Tennessee stuns Alabama, bettors win big thanks to upset

By Patrick Everson
FOX Sports Gambling Writer

On Saturday afternoon, before Alabama-Tennessee festivities kicked off in Knoxville, BetMGM trader Seamus Magee made his sportsbook’s position pretty clear.

"Alabama outright is the biggest need," Magee said, noting sharp bets on Alabama – with the expectation that QB Bryce Young would play, which he did – couldn’t hold a candle to the public pile-on for Tennessee. "The public is still smashing Tennessee."

As it turned out, the public got paid and paid well. The sixth-ranked Vols got a dying duck of a 40-yard field goal to clear the crossbar somehow, cementing a wild 52-49 victory over the No. 3 Crimson Tide.

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Moneyline Mayhem

For most sportsbooks, Tennessee covering the spread as a consensus 9-point home underdog wasn’t the kicker. Oddsmakers would’ve accepted an Alabama win and a Tennessee cover, though that would’ve stung, too. But the Vols’ victory also made winners of oodles of bettors who took Tennessee on the moneyline – that is, to win the game outright.

The odds on that generally ran in the range of +240 to +270. In simple terms, that means a $100 Tennessee bet would net between $240 and $270.

"It was a great result for the public, with Tennessee winning straight up and the Over hitting," Caesars Sports vice president of trading Craig Mucklow said. "The Vols were well-backed today on both the spread and the moneyline."

And as Mucklow noted, with 101 points put up between the two teams, the Over easily hit on a closing total of 68. That was another popular play with the recreational bettors.

That’s Entertainment

Early on, it seemed as if Tennessee was going to take down Alabama emphatically. The Vols bolted to a 21-7 lead with four minutes left in the first quarter, and barely three minutes into the second quarter, Hendon Hooker & Co. went up 28-10.

Alabama then got going, tying it at 28 early in the third quarter, then taking a 35-34 lead late in the third. The two teams continued trading punches, including an 11-yard scoop-and-score by Alabama’s Dallas Turner that gave the Tide a 49-42 lead with 7:50 left in the fourth frame.

But Tennessee tied it at 49 with 3:26 left on Hooker’s fifth TD pass of the day. The Vols then got decent field position when Alabama missed a 50-yard field goal with 15 seconds left.

Two Hendon completions later, and with just two seconds left on the clock, Vols kicker Chase McGrath booted the bookmakers and boosted the bettors, barely connecting on a 40-yard field goal.

"An extremely entertaining game," BetMGM vice president of trading Jason Scott said. "The Vols were a less-than-positive result for BetMGM."

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Spread Thin

Over at The SuperBook, senior risk supervisor Casey Degnon said Alabama just winning – not covering the spread – wouldn’t have been too helpful.

"There was some moneyline action [on Tennessee], but not as much as on the spread," Degnon said. "Lots of public action on the Vols. We were definitely rooting for a ‘Bama cover. We were a small loser on the game."

Chuck Esposito, race and sports director at Station Sports’ Red Rock Resort in Las Vegas, sought that same result.

"The best case for us was an Alabama win and cover," Esposito said. "They backed Tennessee on the spread and on the moneyline."

Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.