Prepping for the NFL: How ACC coaches compare at developing offensive stars

By Bryan Fischer
Published

Editor's note: This is part of an ongoing series on how college coaches fare at developing players for the NFL. Check out previous stories on Big 12 defensive players, Big 12 offensive players, Pac-12 offensive players, Pac-12 defensive players, Big Ten offensive players and Big Ten defensive players.

It may seem like the ACC is a league that is in a revolving door of crisis every few years, but when it comes to the head coaches running up and down the sidelines in the conference, things are seemingly as good as ever.

Two of the five active head coaches to have won a national title reside in the ACC and quite a few others hoisted trophies as assistants. Toss in recent additions like Jeff Brohm at Louisville and Miami luring alum Mario Cristobal back to Coral Gables — or young guys filling a ton of promise like Florida State's Mike Norvell — and it's an impressive top-to-bottom lineup that underscores the level of play in the league.

Whether they've won it all or are just getting started in a top job, though, all understand that college football remains driven by the underlying principle of having better players than your opponent. Before you even get to the Xs and Os that are on display each Saturday, having the Jimmys and the Joes tends to be the best prognosticator of success on the field.

But just how good are coaches when it comes to finding all those good players and, well, coaching them up?

Following the 2023 NFL Draft, FOX Sports pulled decades worth of recruiting data and looked into just how productive (or not) each active Power 5 coach was at both recruiting and developing players — and at what positions — when it came to the ultimate eye in the sky of the NFL.

More stories on ‘Prepping for the NFL’

In the seventh part of a series about developing NFL talent in college football, here's a look at how some of the coaches in the ACC have fared over the years in terms of best producing offensive talent:

Quarterbacks

The Best: Dabo Swinney (Clemson)
Others of note: Dave Doeren (N.C. State), Mack Brown (North Carolina), Jeff Brohm (Louisville)

The ACC does not get discussed as often as some of its peer conferences when it comes to producing a plethora of quality quarterbacks, but the past few seasons have had many more NFL scouting trips take place up and down the coast.

Of the conference's 14 head coaches, however, there's not a clear head-and-shoulders pick among the group like there is with Lincoln Riley in the Pac-12 or Ryan Day in the Big Ten. 

Clemson's Dabo Swinney, for example, has had a respectable three QBs drafted across his 15 seasons with the Tigers. That's included a No. 1 overall selection in Trevor Lawrence and a fellow first-rounder in Deshaun Watson — both former five-stars who more than lived up to their prep billing. Even more than that, both were consistent threats in the Heisman Trophy voting, delivered national titles to the school, and are among the all-time greats in this era of college football who went on to become NFL stars, too.

Sixth-rounder Tajh Boyd, a former four-star who played a few years too early to really blossom in a modern NFL offense, also holds a host of school and conference records and was among the first to put Swinney's Clemson on a path to national prominence. 

That ultimate ceiling with such a trio is hard to ignore and helps balance out a few misses with the two other five-star prospects Swinney signed in D.J. Uiagalelei and Hunter Johnson (both of whom transferred). 

Pound for pound, however, former Atlantic Division rival Dave Doeren might just have a case that he should have the edge even if his former signal-callers haven't quite reached the same heights. Dabo does have more to work with under center given where recruiting has been at for the perennial ACC champs, but N.C. State has been a quality destination for the past decade under the Wolfpack's veteran coach too.

Doeren has had three QBs drafted in a dozen seasons in charge, including former two-star Chandler Harnish when he and the coach were busting up the BCS at Northern Illinois. Only Mack Brown has produced a greater number of draftees at the position and is similar in regard to the median pick (104th vs. 91st overall by the coach across the Triangle). However, Doeren has done so with a QB who averages three-stars coming out of high school vs. four for Brown and nearly five for Swinney.

Again, Doeren's guys have not quite reached the overall level as those two aforementioned peers, but it's a pretty good track record amid a decent-sized sample. Also, keep in mind that Doeren has done so across at least five different offensive coordinators/play-callers and would have almost assuredly had a fourth quarterback drafted had Devin Leary opted for the draft in lieu of transferring to Kentucky.

New Louisville coach Jeff Brohm also isn't too shabby when it comes to developing guys given his two drafted signal-callers were rated three-stars and were a former zero-star walk-on. 

It's also worth pointing out that Brown could help change his own pecking order on this list after next year's draft given how highly touted Drake Maye is in NFL circles. One of the real deans of college football has a much better actual track record than his reputation would indicate, and if you took away the number of seasons he's been in charge as a head coach, it's hard to ignore producing three top-100 picks at QB while he was at Texas, not to mention a recent pupil in Sam Howell who has gone from four-star flip to a potential NFL starter in 2023 after being taken in the fifth round two years ago.

