Study: Agents break down hiring history, give coaching carousel context

Editor's note: Russ Campbell and Patrick Strong are sports attorneys at Balch & Bingham LLP in Alabama. Below they dissect recent coaching carousel history to provide context for the upcoming year's hiring season.

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The preseason is a time for lists, and one that gets a lot of attention is the “coaches hot seat” list. These hot seats will change weekly -- sometimes daily -- throughout the season and have a tangible impact within the coaching ranks, triggering rampant speculation.

For every hot seat, dozens of coaches (at all levels) are certain they are the right choice should that job open. Confidence is a necessary trait in coaching. It can make good coaches great. In this space, however, it can also create confusion and frustration as coaches – often without ever being in the mix – watch others put on the hat at the podium.

To help understand the coaching carousel process and give the hot seat talk some research-based context, we examined the last seven hiring cycles (end of the 2007 season to present) of NFL and collegiate (FBS & BCS) head coaches and the last four hiring cycles (end of 2010 season to present) of NFL offensive and defensive coordinators.

Our research focused on categories like the number of openings, “when hired” snapshot information (age, current position, overall experience, collegiate/professional head coaching and coordinator experience), minority hires and – for FBS/BCS – ties to the school.   

A word of caution before looking at our findings: Numbers can be misleading. Some of the data requires a second-level analysis. For example, the Bucs hired a coordinator (Jeff Tedford) without any NFL experience and the Chargers hired a coordinator (Frank Reich) without any head coaching or coordinator experience. These are data points, but you have to take into account that Tedford had 20 years’ experience as a collegiate head coach and coordinator, and Reich played in the League for a dozen years. Additionally, BCS hires were limited to schools in automatic qualifying conferences while FBS hires included schools in both automatic and non-automatic qualifying conferences.

With that caution, here is our analysis, packaged as responses to questions we frequently hear.  By reflecting upon this data, we can (hopefully) provide some balance to the predictions and expectations in advance of that chaotic three-month period known as the “coaching carousel.”

How many openings will there be at the end of the season?

NFL head coaches: Around seven. Other than a low of three openings after the 2009 season (all filled by former NFL head coaches), the number of openings has held steady between six and eight. On average, there is more turnover in the AFC with the cycle following the 2013 season being the only year since 2007 in which there were more NFC hires (four to three).

FBS/BCS head coaches: Around 23 FBS openings (including 12 BCS openings), unless last year’s trend continues. The number of FBS openings increased over a six-year period from 18 after the 2007 season to 31 after the 2012 season. This past year, that number dropped to 20 (the only drop in our seven-year window). The number of BCS openings followed that same trend -- increasing from 11 to 16 before dropping to eight this past year.    

NFL coordinators: Around 24. The number has held pretty consistently over the past four hiring cycles: 25, 27, 25 and 21. Of note, there have been more offensive coordinator openings than defensive coordinator openings for three straight years.

How important is previous head coaching experience? What about coordinator experience?

NFL head coaches: Head coaching experience is important but not necessarily critical. Since the 2007 season, 54 percent of the head coaches hired had previous head coaching experience at either the NFL, CFL or FBS / BCS level. Surprisingly, only about half of those coaches had previous NFL head coaching experience. Coordinator experience, on the other hand, is extremely important. Nearly 80 percent of the NFL head coaches hired had NFL coordinator experience.

A small number of coaches were hired without any head coaching experience or NFL coordinator experience (about 13 percent), however, no hires over the past three years have fit that profile and a number of those coaches had established track records with the hiring NFL club (e.g. Mike Singletary, 49ers, and Mike Munchak, Titans).

FBS/BCS head coaches: Like the NFL, 53 percent of the FBS head coaches hired had head coaching experience. Of those coaches, 35 percent of them had between one and nine years’ head coaching experience while only 18 percent had more than 10 years’ experience.

There’s even more of a premium on head coaching experience at the BCS level – 63 percent of all BCS head coaching hires had head coaching experience. That doesn’t mean, however, that head coaches have to put in 10 years to get their BCS shot. Of these coaches, 24 percent had fewer than five years of head coaching experience with another 20 percent having 5-9 years’ experience. Only 18 percent of the BCS hires had 10 or more years’ head coaching experience.

