Why Baylor can win the playoff: Nasty defense, tons of firepower

By Bruce Feldman
Published

EDITOR'S NOTE: FOX Sports college football columnists Stewart Mandel and Bruce Feldman think a handful of teams have a legitimate shot at hoisting the College Football Playoff trophy this season. This week, they'll make a case for each of those squads.

BAYLOR BEARS

1. What we like: Nobody in the country has a more destructive tandem on its D-line than Baylor's Shawn Oakman (19 TFLs) and Andrew Billings (11.5 TFLs). Billings doesn't get as much hype as the towering former Penn State transfer, but ask Big 12 coaches and they'll tell you the 300-pound strongman is the most disruptive defensive player in the conference. Steady Beau Blackshear, a 300-pound senior, is also an All-Big 12 pick. The Bears have nine starters back on defense, and don't forget about DE Jamal Palmer, who had 11 TFLs in 2013 before missing most of last year with a knee injury.

Baylor's O-line should be almost as good as the D-line. BU has all five starters back, led by All-American LT Spencer Drango. That should help ease the transition to new starting QB Seth Russell, who looked good in the action he saw in 2014 while Bryce Petty nursed his ailing back. Russell has a good arm and is even more of a running threat than Petty. The Bears, again, are loaded at receiver with KD Cannon and Corey Coleman, their latest stars. Shock Linwood also is back after running for 1,252 yards and 16 TDs last year. That's a lot of firepower for Art Briles. Oh, and keep an eye out for Tre'Von Armstead, a 6-6, 270-pound tight end who runs in the 4.6s.

2. What concerns us: As nasty as the Bears' D-line will be, there is a hole that needs filling. Linebacker Bryce Hager was a tackling machine for the Bears. Former JC transfer Grant Campbell now will be trying to take over. A back-loaded schedule affords Campbell -- and Russell -- some time to get settled in, but it also doesn't give the Bears much wiggle room if they lose a little focus.

They have three of their four games in November on the road, and none of those three is an easy place to play -- at K-State, at Oklahoma State (where the Bears lost by a combined 67 points in their past two visits) and at TCU. The other game is against Oklahoma. 

3. What would the committee think? Let's not sugarcoat things. The Bears' non-conference schedule is, again, pretty dreadful -- although it's a little tougher than last year's. (Rice is an upgrade from Buffalo). Baylor has less margin for error than probably any Power 5 school with a real shot of making the playoff. Still, I doubt if the Bears go 12-0, they'd be passed by four other teams, especially if a few of them are one-loss teams. Then again, FSU was unbeaten -- a defending national champ AND riding a 28-game winning stream -- and yet there was some sentiment in the committee to move the Seminoles further down.

So Baylor not only needs to win them all, but it wouldn't hurt if they were dominant in the way they win them all, too. Go 11-1 against this schedule and they'd probably have the weakest argument among Power 5 teams. A few things would help, though. First, for OU to win at Tennessee and for the Sooners to re-emerge as a Top-15 team; for Texas to at least be competitive at Notre Dame; and for Texas Tech to win at Arkansas and get back to being a Top-25 team.