The Razorback Straw Man Stat 11-4

Oct 8, 2016; Fayetteville, AR, USA; Arkansas Razorbacks mascot Tusk IV prior to the game against the Alabama Crimson Tide at Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nelson Chenault-USA TODAY Sports

When we listen to sports shows here in Arkansas and someone calls in upset, often times we hear “well they aren’t too bad, they’re 11-4 in their last 15 games.” Is this stat really indicative of progress or is it a number that paints a false narrative of progress?

11-4. The Razorback record for their last 15 games. We’ve all heard it a thousand times but has anyone thought about the numbers within this stat?

Earlier this week I was listening to some angry callers and that’s all I heard the radio host saying. Most people would quickly lose steam in what was originally a valid point once this stat got brought up. The stat is meant to show that the Hogs are on this trend upwards and that nothing is wrong. So I decided to take a closer look at the numbers. Wouldn’t you know it, the house the little piggies built was made of straw.

Who are the 15

Who Is It Fans Want To Compete With

These are the last 15 teams that Arkansas has played. Out of these 15 teams, they have beaten 11 and lost to 4. Obviously, this can only mean the Hogs are getting better correct? Well, let’s begin this by asking ourselves a serious question and giving an honest answer. What conference and caliber of a team are we looking for Arkansas to be competitive against?

If you answered non-power five conference teams, then you may stop reading. Arkansas is, in fact, competitive against non-power five teams. However, if you said that the Razorbacks should be competitive with their peers in the SEC and P5 opponents then this is for you.

Jan 2, 2016; Memphis, TN, USA; Arkansas Razorbacks running back Alex Collins (3) carries the ball past Kansas State Wildcats quarterback Jonathan Banks (9) during the second half at Liberty Bowl. Arkansas Razorbacks defeated the Kansas State Wildcats 45-23. Mandatory Credit: Justin Ford-USA TODAY Sports

Power 5 Record 7-4

OK, now that we have taken the filler out of the meat, let’s take a look at what we have left. In just power 5 matchups, the Razorbacks are 7-4. Not too bad right? Well, as we all know, not all power 5 conferences are created equal. It’s a toss up as to who is worse from top to bottom between the Pac12 and the Big12. Which as it turns out, the two out of conference P5 teams we played are pretty bad Big 12 teams.

No disrespect to head coach Bill Snyder but Kansas State was hardly setting the world on fire last year on their way to the Liberty Bowl. The Wildcats went 6-6 in the regular season and 3-6 in the Big 12. I mean, they got beat by a 5-7 Texas last year. So to say it was a big, or even quality, win is just false.

What about that win at TCU in the start of the 2016 season? Well at the time, it was massive. Arkansas took, at the time, number 15 TCU to double overtime and won on the road. I’ll get into all the overtime wins later but for now let’s go ahead and see where TCU ranks now. Oh, that’s right. They fell out of the AP Top 25. They’re currently 4-3 and 1-2 in the Big 12 with losses to Oklahoma and West Virginia. Neither are too bad but one must remember, they only beat Kansas by 1 point. Pretty easy to see they are not that great this year.

Oct 15, 2016; Fayetteville, AR, USA; Arkansas Razorbacks head coach Bret Bielema talks to Ole Miss Rebels quarterback Chad Kelly (10) after the game at Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium. Arkansas defeated Ole Miss 34-30. Mandatory Credit: Nelson Chenault-USA TODAY Sports

The SEC Record 5-4

Finally, we are getting a look at the most important part of the stat to fans and coaches. In the SEC, out of these 15 games, Arkansas is 5-4. Again not bad right? Well, let’s have a look at those wins.

The ONLY team that the Razorback defense has done anything remotely impressive to on this list is LSU. They held Leonard Fournette to under 100 yards that game, which not a lot of teams can say from last year. However, who watching that game didn’t know what Les Miles was going to do? The “great defensive plan” was just to stack the box. Everyone knew if you shut down Leonard, you would win.

Minus the two overtime wins, you are left with MIZZOU from last year and Ole Miss from this year. You know MIZZOU. It was the team that completely imploded last year. The Tigers went 5-7 last year with 1-7 in the SEC. Does this sound like a great benchmark win for Arkansas to you? Yeah, me either.

Ole Miss wasn’t a bad win. You thought I was going to say they were all bad wins? The Rebels did hang a bunch of points on Bama, so that has to count for something. Now is a fantastic win? No. They just lost to LSU and their interim head coach.

`Nov 7, 2015; Oxford, MS, USA; Arkansas Razorbacks tight end Hunter Henry (84) laterals the ball as he is tackled by Mississippi Rebels defensive back Tony Bridges (1) during overtime at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium. Arkansas won 53-52. Mandatory Credit: Matt Bush-USA TODAY Sports

End Of Regulation

Overtime. Last year, Arkansas took Auburn to four overtimes to get the win and then had to take Ole Miss into single OT. Then, in the beginning of this year, the Hogs went into double OT with TCU.

It doesn’t take Jon Gruden to tell you that the reason a game reaches OT is because the defense can’t make stops. Even Bret Bielema said the reason he went ahead for two points in the first overtime against Ole Miss last year was because he knew his defense couldn’t stop them from scoring.

So if we take away the cupcakes over time, you’re left with 4-4 out of this list of 15 games. I don’t know about you but I am starting to get a better picture of where the Arkansas team is really at. In those four wins, you have wins over two terrible teams with MIZZOU and Kansas State. So as far as decent wins without OT, the Hogs are 2-4 with wins over LSU last year and Ole Miss this year. That’s how many games Arkansas has played DECENTLY on defense and won.

Oct 8, 2016; Fayetteville, AR, USA; Arkansas Razorbacks head coach Bret Bielema reacts a call during the first quarter against the Alabama Crimson Tide at Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nelson Chenault-USA TODAY Sports

They Won. What’s Your Point?

The point about the overtime is that it hasn’t just been this year that the Razorback defense was terrible. It has been that way for almost two seasons now. It just so happens that last year, Arkansas had the offense to outscore their opponents. The difference between this year and last year’s success is literally the offensive line. If the Hogs had the offensive line from last year, they would probably have more success this year. That said, the defense shouldn’t be this bad for 2 years.

So then what does this say about how they are really trending? If you look at it honestly, it’s easy to see that the Hogs are trending down. Something has to change in leadership of the defense without a doubt. It clearly hasn’t been working for a while and if they ever want to actually be competitive in the SEC, it will have to change. As for the offensive line, I would say first-year position coach, Kurt Anderson, should get one more year. Give him a little more time to get with the system and see what he can do.

I think it’s pretty clear that if you look at the 11-4 record in an honest way, you will see that it’s a misleading stat. When you break it down and look at the wins for what they really are, you can start to get a better picture of what is really going on. Arkansas has gotten worse from last year. I do, however, have faith that it will get corrected and Bret Bielema will do great things here. Woo Pig!