Ohio State feeling the pressure in Penn State matchup

For a program like Ohio State, where finishing 11-2 and winning the Rose Bowl last season was considered subpar, the prism through which players and coaches are judged allows for the most minuscule margins of error. If competing for national championships is the expectation, then greatness is the standard to which the Buckeyes will be held.

Head coach Ryan Day and quarterback C.J. Stroud experienced the peculiarities that mindset triggers in the wake of last week’s 54-10 disposal of Iowa at Ohio Stadium. The opening question in Day’s postgame news conference probed the offense's red zone shortcomings in the first half. And there were moments in Stroud’s media session when he needed to defend his performance after throwing for 286 yards, four touchdowns and one interception. 

Opposing coaches and players are keenly aware of how heavy those expectations are for Ohio State to carry, and flattering the Buckeyes with compliments — many of which are accurate, deserved and genuine — serves a secondary purpose of strengthening the burden. So when Penn State head coach James Franklin referenced the Heisman Trophy in response to questions about Stroud throughout the week, he was telling the truth and generating headlines at the same time.

"I think at the end of the day, you know, their trigger man is what makes them go," Franklin said. "He's the one that distributes the ball to all those different playmakers and does a really good job doing it. He throws on the run as well as he throws from the pocket, which is somewhat unusual. Again, he's leading the Heisman race for a reason." 

The showdown between Ohio State and Penn State is one of the marquee games in college football on Saturday. Here’s the Week 9 scouting report in the Big Ten: 

The matchups 

No. 2 Ohio State (7-0, 4-0 Big Ten) at No. 13 Penn State (6-1, 3-1 Big Ten)
Game time: Noon ET on FOX
Odds: Buckeyes favored by 15 (per FOX Bet, as of Thursday afternoon) 

Rutgers (4-3, 1-3 Big Ten) at Minnesota (4-3, 1-3 Big Ten) 
Game time: 2:30 p.m. ET on Big Ten Network 
Odds: Gophers favored by 14 

No. 17 Illinois (6-1, 3-1 Big Ten) at Nebraska (3-4, 2-2 Big Ten) 
Game time: 3:30 p.m. ET
Odds: Illini favored by 7.5

Northwestern (1-6, 1-3 Big Ten) at Iowa (3-4, 1-3 Big Ten) 
Game time: 3:30 p.m. ET 
Odds: Hawkeyes favored by 11 

Michigan State (3-4, 1-3 Big Ten) at No. 4 Michigan (7-0, 4-0 Big Ten) 
Game time: 7:30 p.m. ET 
Odds: Wolverines favored by 23 

Game of the week: No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 13 Penn State

Earlier this week, Day told reporters he spends the 48 hours prior to kickoff mapping out contingency plans for each game. He brainstorms all the different things an opponent might try against the Buckeyes — swapping coverages, exotic blitzes, different defensive fronts — and hashes out counters as Ohio State’s offensive play caller.

Most of his worst-case-scenario planning falls by the wayside if opposing defenses stick to the tendencies they’ve shown on film, but Day said he doesn’t feel ready without understanding his potential detours.

"We say sometimes, you’re chasing ghosts," Day said of the times when that extra work proves fruitless, "but I’ve been in games before where we didn’t chase those ghosts, and we didn’t have answers and that’s not a good feeling. It’s our job as coaches to have answers and put our players in the best position to be successful."

A few days later, Franklin was asked if games like this week’s clash at Beaver Stadium are ripe for the underdog to try something new, to do something it hasn’t shown on film with the hope of closing the gap against, in this case, a 15-point favorite flush with talent in all three phases. Franklin’s answer was the kind of response that might encourage Day to scribble things out on his legal pad between now and noon ET Saturday — especially given the presence of former Ohio State quarterbacks coach Mike Yurcich (2019 season) as the second-year offensive coordinator for Penn State.  

