Texas Longhorns and Steve Sarkisian: What does success look like in 2023?

It will be a fascinating 2023 season in Austin.

The Texas Longhorns face a daunting schedule highlighted by a trip to Alabama. They'll have to figure out how to win without the security blanket that was do-it-all running back Bijan Robinson. Quarterback Quinn Ewers will pilot the ship while top recruit Arch Manning monitors the action from the bench. And head coach Steve Sarkisian will preside over all of it while trying to figure out how to guide his program to the next level. 

The backdrop to all of this, of course, is the fact that Texas is entering its final season in the Big 12 before making its move to the SEC.

What should we expect to see? FOX Sports college football writers Michael Cohen and Bryan Fischer are here to weigh in on all of it.

Before quarterback Quinn Ewers injured his shoulder in a narrow loss to Alabama, he'd completed 9 of 12 passes for 134 yards to showcase the caliber of talent that made him the former No. 1 overall recruit in 2021. He returned from injury with a bang by throwing for four touchdowns in a 49-0 romp of Oklahoma, but he never topped 200 yards in any of Texas' final four games of the regular season — though three of those four were wins. What would constitute a successful campaign for Ewers entering his third year of college football?

Michael Cohen: Based on Ewers' statistics from last season, there are several areas where he has clear room for growth in 2023 and beyond. His completion percentage of 58.1% last season ranked tied for 88th nationally and checked in more than 10 percentage points behind the likes of Oregon's Bo Nix (71.9%), Tennessee's Hendon Hooker (69.6%), UCLA's Dorian Thompson-Robinson (69.6%) and Georgia's Stetson Bennett (68.3%). The last Texas starter with a completion percentage at or below Ewers' mark in 2022 was Sam Ehlinger (57.5%) in 2017. 

To make strides in that area, Ewers will need to perform better under duress. He completed just 25 of 58 attempts (43.1%) for 377 yards, one touchdown and three interceptions when pressured last season, according to Pro Football Focus. His completion percentage in those situations ranked 64th nationally and 34th in the Power 5 among quarterbacks who were pressured on at least 70 dropbacks. Ewers' NFL passer rating of 49.3 under pressure ranked 90th in the same group of quarterbacks, dwarfed by the likes of USC's Caleb Williams (116.0), Oregon's Nix (98.3), Penn State's Sean Clifford (97.3) and Alabama's Bryce Young (95.2), among others. 

Improved accuracy and better decision-making when the pocket collapses are two areas where NFL scouts will be hoping to see improvement from Ewers in 2023. 

Bryan Fischer: A successful campaign for Ewers will be as much about the destination as it will be about the journey: a tearful press conference in some wood-paneled room overlooking DKR where he announces he's turning the keys over to Arch Manning and declaring for the draft. 

If that's the endpoint, much of this season will be about elevating every other area of his game. Better under pressure as Michael noted, faster processing of information, taking fewer risks but still nailing the big plays, plus just operating the offense as a true quarterback and not just someone who drops back and tries to find somebody open. 

Do all that and Ewers would be looking at a completion percentage in the 65-69% range, around 3,500 yards, 30 touchdowns, and a berth in the Big 12 title game to fully say goodbye to the league on behalf of the school. Given his inherent talent, the flashes we've already seen and the Longhorns likely throwing it around more with Bijan Robinson off to the NFL, that feels like a pretty good — and clearable — bar for him and head coach Steve Sarkisian.

Beyond all else, a mature (and healthy) Ewers will lead to a successful season. 

How ably the Longhorns can replace star running back Bijan Robinson might well serve as a barometer for their 2023 season overall. Robinson topped 1,000 yards each of the last two years and became the first Texas tailback to cross that mark since D'Onta Foreman rumbled for 2,028 yards in 2016. What do you expect the rushing attack to look like this season?

Bryan: While you may be able to replace some of Robinson's production in terms of carries, yards and touchdowns, I think Texas will struggle to replace his knack for big plays at just the right time. Sure, he was capable of putting up a highlight every other quarter, but those key third-and-long runs he was able to convert by breaking a tackle aren't something as easy to find on a roster that still has plenty of talent.

I would also note that it's not just replacing a top-10 pick in Robinson, either, because we're overlooking the contributions Roschon Johnson made in terms of versatility and ability. Replacing one stud tailback is one thing, replacing two makes the challenge even tougher.

That said, some of the rushing attack will probably just be transitioned over to more short passes to transition the burden from the young guys in the backfield onto the shoulders of Ewers. I wouldn't be surprised if you see a lot more screens this year, not just to pick up some yards in obvious running situations but also to creatively get the ball in the hands of guys like Xavier Worthy to do their thing.

We did get some glimpses of what Jonathon Brooks did last season against Kansas and if he's healthy for long enough, I wouldn't rule out a 1,000-yard campaign as the lead back (particularly if there's a trip to the Big 12 title game). Brooks has both the burst and the makeup to be the lead guy. There is plenty of complementary talent available, but also plenty of skepticism about whether someone can step up like Johnson did in teaming up with Robinson. 

I do wonder if Savion Red's move to running back this spring means Keilan Robinson might not be that kind of answer, at least strictly in the backfield. It could also mean Jaydon Blue is going to comfortably be the second option. Freshman C.J. Baxter — who offers much more punch in the red zone — is the third guy who rotates in for touches. 