Running backs

The Best: Mack Brown (North Carolina)
Others of note: Dabo Swinney (Clemson), Mike Norvell (Florida State), Pat Narduzzi (Pitt)
Surprisingly disappointing: Mario Cristobal (Miami)

Though the paucity of picks over the course of three decades may negatively color the perception of Brown some, that's not the case at running back, where he has had more guys drafted over the course of his career (12) than six other active ACC head coaches have had across all positions for the entirety of their tenure. Six of the tailbacks coached by the current UNC coach were also top-100 selections in the draft — not a bad percentage — and two of those went in the top five. Ricky Williams memorably won a Heisman under Brown's guidance, and others like Jamaal Charles had phenomenal careers at both levels, too. 

It can be a little tough to tell just how highly rated all the RBs were coming out of high school given how so many under Brown, such as current Tar Heels analyst Natrone Means, simply pre-dated the internet recruiting era. Safe to say though, the head coach has done well enough taking five-stars and turning them into draft picks, as he's been able to develop a former two-star like Javonte Williams into an early second-rounder. 

Though not quite as prolific in terms of raw numbers, Swinney is at least on track to challenge Brown given what he's been able to do at the position lately at Clemson. C.J. Spiller, for example, went in the top 10 after arriving on campus as a five-star recruit, while Travis Etienne went in the first round after starting his career off as a slightly overlooked three-star in high school. 

With seven guys overall drafted at running back, Swinney has roughly averaged one every other season. Though a few highly touted players haven't worked out, the average star-rating of a draftee coming out of high school being less than four-stars also underscores there's some development going on within the Tigers program, too.

Though he hasn't done it at Florida State, it's also worth mentioning that Norvell had a heck of a run while he was in charge at Memphis — producing three RBs in four seasons with a median slot falling on Day 2 of the draft. Darrell Henderson, Tony Pollard and Antonio Gibson were all considered two-stars out of high school, and the latter even had to go the junior college route before being properly utilized to attract NFL attention as well.

Pitt's Pat Narduzzi having three tailbacks taken in the draft isn't too surprising given his preference for establishing the run on offense, but notably, he had all three guys go in the fifth round or earlier after starting off their CFB careers trying to shed the label of being a three-star player coming out of high school.

Similarly, as much as Miami head coach Mario Cristobal wants his offenses to be physical at the line of scrimmage and to lean on the running game, the NFL production at the position has been notably lacking. He's had just one RB taken across 12 seasons in a top job, a former four-star in Royce Freeman that Cristobal didn't even recruit.

Tight ends

The Best: Jeff Brohm (Louisville)
Others of note: Dabo Swinney (Clemson), Mack Brown (North Carolina), Jeff Hafley (Boston College)

If there's one area where the ACC is decidedly light on, it's tight ends. Nine of the league's 14 coaches haven't had one drafted on their watch and of those that have, the majority have had their guys taken outside the top 100 of the draft.

Still, the ability to nurture guys at the position stands out for Louisville's native son Brohm and should be highly encouraging given new talent pipelines that should open up with the Cardinals. Brohm has had three tight ends drafted over the course of nine seasons — roughly one per recruiting cycle — and all three were taken in the fifth round or earlier. None of the three left high school with anything more than three-stars associated with their name and somebody like Tyler Higbee probably should have gone inside the top 100.

That kind of development in a career spanning less than a decade at two stops off the beaten path is enough to give the edge over coaches who have been at it far longer in Swinney and Brown.

Brown, notably, has had five tight ends drafted over a career crossing into 35 seasons, but he hasn't had one taken since former four-star Jermichael Finley all the way back in 2008. The UNC coach does have as many top-100 picks at the position as Swinney has total (three), but both are far more prolific in terms of producing pass catchers who tend to stand up instead of put their hands in the dirt.

Though he's among the group who have had just one tight end drafted, it's also worth pointing out that Boston College's Jeff Hafley has had a pretty good success story in Hunter Long going in the third round back in 2021 after joining the team as an overlooked two-star. Long is also one of three top-100 picks (out of four total) Hafley has produced as a head coach in just three seasons in charge.

Wide receivers

The Best: Dabo Swinney (Clemson)
Others of note: Mack Brown (North Carolina), Jeff Brohm (Louisville)
Surprisingly disappointing: Dino Babers (Syracuse)

Both Swinney and Brown have had a dozen receivers selected over the course of their careers, a figure that becomes doubly impressive considering the 12 other active ACC coaches have had a combined 13 wideouts drafted period. 