Coordinating experience was key among the 76 FBS coaches (the remaining 47 percent) hired without any head coaching experience. The bulk of these coaches had between 1-4 years’ and 5-9 years’ coordinating experience. Only 24 percent of them had 10 or more years’ and only 18 percent (13 coaches) were hired without any coordinating experience.

All those numbers generally hold true when limiting the analysis to BCS-level jobs as well with one exception: It is even rarer to get a BCS job than an FCS job without any head coaching or coordinator experience. Only three hires fit that description – Dabo Swinney (Clemson), Jon Embree (Colorado) and Kyle Flood (Rutgers).

NFL coordinators: Previous coordinating experience is a decided advantage, as 65 percent of the NFL coordinator hires had previous experience in that role and that number climbs to 83 percent when you combine NFL and FBS/BCS coordinating experience.

How many years do I have to put in before I get my shot?

NFL head coaches: NFL owners like seasoned coaches. The average age of the hires was 49.  Young guns chasing NFL head coaching jobs have not fared well. Only 6 percent of the hires were in their 30’s – McDaniels (Broncos), Morris (Bucs) and Allen (Raiders) – and no coach younger than 39 has landed an NFL head coaching gig in the last five years. Fifty-five percent of the hires were in their 40’s with the remaining 39 percent being 50-plus.    

FBS/BCS head coaches: Athletic directors also prefer experienced coaches. The average age of the FBS hires was 46. Only 16 percent were in their 30’s with about a quarter of those coaches being younger than 35. Fifty-seven of the hires were in their 40’s with the remaining 27 percent being 50-plus. The average age of BCS hires was 45 with the breakdown being nearly identical to FBS hires. However, only three coaches have landed BCS jobs before their 35th birthday – Kiffin (Tennessee & USC), Sarkisian (Washington) and Kingsbury (Texas Tech).

NFL coordinator: NFL owners also like seasoned coordinators. The average age of NFL coordinator hires was 47. Fourty-six percent of coordinators were hired at 50 or older, 34 percent of them were in their 40’s and 20 percent of them were in their 30’s (with about a quarter of them being younger than 35).    

How hard is it for a minority coach to get a head coaching gig?

NFL head coaches: Sadly, hard. Only 17 percent of NFL head jobs went to minority coaches – averaging about one per year. The most in any given year was after the 2010 season when three minority head coaches were hired; however, three of the past five hiring cycles failed to produce a minority head coach.    

FBS/BCS head coaches: The numbers aren’t much better in college – 19 percent of all FBS openings went to minority coaches, averaging about four per year. The most in any given year was 32 percent following the 2009 football season while the lowest was after the 2007 season when only 11 percent of hires were minorities. The second highest percentage of minority coaches hired in any given year was just this past season (20 percent). Fifteen percent of BCS openings went to minorities -- averaging about two per year with the lowest percentage coming after the 2011 season (7 percent) and the highest coming just this past year (38 percent).

NFL coordinators: The number of minority NFL coordinators is almost identical to the NFL head coaching numbers. Seventeen percent went to minorities, averaging about four per year.  However, the number of minority hires has improved dramatically over the past two years when 28 percent of the openings went to minorities compared to only 8 percent in the two years prior to that.

Do offensive coaches have a better shot at head coaching opportunities than defensive coaches?

NFL head coaches: Slightly – 56 percent of openings went to coaches with offensive backgrounds. Those numbers hold steady when limiting the analysis to the 27 head coaches hired from coordinator positions: 14 offensive coordinators to 13 defensive coordinators.

FBS/BCS head coaches: The offensive/defensive balance is significantly more skewed at the college level -- 71percent of the FBS coaches hires came from the offensive side of the ball.  The most balanced year came after the 2010 season when 59 percent of FBS coaches hired had offensive backgrounds. Every other year at least 64 percent had offensive backgrounds, including a high of 83 percent after the 2007 season. The numbers shift slightly back into balance at the BCS level, but not by much – 65 percent of BCS head coaches had offensive backgrounds. The most balanced year came after the 2010 season when an equal number of offensive and defensive coaches filled BCS openings. However, the following year 83 percent of new BCS head coaches had offensive backgrounds.   

I’m trying to break into the League as a head coach or coordinator but I don’t have any NFL experience. What are my chances?

