Which big-name college football assistant will reach the CFP first?

Kendal Briles. Ted Roof. Tommy Rees. Garrett Riley. Alex Grinch.

It's gonna be tough for any of these men to make the College Football Playoff in the 2023 season. But I found myself wondering which of these coordinators would be first to do so at their current stop, if at all?

Here's my breakdown.

TCU OC Kendal Briles

As I wrote in the roundtable last week, Texas Christian responded to losing 2022 Broyles Award winner Garrett Riley — baby brother to USC coach Lincoln Riley — with the hire of former Arkansas offensive coordinator Kendal Briles.

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In a Big 12 as thick through the middle as Homer Simpson after a dozen doughnuts and a six-pack of Duffy's, I'm itching to find out if Briles can muster the kind of explosive offense TCU showed itself capable of last season when it finished as national title runner-up.

Remember, this is a team that was thought to be so good that the College Football Playoff selection committee picked it ahead of Alabama, Utah, Tennessee and USC as the fourth-best team in the country despite losing the Big 12 title to Kansas State.

At Arkansas, Briles put together the nation's No. 7 rushing offense (236.5 yards per game) and pushed Arkansas to its third-highest rushing yardage in a season (3,075 yards) since 2003. With quality dual-threat quarterback Chandler Morris and former Alabama running back Trey Sanders in the backfield, there's reason to believe TCU could be the best rushing team in the country. And they might need to be from the outset against Week 1 opponent Colorado.

Oklahoma DC Ted Roof

Oklahoma defensive coordinator Ted Roof needs to produce a championship-caliber defense. The Sooners were awful on third down in 2022 and gave up 30 points per game — good enough for 99th out of 131 teams. With the Sooners handing out a number of scholarships to defensive transfers, including three expected to play important snaps this season — defensive end Rondell Bothroyd, defensive tackle Jacob Lacey and linebacker Dasan McCullough — all eyes will be on Roof and how his unit plays, particularly during the conference slate.

There's little doubt about Roof owning the experience — 36 years as a college football coach and a defensive coordinator at 12 stops — and acumen to pull off a dramatic turnaround of the defense. But gone are the days when Oklahoma could simply outscore most of its opponents.

And if Roof doesn't find a way to stop the majority of teams in the Big 12, there might be some doubt about what he can do against the vaunted SEC.

Alabama OC Tommy Rees

This is the worst quarterback room the Tide have seen since Jacob Coker, Cooper Bateman and Alec Morris were around in 2015. That was also the year that Derrick Henry rushed for 2,209 yards and carried the mail — 395 rushes in one season. 

No one has carried the rock that many times since. But Rees might try to get Jase McClellan close. He has been brought in to return Alabama's offense from a range player to a brawler. From the kind that's built like Cammy White and return it to one built like Zangief.

Rees also will work with a brand new coordinator on defense in Kevin Steele, and he can't totally rely on it to carry the team if the offense sputters. And it might. Rees doesn't even know who the starting quarterback will be at Alabama in Week 1.

Briles at least has Joe Gillespie. Roof has Jeff Lebby. Rees probably got the worst hand of any of the men listed here. It's not an impossible lift, but he's gonna have to bend his knees and engage his core if Bama is gonna return to the CFP this season.

Clemson OC Garrett Riley

The short-but-punchy fact is that Garrett Riley did more at TCU with considerably less than Clemson did during the same period.

The Tigers haven't seen a 3,000-yard passer since Trevor Lawrence left in 2020. 

And they haven't seen a 3,000-yard passer and 1,000-yard rusher in the same year since 2019. Lawrence threw for 3,665 with 36 TDs and eight INTs, while Travis Etienne had 2,046 yards from scrimmage, including 1,614 on the ground, with 23 total TDs that year.

At TCU last year, Max Duggan passed for 3,698 with 32 TDs to eight INTs, while Kendre Miller accounted for 1,515 from scrimmage, including 1,399 on the ground with 17 total TDs.

TCU, a small private school in North Texas, averaged 38.8 a game — ninth best in the country — gave up 29 a game — 91st out of 131 in the country — and finished as national title runner-up. Clemson averaged almost a TD less per game (33.2).

The man who coordinated that TCU offense to those numbers, Riley, is at Clemson now. With Cade Klubnik and Will Shipley in the backfield, he's got talent enough to produce a 3,000-yard passer, a 1,000-yard rusher and push the Tigers toward 40 a game or the same average that got Michigan (40.4) into the CFP, too.

USC DC Alex Grinch

Grinch doesn't need to plot to steal Christmas, run on hatred for Hooville or even field a great defense for USC to make the CFP. He just needs to field an opportunistic one that can get turnovers, tackles for loss and keep offenses out of the end zone. And he's done that and then some in two of those three categories as defensive coordinator at Washington State, Ohio State, Oklahoma and USC.

