Texas vs. Kansas State: Prediction, odds, picks

The No. 7 Texas Longhorns (7-1) and the 15th-ranked scoring defense will host the No. 25 Kansas State Wildcats (6-2) and the 13th-ranked scoring offense on Saturday, November 4. The Wildcats are 4-point underdogs. 

The Longhorns' last game was against the BYU Cougars, and they won by a score of 35-6. In their last contest, the Wildcats won versus the Houston Cougars, 41-0.

Here's everything you need to know about the matchup between Kansas State and Texas — the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and a pick from our betting analyst Geoff Schwartz. 

Texas vs. Kansas State Game Information & Odds

• When: Saturday, November 4, 2023 at 12:00 PM ET
• Location: Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin, Texas
• TV: FOX
• Live boxscore on FOX Sports

Texas vs. Kansas State Prediction

• Pick ATS: Kansas State (+4)  
• Pick OU: Over (49.5) 
• Prediction: Texas 27, Kansas State 26

Pick via FOX Sports Betting Expert Geoff Schwartz

I don’t like to be on the side of the public 'dog when I'm not getting the best of the number, but I do believe Kansas State is going to keep this game close. 

The Wildcats are playing outstanding football lately, especially on defense, where they have not allowed a touchdown in nine quarters. Their defense is seventh in points per drive and 23rd in explosive play rate. 

Texas is without Quinn Ewers, so Maalik Murphy will make his second start. Murphy has talent, but he’s not Ewers and the Wildcat defense should be able to slow him down. The Longhorns are also struggling to convert on red zone opportunities, and without their starting quarterback — against this defense — that task is even more difficult. 

Kansas State’s offense is roaring right now behind Will Howard, running back DJ Giddens and a solid offensive line. KSU is playing a formidable Texas defense, one that is ranked 14th in points per drive and has a havoc rate in the mid-30s. It will be a cage fight between the KSU offense and Texas defense. 

This game is evenly matched, with both teams able to do multiple things well. Because Texas has a backup quarterback, the edge goes to Kansas State for me. 

I’m taking the Wildcats to cover. 

PICK: Kansas State (+4.5) to lose by fewer than 4.5 points (or win outright)

Texas vs. Kansas State Betting Insights

• Based on the spread and over/under, the implied score for the tilt is Longhorns 27, Wildcats 23.
• The Longhorns have a 65.8% chance to win this contest based on the moneyline's implied probability. The Wildcats hold a 38.5% implied probability.
• Texas has compiled a 4-4-0 record against the spread this season.
• Kansas State has won six games against the spread this year, failing to cover twice.

Texas vs. Kansas State: Head-to-Head

• Over their last two meetings, Texas has tallied two wins against Kansas State.
• The Longhorns carry a 2-0 record ATS in those games, while the two teams have gone over the point total on one occasion.
• Over their last two head-to-head contests, Texas has scored 56 points, while Kansas State has compiled 44.

Texas vs. Kansas State: 2023 Stats Comparison

Texas 2023 Key Players

Kansas State 2023 Key Players