What Georgia's big win, SEC chaos mean for Ohio State and Michigan

Shortly after the clock reached zero at the conclusion of last year’s Orange Bowl, a photo began circulating through the Michigan sector of Twitter. The picture captured wide receiver Andrel Anthony, quarterback J.J. McCarthy and running back Donovan Edwards — all of whom were freshmen during the 2021 season — watching Georgia celebrate its lopsided beatdown of the Wolverines to reach the national title game.

Coupled with a postgame assurance from tailback Blake Corum that Michigan would return to the College Football Playoff in 2022, that image became synonymous with the program’s renaissance under once-maligned head coach Jim Harbaugh — a visual embodiment of how badly the Wolverines wanted to claw their way back to national relevance after winning more than 10 games in a season just once since Lloyd Carr retired. If last season served as Michigan’s long-awaited breakthrough under Harbaugh, then this season has been about proving it wasn't a fluke.

But any path Harbaugh has toward capturing his school’s first national championship since 1997 seems destined to include a rematch with Georgia, whose comprehensive 27-13 win over Tennessee on Saturday recertified head coach Kirby Smart’s team as both the best in college football and the odds-on favorite to hoist a trophy come January. Ohio State is the only other Big Ten team with a chance to reach the playoff after Illinois was upended by Michigan State this weekend, and the Buckeyes will be asked to circumvent the same eye-widening, Bulldog-shaped roadblock if they finish undefeated.

So let’s explore what Georgia’s win means for the playoff picture.

Where does this leave the SEC? 

In addition to lending some clarity to the College Football Playoff rankings, Saturday’s showdown between Georgia and Tennessee was almost certainly an elimination game in the SEC East given both schools are in the same division. The Bulldogs improved to 9-0 overall and 6-0 in the conference, while the Volunteers fell to 8-1 overall and 4-1 in the league.

Georgia will be favored in each of its remaining games against Mississippi State (road), Kentucky (road) and Georgia Tech (home) with an expectation to finish the regular season undefeated for the second consecutive season. Advancing to the SEC Championship Game with an unblemished record all but assures the Bulldogs of a spot in the playoff regardless of what happens on Dec. 3 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.

Tennessee’s remaining schedule includes three teams who entered the weekend unranked in Missouri (home), South Carolina (road) and Vanderbilt (road). As with the Bulldogs, who are expected to vault to No. 1 in the forthcoming CFP rankings, the Volunteers have a strong chance of winning out to finish the regular season 11-1 and give themselves a chance to reach the playoff — depending on how the committee views Saturday’s loss. 

Across the conference, LSU controls the SEC West race after beating Alabama on Saturday night. The Tigers (7-2, 5-1 SEC) already hold the tiebreaker over Ole Miss courtesy of a 45-20 win over the Rebels last month. Head coach Brian Kelly's team can earn a trip to Atlanta with three more wins to close the regular season, and a victory in the SEC Championship Game could leave the conference with three legitimate contenders: 12-1 Georgia, 11-1 Tennessee and 11-2 LSU.

What outcomes are possible in the Big Ten?

A surprising home loss to embattled Michigan State on Saturday extinguished No. 16 Illinois’ slim chance of reaching the playoff after a fairytale start to the season under second-year head coach Bret Bielema.

But the Illini still control their own destiny in the topsy-turvy Big Ten West, where a 3-2 conference record places them a game ahead of Wisconsin, Purdue, Iowa and Minnesota — all of whom are tied at 3-3 in league play. Another season of choppy performances means whichever team wins the West can do little more than play the role of spoiler in the league’s title game on Dec. 3.

The same can’t be said for the Big Ten East, where either Ohio State or Michigan will advance to Indianapolis undefeated barring an unexpected slip-up between now and their highly anticipated matchup in Columbus later this month. The winner of that game should be a sizable favorite over whichever challenge the Big Ten West puts forth, and will expect to reach the CFP unscathed. The loser would likely end the regular season 11-1 and harbor some uncertainty over its playoff candidacy compared to teams from other conferences with identical records.

There’s also a scenario where the winner of Ohio State-Michigan suffers an upset in the Big Ten title game to produce a pair of 11-1 finishers. That's when the league's lack of top-end talent this season could be used against the Buckeyes and Wolverines. 

How would a one-loss Big Ten team compare to a one-loss SEC team?

This is where things get dicey for Michigan, whose Charmin-soft nonconference schedule was the primary reason the Wolverines sat outside the top four in the initial CFP rankings last week. Blowout wins over Colorado State (51-7), Hawaii (56-10) and UConn (59-0) — all three of which have first-year head coaches — did little to impress the selection committee.

If the quality of opponents becomes an important factor for untangling a cluster of teams with 11-1 records, the Wolverines might find themselves in an uncomfortable position. Pro Football Focus rates Michigan’s strength of schedule 83rd nationally and 22nd out of 23 Power 5 teams in the initial CFP rankings. Among contenders, only Clemson, whose strength of schedule ranks 87th nationally, will have played a worse slate than Harbaugh’s group — and the Tigers were blasted by Notre Dame on Saturday.

This criterion is much more amenable to the Buckeyes, whose season-opening win over Notre Dame trumps anything the Wolverines have on their nonconference résumé. Ohio State’s strength of schedule ranks 24th nationally and compares favorably with the handful of well-regarded teams from the SEC: LSU at 44, Georgia at 42 and Tennessee at 19.

Those kinds of perennially difficult schedules are why the selection committee adores the SEC. 

Michael Cohen covers college football and basketball for FOX Sports with an emphasis on the Big Ten. Follow him on Twitter at @Michael_Cohen13.