In Year 1 in Southern California, Grinch's Trojans finished tied for fifth place in turnovers created (29) and tied for third in INTs (19).

For the man who believes 24 takeaways by the defense equals at least nine wins for the team, 29 feels like a damn good number. But there's evidence to suggest 24 takeaways doesn't mean your defense will play for a national title. In USC's case, at least in 2022, it doesn't even mean you'll win the Pac-12 title.

Only '04 USC won a national title while leading the country in takeaways with 38.

However, none of the teams who finished among the top four in FBS in takeaways — Illinois (32), Western Kentucky (32), Louisville (30), Middle Tennessee (30) — played in the CFP. The same is true of the four teams that finished among the top four in FBS in INTS — Illinois (24), Middle Tennessee (20), Western Kentucky (19) and USC (19). Take it to fumble recoveries, and you'll find once again none of the top four teams in the sport played in the CFP — Duke (16), Louisville (15), Buffalo (15) and Florida.

Look at sacks: Louisville (50), Pittsburgh (48), Liberty (45) and James Madison (38). Look at tackles for loss: Liberty (121), Clemson (111), Southern Miss (108) and — Lord, help me — Oklahoma (104).

Now you're right to question the competition Liberty faces versus USC, but you'd be missing the forest for the trees. The name of the game isn't best stat, but best team. And the suits in the boardroom voting on the four best teams in the sport tend to pick teams that routinely A) play a Power 5 conference schedule B) rank among the top 15 in the sport in putting points on the board, C) stop people from putting points on the board.

With Lincoln Riley calling plays and Caleb Williams running the offense, USC's defense should not feel pressure to be the best unit in South Central, let alone the Pac-12, let alone the country. But they damn well better be in the top 15 of this bloated 131-team sport if they're looking to win a national title.

By now it shouldn't surprise you to know defending national champion Georgia had the No. 5 scoring offense and No. 5 scoring defense in the country. In 2021 when UGA won it, the Dawgs fielded the No. 9 scoring offense and No. 1 scoring defense.

In 2020 when Alabama won the national title, the Tide fielded the No. 2 scoring offense and No. 13 scoring defense. 

You have to get to 2019 before you see a national champ with a scoring defense ranked outside the top 15 — LSU, which finished No. 33, but fielded the best offense the sport has seen since God was a child.

But take it to 2018, and you'll see national champ Clemson ranked No. 4 in scoring offense No. 1 in scoring defense.

To put a sledgehammer period on this point, here are the national champs since 2000 who have led the FBS in either turnovers, sacks, interceptions, fumble recoveries or tackles for loss in the same year that they won the national title:

• 2018 Clemson (led FBS in TFL with 136.0 and in defensive sacks with 54.0)
• 2016 Clemson (led FBS in TFL with 130.0)
• 2015 Alabama (led FBS with 51.0 defensive sacks)
• 2013 Florida State (led FBS with 26 defensive interceptions)
• 2004 USC (led FBS with 38 takeaways and in defensive sacks with 46.0)

That's just five teams in 20 years. And lest we forget that 2015 Bama watched Henry rush for 2,200 yards.

The Trojans had the No. 4 scoring offense in the country and 94th-ranked scoring defense (29.2 points per game allowed) in 2022. That ain't gonna get it done, bigun.

And Grinch hasn't had a team finish higher than 28th while working for Riley, and that was in the mostly junk statistical year of 2020. Every other year with Riley has seen Grinch's defense finish 60th or worse in scoring defense.

You can't win with an imbalance. And Grinch's defense, coupled with Riley's offense hasn't been carrying its weight.

So who's got the best shot to make the CFP among their group of hotshot coordinators?

Given that Clemson has fielded a top-15 scoring defense in four of the last seven years and still managed to rank No. 22 in the country in its first year post-Brent Venables, I'm inclined to believe Garrett Riley will find a way to get Clemson and extra seven points per game — pushing the Tigers to a 40-point average — in 2023.

I'm inclined to believe that that machine in Clemson, South Carolina, has more untapped potential left under the hood and Riley is gonna find it. I'm inclined to believe that Garrett Riley returns to the CFP before big brother Lincoln, especially with the Trojans headed to a loaded Big Ten in a year's time. 

Hell, with the reigning Heisman winner at QB, a new athletic director yet to be hired and a taste of the good life, Lincoln Riley ought to sell out for a bid to the CFP, let alone the one item he has yet to win as an assistant or head coach — a national title.

After all, what would family dinner be like in Muleshoe, Texas, if Garrett slams a fist on the dinner table heavy from the weight of his championship ring while his big brother continues to search for his own? If that happened, I only wish I could cover a plate and listen.

RJ Young is a national college football writer and analyst for FOX Sports and the host of the podcast "The Number One College Football Show." Follow him on Twitter at @RJ_Young and subscribe to "The Number One College Football Show" on YouTube.