2021 MLB season predictions: Division races, playoff picks, award winners and more
By Ben Verlander
FOX Sports Baseball Analyst
It finally starts Thursday.
Baseball is upon us — and not the 60-game version but a full, 162-game season.
It’s refreshing. It’s a sense of normalcy. We're heading into the season without having to worry if we will get to Opening Day before it all gets shut down.
It feels different this year. As April 1 gets closer and closer, the excitement gets more and more intense. I don’t think it’s just me, either. There’s more of a "buzz" around baseball this year.
Let’s talk about this season. Not only is it exciting to have baseball back, but it’s also exciting because of the product on the field. The league is stacked with young talent and old talent, exciting rookies and savvy vets — and everything in between.
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TEAM TIERS
The way I see it, each team falls into one of four tiers this season. There are the elites, the contenders, the teams that don’t seem to know what they’re doing and the rebuilders.
Let's break it down.
TIER 1: The elites
Los Angeles Dodgers | Atlanta Braves | New York Yankees | San Diego Padres | New York Mets | Chicago White Sox | Houston Astros
In this tier, we have teams that are ready to win and can win the World Series with the exact roster they have right now. Honestly, I could’ve made an entire tier solely for the Dodgers, but alas, they wind up atop the "Elite" tier.
TIER 2: The contenders
Minnesota Twins | Toronto Blue Jays | St. Louis Cardinals | Tampa Bay Rays | Washington Nationals | Oakland A’s | Los Angeles Angels | Milwaukee Brewers | Boston Red Sox | Kansas City Royals
These are the teams that have strong rosters, and with a few additions, I could see any of them making a run. Arguably what makes me most excited for this season is how many teams we have in this contenders tier. This is a significant number of teams that — if they decide to go out and add the right pieces — can have a real chance of getting to and making a run in the playoffs.
TIER 3: The ummm ... what are they doing?
Chicago Cubs | Philadelphia Phillies | Cincinnati Reds | Cleveland Indians | Arizona Diamondbacks
This is a season unlike any other. Still in the midst of a pandemic and coming off a shortened season that had financial implications, many front offices are sort of in limbo about what exactly to do. Some teams went out and spent money this offseason, but here we find the teams that either claimed they didn’t have money to spend (but did) or seemed they were half in/half out on what to do this season. Note that being in this tier doesn’t mean a team isn't as good as one of the contenders; this tier is more front-office-based.
TIER 4: The rebuilders
Miami Marlins | Seattle Mariners | Detroit Tigers | Baltimore Orioles | Texas Rangers | Colorado Rockies | Pittsburgh Pirates | San Francisco Giants
These teams just aren’t ready to compete this year. Some of them are closer than others. With some of them, you can see a bright future on the horizon. But for others, the future doesn’t seem all that bright. This article is about this season, and the teams in this tier just don’t have a shot in 2021.
DIVISION RACES
In almost every division this season, there is an exciting race to watch, and man is that going to make this season fun down the final stretch.
NL East
In my opinion, the NL East is the best division in all of baseball, and I believe the Braves are the cream of the crop in the East. That said, the Mets went and vastly improved their team this offseason, which should make for a fantastic race with two great teams in the division.
Plus, either the Nationals or the Phillies could make some noise and give the front-runners a run for their money. This division is locked and loaded with talent, and it's the division I'm most excited to keep an eye on all year. Winner: Braves
NL Central
Heading into the offseason, it seemed like anybody (except the Pirates) could win this division this season. However, over the course of the offseason, the Cardinals separated themselves from the bunch. They acquired Nolan Arenado, making them the favorites in the Central, and the Cubs traded away Yu Darvish, sending them in the wrong direction.
Don’t sleep on the Brewers, however. I expect the Brewers to shock some people this season, but I’m not sure it’ll be enough to knock off the Cardinals. Winner: Cardinals
NL West
For the first time in a few years, we have ourselves quite the race in the NL West. This division is a two-team race between the Padres and Dodgers, and I can’t wait to see how it shakes out.