NFL head coaches: Not very good. Only one NFL head coach has been hired without any NFL experience, regardless of position – Chip Kelly (Eagles). Ninety-eight percent of NFL head coach hires had NFL experience in some coaching capacity with most of them having more than five years’ experience: about 10 percent had 1-5 years’ NFL experience, 33 percent had between 6-10, 24 percent had 11-15 and 30 percent had more than 15 years. Not a single NFL head coach had only collegiate coordinator experience.

NFL coordinators: The numbers are almost identical at the NFL coordinator level. Only one NFL coordinator was hired without any NFL experience, regardless of position – Tedford (Bucs). Ninety-nine percent of NFL coordinators hired during that period had some NFL coaching experience with most having more than 5 years’ – 7 percent of them had 1-5 years’ NFL experience, 25 percent had 6-10, 33 percent had 11-15 and 32 percent had more than 15 years’ NFL experience.

Again, one has to evaluate the data carefully. Of the 7 percent of coordinators (8) hired with five or fewer years of NFL experience, nearly all of them had “other” relevant experience: one had 20-plus years of collegiate head coaching/coordinator experience, one was already a successful NFL coordinator (with collegiate head coaching experience), one was a collegiate coordinator, one played 12 years in the league, two were promoted from within and one was a position coach under the newly hired head coach (at a previous organization).

What position are most guys hired from? That is, what are the launch pad jobs?

NFL head coaches: NFL coordinator, by far. 58 percent of the NFL head coaching hires have been sitting NFL coordinators (14 OC/13 DC). Surprisingly, there were more sitting college head coaches hired (13 percent) than NFL head coaches who were sitting out (11 percent) -- so much for the perception that the NFL “re-employs” head coaches. Less than 10 percent of the hires consisted of purely NFL position coaches while another 7 percent were position coaches with the title of assistant head coach.

FBS/BCS head coaches: Either college head coach or college coordinator. 82 percent of the FBS hires over the past six years have been either sitting college head coaches, former head coaches sitting out a year (or more) or college coordinators – equally split at 41 percent. 9 percent were comprised of college position coaches (half of them also carried the title of assistant head coach) while the remaining 9 percent of hires consisted of NFL coordinators, position coaches or former NFL head coaches.

NFL coordinators: NFL position coach. 49 percent of NFL coordinator hires were sitting NFL position coaches. Nearly another quarter were either making lateral moves or were sitting out a year from their last NFL coordinator job. The remaining 27 percent were comprised of former NFL head coaches coming off a job or taking a lap (13 percent), BCS coordinators (8 percent) and a catch-all category of coaches either coming from the UFL or BCS assistant head coach positions.

In evaluating this category of information, keep in mind the distinction between overall experience and the position held immediately before landing a coordinator job. For example, while 48 percent of coordinator hires were sitting position coaches, 84 percent of all coordinator openings went to coaches with either NFL head coaching experience or collegiate/professional coordinator experience -- meaning most of those position coaches had other experience under their belts.

How important are ties to the program in landing a FBS/BCS head coaching job?

FBS/BCS head coaches: It helps … a lot. 48 percent of the FBS head coaches hired had ties to the school -- either playing there, previously coaching there or being from the state.  Interestingly, only 14 percent of FBS head coaches hired were promoted from within. The numbers are almost identical when only evaluating BCS openings.

Takeaways

If past performance is any indication of future results, here’s what next year’s hires will look like:

* You can expect around seven NFL head coach hires, with four having head coaching experience but only two having NFL head coaching experience. Six of the seven with have NFL coordinator experience, and four will have offensive backgrounds. Only one will be a minority.

* There will be around 23 FBS hires, with 12 having head coaching experience. Nine of the 11 without head coaching experience will have coordinating experience. Sixteen of the 23 hires will have offensive backgrounds. Only three will be promoted from within.

* There will be about 12 BCS hires, with eight having head coaching experience and the four without head coaching experience will have served as a coordinator. Eight of the 12 will have offensive backgrounds and only two will be promoted from within. Two will be minorities.

* There will be around 24 NFL coordinator hires, and all will have NFL coaching experience. Sixteen of them will have NFL coordinating experience. Only four will be minorities.

Are these numbers definite? No. But the data pool is large enough that these numbers should hold true barring a significant change in historical hiring practices.