Michigan State vs. Toledo Prediction, Odds, Picks for College Football Week 1

By FOX Sports Research
Published

The Michigan State Spartans will kick off their 2026 college football season against the Toledo Rockets at Spartan Stadium on Friday in a Week 1 matchup on FS1.

A new era begins for both programs, with new head coaches leading the way. The Spartans hired Pat Fitzgerald to turn around a program that reached the four-team College Football Playoff in 2015 but hasn't posted a winning season since 2021. With a revamped roster and plenty of new faces, Fitzgerald will get his first look at what this new-look Michigan State team is capable of.

Toledo also enters a new era under Mike Jacobs after Jason Candle left to become the head coach at UConn. Jacobs has won everywhere he's been, compiling a 94-23 career record as a head coach. Now, he'll bring that success to the MAC and look to keep the Rockets among the conference's top programs. However, with a new coaching staff and a heavily revamped roster, Toledo could experience some early growing pains against a Big Ten opponent.

Let’s take a look at the odds for Michigan State vs. Toledo at FanDuel Sportsbook as of Sept. 4.

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  Toledo @ Michigan State Odds

Moneyline

  • Michigan State: -375 (bet $10 to win $12.67 total)
  • Toledo: +295 (bet $10 to win $39.50 total)

Spread 

  • Michigan State -9.5: -108 (bet $10 to win $19.26 total)
  • Toledo +9.5: -112 (bet $10 to win $18.93 total)

Over/Under

  • Over 47.5: -105 (bet $10 to win $19.52 total)
  • Under 47.5: -115 (bet $10 to win $18.70 total)
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   Toledo @ Michigan State Prediction, Pick

From FOX Sports Research

  • With new head coaches leading both programs into the 2026 season, Pat Fitzgerald takes over at Michigan State while Mike Jacobs begins his tenure at Toledo. Fitzgerald will lean on transfer running back Cam Edwards to provide explosive plays for the Spartans' offense and help control the clock. More importantly, Fitzgerald brings a proven track record of success in the Big Ten. He led Northwestern to the Big Ten Championship Game in both 2018 and 2020, a level of success the Wildcats have not come close to replicating since his departure. Defense was also a staple of Fitzgerald's best teams at Northwestern. In 2020, the Wildcats ranked fifth in the FBS in scoring defense, allowing just 15.9 points per game. His 2015 team ranked 12th in scoring defense (18.6 PPG) and 13th in total defense (318.9 YPG), while Northwestern posted four top-25 scoring defense finishes and five top-25 finishes in takeaways during his tenure. Turning Michigan State around won't happen overnight, but Fitzgerald has already proven he can build a winning program in the conference. Friday's opener against Toledo gives him an opportunity to make an immediate statement and set the tone for his first season in East Lansing.

   The Pick: Michigan State -9.5

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