Boone struggled to call on the right relievers in the right spots on several occasions this postseason. He also had to make decisions literally every game regarding who was playing shortstop or left field — or batting leadoff. It was constant shuffling, mixing and matching. Not all of that is on Boone, but the results spoke for themselves.

Meanwhile, for the Astros, the top six in the lineup hasn’t changed once all postseason, and the bullpen runs so deep with reliable arms that there are very few realistic scenarios in which Dusty Baker can call on the "wrong" guy. It’s more likely he leaves a starting pitcher in too long, but with the way his four starters have been throwing, it would be difficult to criticize him for that, either.

It’s not that I don’t believe Dusty Baker is a great manager. I think he has proven to be exactly what the Astros have needed over the past few seasons in more ways than one. And I’m not saying anyone could do his job because the players are so good. But as far as high-leverage decision-making goes, he’s got it pretty easy. His roster is about as plug-and–play as one can be. 

That’s not to say the Astros players are perfect or incapable of performing poorly, but from a process standpoint, there are very few wrong buttons Baker could press over the course of a game, compared to the average team and manager. That feels like a pretty big deal.

Games 3 and 4 should be an enormous advantage pitching-wise

I wrote before last round how this Astros pitching staff is arguably the best it has been during their historic run toward a sixth consecutive ALCS. They proceeded to hold the Yankees to just nine runs over four games, five of which came in Game 4 — they’re clearly still rolling. It’s no secret that Houston yields a far deeper bullpen than the Phillies, and that’s no slight to Philadelphia’s surprisingly strong relief unit — Houston’s is as good as any in baseball. 

But let's focus more on the starters. In Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler, the Phillies come in with a legitimate 1-2 counterpunch for Justin Verlander and Framber Valdez atop the World Series rotations. After that, though? The gap widens in a hurry.

Whether it's breakout star Cristian Javier or the immense postseason experience of Lance McCullers Jr., Houston's Game 3 starter should be a clear favorite over Phillies lefty Ranger Suárez. Adding to the challenge of taking on Javier is that no one in the Phillies lineup has ever faced him, besides Brandon Marsh for seven at-bats while he was with the Angels and Kyle Schwarber for two with the Red Sox in 2021. The World Series doesn't seem like the most fun setting to face Javier's fantastic four-seamer for the first time, but that's what the Phillies are going to have to do.

Suárez, meanwhile, has shown equal flashes of brilliance and inconsistency over the past month. I’ll give him something of a pass for his poor outing against Houston at the end of the regular season in a 10-0 hangover-lineup loss the day after they clinched a postseason spot. That said, it probably doesn’t hurt Astros hitters to know that they teed off against the likely Game 3 starter less than a month ago. Still, Suárez at his best could realistically go toe-to-toe with Javier or McCullers.

As for Game 4, it's much more difficult to squint and see how the Phillies will have any sort of edge on the mound. We're talking about one of McCullers or Javier against … Bailey Falter? Noah Syndergaard? Kyle Gibson? In the NLCS, the Phillies could withstand the poor start from Falter because the Padres sent out a similarly shaky tandem in Mike Clevinger and Sean Manaea. They will have no such luxury against Houston. 

And hey, let's say the Phils manage to knock around Javier or McCullers. Normally, a situation such as that would stress-test a bullpen, potentially taxing it significantly later in the series. But I haven't even mentioned Hunter Brown, one of the game's top starting pitching prospects who has settled smoothly into a bullpen role for Houston, or Luis Garcia, who threw the five final scoreless frames in the 18-inning classic against Seattle in the ALDS, or José Urquidy, who has a 1.54 ERA in 11.2 career innings in the World Series. 

If the Astros need length in a pinch — whether in a start later in the series or in long relief at any point — they've got multiple excellent options — and far more than exist than on Philadelphia's roster. 

Perhaps the Phillies get ultra-aggressive and turn to Nola for Game 4 on short rest, but that's not something he has ever done, and he'd be up against a strong, fully rested option for Houston no matter what.

Related from Jake Mintz: How can the Phillies upset the Astros?

Altuve and Tucker have to do something at some point … right?

As remarkable as the pitching has been the past seven games, Houston’s offense — which ranked sixth in MLB in wRC+ during the regular season — has been merely solid. This is due in large part to José Altuve's shocking 3-for-32 showing and All-Star Kyle Tucker's not-much-better 6-for-28 dragging the overall team line down, but even Yordan Álvarez is just 3-for- 21 with one extra-base hit since his two iconic homers in the ALDS against the Mariners. The good news is the left side of the infield — rookie sensation and ALCS MVP Jeremy Peña and October mainstay Alex Bregman — showed up and showed out in the first two rounds.

Beyond Peña and Bregman, the Astros have also received significant production from 38-year-old Yuli Gurriel, who has leveled up in a huge way this postseason (.933 OPS) after a legitimately bad regular season (.647 OPS), and center fielder Chas McCormick, who has an .898 OPS batting near the bottom of the order. Houston's elite run prevention hasn't necessitated too much run support so far, but the Phillies have a much more fearsome lineup than Seattle or New York and might push this Astros team to step up more than they have thus far. 

It's possible Altuve in particular is in a funk too deep to climb out of at this point, but this isn't just any great player going through a slump; this is one of the greatest postseason hitters of all time. If he turns it back on in the leadoff spot — and Tucker starts to look like another legit lefty slugger alongside Álvarez — that makes navigating the top of Houston's lineup all the more challenging. And then it feels like it's only a matter of time. 

The Astros will capitalize on defensive miscues

While the offense as a whole hasn't been firing on all cylinders, we saw in the ALCS how quickly the Astros can make you pay if you give them extra outs to work with. Harrison Bader dropped a fly ball with two outs in Game 3, and McCormick homered a few pitches later. In Game 4, a botched double-play from Gleyber Torres and Isiah Kiner-Falefa sparked a big seventh inning that ultimately ended the Yankees' season.

The Phillies defense has undeniably come a long way since spring training. For all their struggles, below-average defenders such as Alec Bohm and Nick Castellanos have made some big plays on this magical run. The acquisition of Brandon Marsh at the deadline also added some much-needed range in the outfield, and the Phils have one of the best defensive catchers in baseball in J.T. Realmuto. 

Still, they're still plenty capable of flubs in the field and have even made some critical errors at times this postseason, even if those never came back to bite them. That is simply not something a team can afford to do against Houston. There is quite literally no margin for errors in this series, so the pressure will be on every Phillie with a glove to play flawlessly in the field. That's a tall task.

Do the Phillies have what it takes to pull off another amazing upset? Of course they do. It's October. We've seen enough wild stuff already that it'd be foolish to assume any matchup is guaranteed to go the way it looks on paper. That's why they play the games, after all. 

But this is about as complete an Astros team as we've seen, and these are just a few of the reasons I believe Dusty Baker will finally get his ring.

Jordan Shusterman is half of @CespedesBBQ and a baseball writer for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter @j_shusterman_.