The bottom line to me is that UT's rushing attack will be the same, but different, as the Horns look to revamp the backfield.

Michael: Robinson was so good and so vital to what Texas did on offense last season that the coaching staff allotted him 54.9% of the team's total rushing attempts, a workload similar to that of Minnesota's Mohamed Ibrahim (55.1%) and Illinois' Chase Brown (60.3%). Robinson's 258 carries were the most by a Longhorns' tailback since Foreman carried 323 times (54.1%) in 2016. The chance of any Texas tailback shouldering a similar number of carries in 2023 feels slim.

Instead, the safe bet is a two-way split between Brooks and Blue, with the former more likely to elevate into a featured role as the season progresses. Brooks carried 30 times for 197 yards and five touchdowns as Texas' third-string tailback in 2022, but his production at Hallettsville (Texas) High School suggests he's capable of much more. He earned All-State honors as a senior by rushing for staggering totals of 3,530 yards and 62 touchdowns. The 247Sports Composite rankings, which viewed Brooks as a four-star recruit, placed him 24th nationally among tailbacks and the No. 354 overall prospect. 

Blue was another highly rated in-state recruit who earned All-America honors at Klein Cain High School, which is located just outside Houston, before skipping his senior season to enroll at Texas. After carrying just 15 times for 33 yards in a deep reserve role last year, rumors swirled about Blue potentially entering the transfer portal. He later refuted those whispers and decided to remain with the program for the 2023 campaign. The former top-200 overall recruit should have a larger role in 2023.

Steve Sarkisian is entering his third year in charge of the Longhorns and his 10th as a head coach overall after spending 2009-13 at Washington and 2014-15 at USC. That he has yet to win 10 games in any of those campaigns remains a stain on his résumé. How warm is Sarkisian's seat entering 2023, and what must he do to ensure he's back in 2024?

Michael: Unless Texas rolls to double-digit wins for just the second time since 2010, this figures to be one of the most analyzed storylines of the 2023 season. And part of what makes this situation fascinating is the wealth of viewpoints from which his tenure can be analyzed. 

There's an argument to be made that landing five-star quarterback Arch Manning, the No. 1 overall recruit in the 2023 cycle, should secure Sarkisian's position through 2024 barring a complete collapse. Manning was part of a recruiting class that ranked third nationally behind Georgia and Alabama, and parting ways with Sarkisian could prompt the nephew of quarterback greats Peyton Manning and Eli Manning to reconsider his options before ever ascending to the top of the depth chart. The thought of losing a potentially generational recruit like Manning could give Sarkisian some leverage. And of all the areas where Sarkisian can be justifiably criticized, recruiting really isn't one of them. 

But there's another school of thought that suggests moving on from Sarkisian ahead of the 2024 campaign, at which point Texas and Oklahoma are slated to move from the Big 12 to the SEC, could offer the cleanest break should athletic director Chris Del Conte make a move. The Longhorns would be able to reset, recalibrate and reshuffle the coaching hierarchy ahead of a fresh start in their new league. And the fact that Manning always knew Texas would be jumping to the SEC ahead of his sophomore season means the ties to Sarkisian might not carry as much weight as some will suggest. Perhaps playing in the SEC means more to Manning than playing for Sarkisian specifically.

Regardless of the outcome, the bottom line is that a program like Texas shouldn't be averaging seven wins per season across any 13-year stretch — yet that's exactly what's happened since former coach Mack Brown finished 13-1 in 2009. His successor, Charlie Strong, lasted three years and won just 16 games. Strong's successor, Tom Herman, squeezed out 32 wins in four years before getting the boot. With Sarkisian sitting on 13 wins in his first two seasons, there's no doubt his seat is warming entering Year 3 in Austin.

Bryan: I wouldn't want to draw a line in the sand and say 10 wins would guarantee it, but that's probably what should be expected with a roster that's in the best shape it's been in several years, and with expectations only set to jump with the move to the SEC in 2024.

And, honestly, that's a mark that feels clearly there for the taking — if not more. 

Sure there's that looming trip to Tuscaloosa on the docket, but if you're going to be playing Alabama at Bryant Denny, doing so very early in the season when there is not an established guy under center for Nick Saban is the best possible scenario. Playing reigning Big 12 champion Kansas State will be a tough one, but that's far more manageable in Austin than it would be if it were in the Little Apple. Oklahoma will always be a difficult game, but the team as currently constructed feels ahead of where the Sooners are regardless. 

Plus, after making the trip to Dallas, one would expect UT to be favored the rest of the way. 

Sark is probably still safe with nine wins and remaining in conference contention into late November, but anything less than that could start to make things interesting. After all, this is a place where expectations constantly exceed the realm of reality and where Sarkisian's predecessor was dismissed on the heels of a third-place finish and top-20 final ranking three years ago.

Bryan Fischer is a college football writer for FOX Sports. He has been covering college athletics for nearly two decades at outlets such as NBC Sports, CBS Sports, Yahoo! Sports and NFL.com among others. Follow him on Twitter at @BryanDFischer.

Michael Cohen covers college football and basketball for FOX Sports with an emphasis on the Big Ten. Follow him on Twitter at @Michael_Cohen13.