"You’re gonna have to do some things this week on offense, defense and special teams that are gonna give Ohio State pause and say, ‘Well, what are they doing here? This isn’t what's expected,’" Franklin said. "And whether that is a different formation to run the same play or a different motion to run a play, whether that’s a different personnel group to run a play or whether that’s a different scheme, a totally different scheme that you’re running this week that you haven’t shown out of a similar formation or personnel group.  

"Defensively (it might be) a different front or package, blitz package, you’re definitely gonna try to do some things that give them pause as a coaching staff and give them hesitation as players. Hopefully (with) the quarterback you can do some things so that pre-snap he’s not as confident of what you’re going to do post-snap. People talk all the time about quarterbacks, but it’s really at every position, right? When does the game slow down for them? When they’re able to anticipate, when they have a pretty good idea pre-snap what you’re going to do post-snap."

Though Stroud will undoubtedly have his opportunities to test a Penn State secondary featuring several NFL prospects, it’s fair to wonder if Day will focus on establishing the run given the Nittany Lions’ struggles the last two weeks. First-year defensive coordinator Manny Diaz saw his unit shredded by Michigan’s tailback tandem of Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards as the Wolverines ran for 418 yards on 55 unrelenting carries. Then Minnesota scratched out 165 yards and a touchdown on 46 carries despite the predictability of a one-dimensional offense without starting quarterback Tanner Morgan.

The Buckeyes ran it poorly with just 57 yards and a touchdown on 21 combined carries from tailbacks TreVeyon Henderson and Miyan Williams against Iowa last week. But the Nittany Lions have shown that their rush defense has holes.

"We’ve got them both healthy now, so that’s good," Day said of his running backs. "We’re getting ourselves back into a rhythm of them both playing because it’s been a couple weeks since we’ve had them both in (the lineup)." 

Player to watch: Nebraska WR Trey Palmer 

In an effort to save his job, then-Nebraska coach Scott Frost pillaged the transfer portal during the offseason to sign 15 new players, 10 of which were three-star prospects and two of which were four-star prospects. The headlining names were former TCU edge rusher Ochaun Mathis, former Arizona State cornerback Tommi Hill and former Texas quarterback Casey Thompson.

Farther down the list was ex-LSU wide receiver Trey Palmer, who arrived in Lincoln after three seasons in Baton Rouge. Three years ago, Palmer was rated the No. 112 player in the country and the No. 18 wide receiver in the class of 2019 by the 247Sports Composite. He held scholarship offers from nearly every college football blue blood and chose the Tigers over Arizona State and Georgia, among others. But three years at LSU yielded just 41 catches for 458 yards and three touchdowns, at which point Palmer entered the transfer portal.   

Palmer has been nothing short of revelatory for a Nebraska team drenched in turmoil. He set the school’s single-game record with 237 receiving yards on seven catches against Purdue, and his current average of 111.6 receiving yards per game is 22 yards higher than Stanley Morgan Jr.'s mark of 89.6 yards per game in 2017 that set the Cornhuskers’ single-season record. Palmer ranks sixth nationally with 781 receiving yards (plus five touchdowns) and is tied with Louisiana-Monroe’s Tyrone Howell and Tennessee’s Jalin Hyatt for the most receptions of 60-plus yards with three.  

Unsung hero: Michigan State DE/LB Jacoby Windmon

Michigan State head coach Mel Tucker found another impact player through the transfer portal in defensive end/linebacker Jacoby Windmon from UNLV. Windmon was a lightly recruited three-star prospect from Louisiana without a single Power 5 scholarship offer. He chose the Rebels over the likes of South Alabama, Tulane, Nicholls State, Northwestern State, Southeast Missouri State and Southeastern Louisiana after finishing outside the top 2,100 players in the 247Sports Composite rankings.  