The Padres went out and had arguably the best offseason of any team. However, I believe the Dodgers will end up on top, as they are far and away the most complete team in baseball. Winner: Dodgers
AL East
The Bronx Bombers are going to absolutely rake this year. Their lineup is scary and is going to put up lots of runs. I am also very high on the Blue Jays this year, and think they have a chance to give the Yankees a run for their money. I envision this being more than a two-team race, though.
The Tampa Bay Rays, the defending AL champs, always seem to be there in the end, and the Red Sox appear to have their core in place and are a few pieces away from being a great team once again. In the end, though, the Yankees have too much firepower for anyone else to win this division. Winner: Yankees
AL Central
I’m all-in on the Chicago White Sox this season. The addition of Lance Lynn was huge for their rotation, and a bullpen piece as good as Liam Hendriks is tough to come by. Now pair a really good pitching staff with an electric offense featuring a mix of young studs and savvy vets, including reigning AL MVP Jose Abreu, and this team is set up to win the division this year.
There is a lot of talent in the Central, though. The Twins are one of the best offensive teams in baseball. The Indians, despite losing Francisco Lindor, can still compete. And the Royals could surprise some people. Winner: White Sox
AL West
This could be the one division without much of a battle. The Astros are still a great team, and as much as I want the Angels to put Mike Trout in position to make the playoffs, I don’t think this is the team. The Angels have a great offense, but they won’t get many batters out.
One thing I have learned over the years, however, is to never — and I mean never — count out the Oakland A’s. No matter what their roster looks like, they seemingly always find a way to get hot at the end and be in the playoff picture. Winner: Astros
PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS
NL wild card: Padres and Mets
In the National League, I have the Padres and Mets earning the two wild-card slots. With an incredible offseason, the Padres forced their way into the conversation about the best teams in baseball. The only problem is that the best team in baseball is in their division. The Mets are another team that had a great offseason and put themselves in position to compete with the Braves in a battle I am really looking forward to.
AL wild card: Twins and Blue Jays
In the American League, my two wild-card picks are the Minnesota Twins and Toronto Blue Jays. The Twins are an offensive juggernaut and will play perhaps the best defense in all of baseball. The Blue Jays are my second choice, but they're in a tough division with the Yankees and a Red Sox team that I think is being slept on a little.
One team that I could see surprising people and perhaps slipping into the playoff conversation is the Royals. They have an underrated offense and are going to put up a lot of runs.
National League champion: Braves
My pick to win the NL Pennant is the Atlanta Braves. Last year, the Braves and Dodgers duked it out until Game 7 of the NLCS, when the Dodgers pulled through with a one-run victory. The Braves hung with the Dodgers every step of the way and by no means looked like they didn’t belong. That all happened without their best pitcher, Mike Soroka, whom they will get back at some point this season. They don’t quite have the bullpen they did last year, but I expect Atlanta to add a piece or two.
In the NL playoffs, I see the Dodgers getting the No. 1 seed and facing off against the Padres or Mets after the wild-card game, giving the Braves an easier path against perhaps the Cardinals out of the NL Central. You can’t go wrong picking the Dodgers here, but I’m going to stick with my gut and take Atlanta.
American League champion: Astros
The Astros have the pleasure of being in the worst division in the American League. I don’t foresee a team giving them a run for their money in that division, which matters heading into the playoffs. Look, the Yankees are going to hit and might end up with the No. 1 seed, but pitching wins in the playoffs, and as it currently stands, the Yanks don’t have much of it in their starting rotation. The Astros' acquisition of Jake Odorizzi was massive and filled a clear hole on the roster.
Full disclosure: I originally had the White Sox reaching the World Series out of the AL, but the injury to Eloy Jimenez forced me to reconsider. Yes, he will be back, but it’s not easy to hit, much less come back from a serious injury after six months and step right back in. I expect a runaway division championship out of Houston and, ultimately, an American League pennant.
