Why it is foolish to already hand Alabama the CFB championship
PARADISE VALLEY, Ariz. -- A couple of days after the playoff teams were announced in early December, I went on a radio show to discuss the matchups.
“I don’t know why they’re even playing this thing,” one of the hosts said. “It’s all about who’s going to lose to Alabama.”
Thus kicked off a recurring theme.
Over the past couple of weeks, everyone from my doctor to an Uber driver has asked me some variation of, “Do you think anybody can beat Alabama?” Upon arriving at the Fiesta Bowl media hotel Tuesday, a bellhop asked if I was in town for the Clemson-Ohio State Fiesta Bowl. I told him that I was.
“I don’t know if anybody can beat Alabama this year,” he said unsolicited. “They’re just so deep.”
It may well be that Nick Saban’s top-ranked team hoists the trophy come Jan. 9 in Tampa. It may be that the Tide roll over Washington in Saturday’s Peach Bowl.
But are we really going back down this road again? Have we learned nothing from college football postseason pasts?
2002: Miami was unbeatable right up until it faced Ohio State.
2005: USC was the Greatest Team of All-Time before losing to Vince Young.
2006: Ohio State went undefeated in the regular season before losing to a one-loss Florida team 41-14.
And or course, two years ago, playoff No. 4 seed Ohio State beat playoff No. 1 seed Alabama. Didn’t I hear that the Buckeyes are in these year’s playoff, too?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3pX2i8tpgGk
I get why people are skeptical of upstart Washington’s ability to compete with Alabama. The baffling part is why they’re discounting two programs on the other side of the bracket that have already competed with Alabama.
Ohio State beat the Tide in that aforementioned 2014 playoff game; Clemson lost to them by five points in last year’s national title game.
“I give credit to Alabama, that’s a great program,” Ohio State defensive end Tyquan Lewis said Wednesday. “But we’ve got a great program here too.”
Indeed. The Buckeyes are a mere 61-5 under Urban Meyer.
“You can’t doubt Alabama, they’re a great team,” Clemson running back Wayne Gallman said. “But that’s the good thing about this playoff. All the great teams play, it’s great competition, and you can’t take anything away from anyone.”
It’s hard to take anything away from Clemson when its lost one regular-season game in the past two years.
No question, Alabama was the most dominant team in the country this regular season, starting with the fact it's the only playoff team that went undefeated. In doing so, it produced both a more explosive offense (6.6 yards play, up from 5.9 in 2015) and more dominant defense (3.9 yards per play allowed, down from 4.3) than last year’s national championship squad.
Hence, all of the “How do you beat Alabama?” stories currently being written.
But bowl season is not necessarily an extension of the regular season, which ended nearly four weeks ago. Weird things happen, like 6-6 Baylor dominating 10-2 Boise State and Minnesota holding Washington State to a season-low 12 points in a bowl it nearly boycotted.
And in those lower bowls you’re dealing with teams that aren’t necessarily on even footing to begin with. This is the playoff, where everybody’s teeming with four- and five-star recruits.
“When you get to the College Football Playoff, talent is pretty even across the board with the teams,” Ohio State linebacker Chris Worley said. “You may have certain matchups where talent is overwhelming for one of the sides, but for the most part, when you get to this point in the season, talent is pretty even. It comes down to who wants it more and who’s better prepared.”
If Alabama does pick up right where it left off against Florida in the SEC championship game, then sure, things might not end well for the other playoff teams. Perhaps more pertinently, Ohio State and Clemson likely need to elevate their play to make it out of Glendale.
Ohio State’s Achilles' heel most of the season was its passing game, as Clemson safety Jadar Johnson so bluntly assessed this week when he said of Buckeyes QB J.T. Barrett, “We've definitely faced quarterbacks better than him” and “I don't think he's a very accurate passer.”
The Buckeyes will be hard-pressed to beat one, much less two Top 4 teams with a one-dimensional offense. Not just Barrett but Ohio State’s receivers need to step up -- something not uncommon for Urban Meyer’s past championship teams.
“[Meyer] is great at what he does," Buckeyes star running back Curtis Samuel said. “His record shows you give him some time he definitely is going to be able to pick apart the defense.”
Clemson’s issue has been turnovers -- 24 of them, more than 80 percent of all FBS teams. That could be problematic given it’s facing an Ohio State team ranked third nationally in turnover margin (+16) and second in defensive touchdowns with seven.
Alabama of course is first with 10.
But Clemson committed a bunch of turnovers last year, too (27). It still throttled a top four Oklahoma team in a semifinal and took Alabama to the wire a week later.
As for the Tide’s weak spot this season … well, they really didn’t have one. At least not that bellhops and Uber drivers could easily detect.
But Alabama also played just one team (USC) ranked in the committee’s final Top 10. The Tide must now beat two of the top four to take home their fifth championship in eight years.
It’s admittedly unwise to pick against Alabama. The Tide don’t lose football games often.
But neither do Ohio State or Clemson.
Enough with the preemptive coronations.