Windmon played sparingly as a freshman before breaking loose with five sacks and 12 pressures in 2020, followed by 6½ sacks and 14 pressures last season. By transferring to Michigan State in January, Windmon had the opportunity to learn Tucker’s defense during spring practice and hit the ground running in fall camp. He caught the attention of college football fans around the country by posting four sacks and a forced fumble in the season opener against Western Michigan. Then he added 1½ sacks and three more forced fumbles in Week 2 against Akron. The pressure numbers have faded in recent weeks, with just six in the last five weeks combined, but he still became the first player in school history to win Big Ten Defensive Player of the Week honors three times in a season.  

The reason Windmon qualifies as an unsung hero is his willingness to change positions. After playing his first 306 snaps at defensive end/edge rusher to begin the year, Windmon shifted to an off-the-ball linebacker role in a win over Wisconsin that snapped a four-game losing streak. He played 53 snaps at linebacker against the Badgers and just 12 off the edge in what finished as the team’s best win of the season. It was a selfless move to a less-glamorous position that paid immediate dividends for the Spartans. 

Injury report 

— Ohio State WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba (hamstring): He played only 22 snaps in the win over Iowa, as the medical staff had him on a pitch count, according to Day, who reiterated there was no setback against the Hawkeyes. Day expects his star wideout to be available for Saturday’s game in Happy Valley but was unsure if there would be restrictions on playing time. Smith-Njigba caught one pass for seven yards last week.

— Minnesota QB Tanner Morgan (head): The Golden Gophers were pummeled by Penn State last weekend, 45-17, with Morgan watching from the sideline in sweats. A sixth-year senior, Morgan was knocked out of the loss to Illinois on Oct. 15 after taking a blow to the head and spent time in the hospital before flying home with the team. As of Thursday afternoon, head coach P.J. Fleck had not named a starter for Saturday’s game against Rutgers. If Morgan is unable to play, freshman Athan Kaliakmanis is expected to make his second consecutive start.

Numbers game 

33: The number of rushing yards for the Nittany Lions in a 33-24 loss to Ohio State last season. Penn State ran the ball 29 times for 33 yards and two touchdowns in a game in which quarterback Sean Clifford attempted 52 passes. The leading rusher was tailback John Lovett with 13 carries for 20 yards.  

4: The number of combined kicks and punts blocked by Rutgers this season, which is tied for third nationally behind leaders South Carolina (five) and Central Michigan (five). Nebraska (three) is the only other Big Ten school with more than two blocks. The last time the Scarlet Knights had at least four blocks in a season was 2014.

5: The number of touchdowns allowed by Illinois this season, including just three touchdowns in the last 63 opponent drives. An excellent Illini defense ranks first nationally in scoring (8.9 points per game) and total defense (221.1 yards per game) while sitting second in rushing defense (77.9 yards per game) and passing defense (143.3 yards per game).

300-100-100: The combination of a 300-yard passer, 100-yard rusher and 100-yard receiver in the same game by Nebraska on two occasions this season, first against Northwestern and then against Georgia Southern. It’s a feat the Cornhuskers had achieved just seven times in program history entering 2022, with the last such performance coming in 2019 against Illinois.

115: The number of meetings between Michigan State and Michigan in their annual battle for the Paul Bunyan Trophy. The Wolverines lead the all-time series 71-38-5, but that advantage narrows to 38-32-2 since 1950. The Spartans have won 10 of the last 14 meetings, including five of the last seven in Ann Arbor.  

Read more:

• 2023 NFL Draft: Scouting the best QB prospects
• College football Week 9: By the numbers
• Jim Harbaugh dismisses James Franklin's ‘whining’ about tunnel
• Why contenders from Pac-12, Big 12 face steep climb to CFP
• Check out the latest Big Ten Power Rankings
• ‘They’re buying in': This defense is why Ohio State hired Jim Knowles

Michael Cohen covers college football and basketball for FOX Sports with an emphasis on the Big Ten. Follow him on Twitter at @Michael_Cohen13.