Sammy’s Sportsbook Whispers: Ohio State Has A Question Mark At QB

Following up on last week’s "Sportsbook Whispers," the best betting story in college football got even better last Saturday afternoon.  

UCLA covered again.

Make that 7-0 straight up and against the spread, and all the Bruins regular-season win totals are "Over." Whether you bet 5.5, 6 or 6.5, you’re a winner thanks to a sensational first year from head coach Bob Chesney.

UCLA (7-0 ATS) and Kentucky (7-1 ATS) are the best cover teams in the country. BYU, Georgia Southern, Louisiana Tech, Nebraska, New Mexico, Oklahoma State, Oregon State and Utah are all 6-1 ATS.

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Speaking of BYU, let’s pour one out for all the Cougar fans who thought Las Vegas perceived them as a top-10 team. I read over 500 social media comments — lots of them insanely disrespectful — all because I said BYU wasn’t a top-10 team and that UCF plus the points was the play.

"I don’t make numbers with my feelings," Vegas oddsmaker Motoi Pearson cracked. "I had Cougs 19th before the UCF game and now they’re 21st. They’re still a really good team that can crash the College Football Playoff."

The biggest question mark for me heading into the weekend is how Ohio State’s offense will look without starting quarterback Julian Sayin. 

A Heisman finalist last year, Sayin is out indefinitely with an arm injury, and it sounds like freshman Luke Fahey will start under center at USC.

One projected look-ahead line last week was Ohio State -3.

Circa Sports in Vegas opened Ohio State -7 on Sunday.

"Lookaheads are lookaheads for a reason," former Las Vegas bookmaker Ed Salmons told me. "USC scored seven points last weekend. They were awful. [Jayden] Maiava threw two picks. So, you have to drop their number.

"I did some more homework on Ohio State. The Fahey kid might start, but I wouldn’t be surprised if [Tavien] St. Clair finishes. He’s a better prospect and he’s a lot bigger. They’ll make the switch if Fahey isn’t playing well.

"And Ohio State is just a much tougher team than USC."

That doesn’t mean bettors won’t pounce on a good number.

"Oh, I took some [+7] with the dog," professional bettor Slice said. "I’ll take my chances against a young quarterback laying a touchdown on the road. It’s a solid spot for USC off that loss. If they’re any good, they’ll bounce back."

Salmons has given this column a winner in six of the last seven weeks. It’s amazing he hasn’t gone full tout with a 900 number at this point.

"I bet UConn +3," he said. "I think they win outright. Air Force is going to be down to QB3 and this UConn team is a lot better than people think."

To the NFL, the Minnesota Vikings are the last undefeated team after Kansas City and San Francisco were dealt their first losses. Just like we all thought back in September. 

One American sportsbook was dealing the Vikings at 40/1 to lose last. I can’t imagine there was much liability there.

There is liability, though, at Caesars Sportsbook on the Las Vegas Raiders winning the Super Bowl. It would be no bueno for the house if that actually happened.

"It’s our biggest liability by far," Caesars head of football Joey Feazel told me. "And there’s no reason to think it won’t remain that way going forward. We’re also pretty heavy on Brock Purdy and Joe Burrow to win NFL MVP."

Finally, I shared a stat last Thursday morning about Ben Johnson’s record as a play caller in primetime games. Dating back to his days as an offensive coordinator in Detroit, Johnson has called plays in 23 primetime games.

And the Bears and Lions are a combined 18-4-1 ATS.

I’m aware it’s not the biggest sample size in the world and there’s always going to be a faction of people that say "Trends don’t pay the rent." 

Generally, I agree, but Bill Belichick always delivered against rookie quarterbacks and Patrick Mahomes has been unbelievable as an underdog. Ben Johnson is a 3-point pup Monday night in Seattle and I will be going back to the well.

Here’s hoping for 19-4-1.