Swinney reached his numbers in less than half the time it took Brown (plus more first-rounders), giving him a slight edge in a tight race for the top spot at the position despite having one fewer top-100 selection (five to six).

Clemson's head coach, a former receiver himself and a position coach there, obviously has a keen eye on what to look for and has a quality record when it comes to sending players to the pros. Four of the six wideouts who were ranked five-stars under Swinney wound up drafted, and one of those, Justyn Ross, had a medical concern that was a contributing factor to that. On the other end of the spectrum, there are success stories like Jacoby Ford going from unranked to a near top-100 pick and ex-walk-on Hunter Renfrow becoming a fifth-round steal for the Las Vegas Raiders.

In between, a slew of four-stars at Clemson also found plenty of success and heard their name called during the draft. 

Over at North Carolina, Brown has a long track record and really has picked things up during his second stint in Chapel Hill. He's had four wideouts taken since his return to UNC (compared to just one during the first stop) and should soon pass the six drafted during the successful — and much longer — run at Texas. 

Louisville's Brohm is also worth mentioning given the way his offense allows guys — especially in the slot — to put up numbers and, in turn, get drafted. Three of his four wideouts picked by NFL teams went inside the first 100 selections, and of that group, only David Bell was considered above a three-star coming out of high school.

Recent fourth-rounder Charlie Jones underscores just how meaningful playing for Brohm can be, having begun his career as a two-star recruit at Buffalo, went underutilized at Iowa, and finally exploded onto the scene under a good play-caller at Purdue to become a middle-round selection. 

Coaches with an offensive background in the ACC produced an oversized amount of the receivers taken out of the conference, but there was an interesting outlier in Syracuse's Dino Babers. Despite annually having one of the most prolific passing attacks in terms of raw totals, Babers has not had a single receiver drafted. In fact, just two of his nine draft picks as a head coach have even been on offense (both at least went in the second round).

Offensive line

The Best: Dave Doeren (N.C. State)
Others of note: Mack Brown (North Carolina), Dabo Swinney (Clemson), Pat Narduzzi (Pitt)
Surprisingly disappointing: Mario Cristobal (Miami)

Due to longevity and overall success, it's pretty easy to point out that Brown has the most overall picks along the offensive line, and there's really only a handful of peers in the same age bracket (Nick Saban, Kirk Ferentz, etc.) that can compare to having 16 guys drafted in the trenches over the course of three decades.

Brown has also had multiple top-five picks at offensive line, and roughly 50% of all of them — at either guard or tackle — have gone in the first 100 picks. It's quite the sheer amount no matter how you look at it and is persistent dating back to his first stop at UNC, his run at Texas, and on through today with the Tar Heels. 

That said, the hit rate Doeren has had at rival N.C. State is pretty impressive, too, and is reinforced by the ability to take lightly recruited players out of high school and turn them into early selections slightly more often.

Consider that three-fifths of his offensive linemen taken have gone in the top 100 of the draft and not one of them was ranked above three-stars coming into college. Doeren helped develop tackle Ikem Ekwonu into an award-winning top-10 pick, made two-star center Garrett Bradbury into a first-rounder, and did equally well with guards like Joe Thuney and Chandler Zavala, too. That positional versatility is notable given center has been a bit of a blind spot for Brown, and somebody like Swinney (who has had just one more OL drafted than Doeren despite working with far more highly touted recruits). 

Doeren also has more top-100 selections than any other active ACC coach besides Brown.

Pitt's Pat Narduzzi has just one offensive lineman taken on Day 1 or Day 2 of the draft, but has also been excellent at sending guys to the league after being overlooked in the prep ranks. Brian O'Neill wound up as a second-rounder after arriving as a three-star, while 2023 fourth-round pick Carter Warren was originally recruited as a three-star out of high school.

If there is somebody in the conference who gets a bit of an eyebrow-raise in terms of production it might be the former offensive lineman himself in Cristobal. Though he's had a respectable four players drafted over the course of a dozen years as a head coach, just one of that bunch — four-star Penei Sewell — wound up being chosen in the first two days. The other three all went in the fifth round or later, and only Sewell was even recruited out of high school by Cristobal originally. 

It wouldn't be surprising to see this flip quickly given the resources and talent base the Hurricanes offer the ‘U' alum, but it nevertheless stuck out amid the group of active head coaches in the ACC.

Bryan Fischer is a college football writer for FOX Sports. He has been covering college athletics for nearly two decades at outlets such as NBC Sports, CBS Sports, Yahoo! Sports and NFL.com among others. Follow him on Twitter at @BryanDFischer.