Why Michigan's CFP success has yet to be a 'game-changer' with recruits

The conclusion of championship weekend in college football marks the beginning of a recruiting sprint toward the early signing period on Dec. 21. Between now and then, coaches across the country will stockpile frequent-flier miles, hotel points and rental car rewards as they canvas high schools near and far to shore up their 2023 classes.

After a spectacular regular season, Texas Christian head coach Sonny Dykes can embark on the recruiting trail with a shiny new toy at his disposal: the No. 3 seed in this year's College Football Playoff. A whirlwind debut for Dykes featured 12 consecutive wins and a trip to the Big 12 title game after being picked seventh in the league's preseason poll. And while the Horned Frogs were defeated by Kansas State in a thrilling overtime shootout on Saturday, the selection committee believed Dykes' team had done enough to be part of the national semifinals for the first time in school history.

A date with No. 2 Michigan in the Fiesta Bowl awaits.

"I think it is going to be a game-changer," Dykes said on a conference call Sunday afternoon. "I really do. There's already a high level of interest from some really good players across Texas and across the country, and I think this is going to do nothing but enhance our ability to go and recruit some of the best football players in the country."

That type of recruiting boost is exactly what Michigan expected after Harbaugh guided his alma mater to the first CFP berth in school history last season. The Wolverines succeeded in flipping a handful of key targets before the early signing period to compile a 2022 class ranked 12th nationally and third in the Big Ten behind Ohio State and Penn State, according to 247Sports. Three of Michigan's five highest-rated signees didn't commit until the day they inked letters of intent on Dec. 15, 2021.

But any momentum Harbaugh hoped to carry into building his 2023 class evaporated when the annual game of chicken between the NFL and Michigan's head coach intensified. Three consecutive trips to the NFC Championship Game and one Super Bowl appearance as head coach of the San Francisco 49ers were more than enough to catch the eye of franchises in need of a turnaround, especially after Harbaugh resurrected his alma mater in 2021 with one of the best seasons in school history. That Harbaugh's .695 winning percentage as an NFL head coach still ranks sixth in league history speaks to the effectiveness he demonstrated while running the 49ers.

An initial report connected Harbaugh, then 57, to a vacancy with the Las Vegas Raiders last December given his familiarity with the franchise and its owner, Mark Davis, following a two-year stint with the team from 2002-03 as he broke into the coaching profession. A formal interview never materialized, but league interest in Harbaugh persisted for the better part of two months.

The frenzy reached its crescendo in late January when Harbaugh interviewed with the Minnesota Vikings and planned to accept the job if offered. When the Vikings decided to move in a different direction by hiring then-Los Angeles Rams offensive coordinator Kevin O'Connell, who has won 10 of his first 12 games this season, Harbaugh tucked tail and returned to Ann Arbor, where athletic director Warde Manuel gave him a lucrative contract extension that increased his base salary by more than $3 million per year.

What followed was another incredible campaign in charge of the Wolverines. Harbaugh has enjoyed an undefeated start to the season that included a blowout win over Ohio State, and a second consecutive Big Ten title that granted him another trip to the CFP. But now the pesky rumors linking Harbaugh to the pros have resurfaced.

A report from NFL Network on Sunday morning said multiple franchises have begun the background work of vetting Harbaugh as a potential candidate for the upcoming coaching cycle. One source told reporters Tom Pelissero and Ian Rapoport that some within the league believe Harbaugh would listen despite assurances he gave Manuel about closing the door on the NFL when he signed his extension.

"That's a lot of ‘that time of the year' type of speculation," Harbaugh said when asked about the report on a conference call Sunday evening. "But I think — no man knows the future, but I think that people think we have done a good job and are pleased with the job that we have done here at Michigan. They are going to be very happy to learn that I will be back enthusiastically coaching the Wolverines in 2023. And for those people that don't approve of the job we have done or would rather see somebody else coaching here, I think they will be most likely disappointed to learn that I will be back coaching the Wolverines in 2023."

When asked for clarity about whether his response was aimed at potential recruits who are uncertain about his future in Ann Arbor, Harbaugh offered the following:

"Yeah, like I said, it's really biblical. No man knows the future. I can't make any vows of what's going to happen or what's not gonna happen. If you don't mind, I will ask you a question. There's tremendous coaches right here in our league: Ryan Day, Greg Schiano, Bret Bielema, Jeff Brohm. I could go on and on. P.J. Fleck. I think they deserve — with the job that they have done — to be asked the same question."

There is still a layer of ambiguity in Harbaugh's responses that will follow him as he embarks on several weeks of recruiting between now and the early signing period. The assertion that Harbaugh will be back in 2023 felt somewhat undercut by twice uttering "no man knows the future" — one of his favorite, oft-used phrases.

It's fair to wonder how those comments will be received by high schoolers and their parents after last year's dalliance with the Vikings negatively impacted the stability of Michigan's program. 

It must also be stated, though, that Harbaugh's flirtation with the NFL wasn't the only destabilizing factor. Michigan's begrudging adaption to the NIL landscape, and the departures of offensive coordinator Josh Gattis (left for Miami), defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald (returned to the Baltimore Ravens), and director of player personnel Courtney Morgan (went to Washington), all contributed to the recruiting malaise.

Even with those drawbacks, it's surprising to see how underwhelming Michigan's 2023 recruiting class is on paper with the Wolverines having won 25 of their last 27 games. Harbaugh and his coaching staff have assembled a group ranked 21st overall and third in the Big Ten behind Ohio State and Penn State. The Wolverines also have the lowest-rated class of anyone in this year's CFP, with Georgia at No. 2, Ohio State at No. 6 and TCU at No. 18.

As coaches hit the road with fewer than three weeks to the early signing period, Michigan is still without a commitment from anyone rated in the top 100. The Wolverines have just two verbal pledges from players in the top 275 and are struggling to retain the best in-state prospects: Six of this year's top eight players are already committed to other schools. Four four-star prospects have decommitted from Michigan in the last 11 months, with the most recent defection coming from four-star edge rusher Collins Acheampong, who flipped to Miami last week in a decision driven by NIL. Acheampong is the No. 165 overall prospect.

The same struggles don't exist at TCU, where Dykes has already secured commitments from four players rated among the top 265 prospects. The Horned Frogs are on track to sign their best recruiting class since 247Sports began collecting data in 1999, and all of that work was done before the final CFP rankings were revealed. There's a chance things only get better from here.

"Obviously when you can also sell the fact that, look, we are going to have an opportunity to play for a national championship, that's really all you can ask for," Dykes said. "I think that's going to be a huge feather in our cap."

Harbaugh needs the same to be true at Michigan.

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Michael Cohen covers college football and basketball for FOX Sports with an emphasis on the Big Ten. Follow him on Twitter at @Michael_Cohen13.