World Series champion: Braves
After coming up just short in the shortened 2020 season, I think the Braves were able to take some valuable lessons from that hard-fought series with the Dodgers. Most importantly, I think they gained confidence, knowing they could hang right there with the vaunted L.A. Dodgers. One move by the Braves that I love was the addition of Charlie Morton. This starting rotation — featuring Soroka, Max Fried and Ian Anderson — is full of young guys who continue to get better. Adding Morton and his World Series experience to that rotation will do wonders. In 2017, he was the last pitcher out there — the one on the mound to close out the World Series — and I expect the Atlanta Braves to be the last team standing in 2021.
AWARD WATCH
NL Rookie of the Year: Pirates 3B Ke’Bryan Hayes
Pirates fans don’t have a ton to look forward to this year, but Ke’Bryan Hayes should keep them locked in every night. This guy is the real deal, and I expect him to put the world on watch this season.
AL Rookie of the Year: Rays LF Randy Arozarena
We all saw what Randy Arozarena was able to do in the 2020 playoffs. The man dominated like we’ve never seen, setting records for hits and home runs in a single postseason. He is the only player in history to record 10 homers in a single postseason, and he hasn’t even had his official rookie season. For Arozarena, that happens this year, and he is my pick for 2021 AL Rookie of the Year.
NL Cy Young: Mets SP Jacob deGrom
This is the obvious one. Jacob deGrom is the best pitcher in baseball, and the fact the Mets will be a good team this year certainly helps him with voters.
AL Cy Young: Rays SP Tyler Glasnow
I’m all-in on Tyler Glasnow this year. According to Glasnow — this week’s guest on my podcast, "Flippin' Bats with Ben Verlander" — confidence is everything. Well, he is now the ace of the Rays' staff after the departure of Blake Snell, and he has added a pitch that he feels great with already.
NL MVP: Corey Seager
The Dodgers have multiple guys who could win this award, including Corey Seager, Mookie Betts and Cody Bellinger. But I think Seager takes home the MVP award this year. He is on a one-year deal and is about to get paid. He is coming off a World Series MVP and has shown no signs of cooling off in spring training.
I want to note that coming into this season, Ronald Acuna was my pick. I think he'll go 40/40 this year (40 homers and 40 steals), becoming the fifth player to do so and the first since 2006. However, after the spring Seager has had, I can’t pick against him.
AL MVP: Mike Trout
I came so close to taking his teammate Shohei Ohtani, who just might be the most intriguing player in all of baseball. But ultimately, I think it’ll be Mike Trout who takes home this award for a fifth time. It’s easy to overlook just how good Trout is, but after he was quoted in the spring saying he had figured out his swing, I can’t go against him. When Trout says he has figured something out, watch out, because honestly? He’s had it "figured out" all along.
There you have it. The table is set, the predictions have been made, and the excitement has been built. In a couple of days, every team will take the field for the first time. It won’t feel perfectly normal, but it’ll be close.
For the first time in two years, we’ll have baseball in April. The grass will be cut, the standings will be deadlocked, fans will be in the stands, and the smells of hot dogs, pretzels and $12 beers will be filling up stadiums.
It’s that time of year we baseball fans know and love. This one, though, feels different. It feels like there’s more excitement.
Maybe it’s the caliber of the players who are ready to take over. Maybe it’s that we have a full season to look forward to. Or maybe it’s that we are getting back to the game we know and love after far too long.
I know one thing, though: I was born for this. I was born for baseball season — not to play, as I once thought might be the case, but to talk about it. To share my passion and love for the game. To bring my experience, offer a new perspective and change the way this game has been showcased for ages.
I can’t wait to do just that.
In two days, we get to hear those two words we’ve been waiting to hear for a long time: "Play ball!"
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Ben Verlander spent five years in the Detroit Tigers organization. Born and raised in Richmond, Virginia, Verlander was an All-American at Old Dominion University before he joined his brother, Justin, in Detroit as a 14th-round pick of the Tigers in 2013. Follow him on Twitter @Verly32.