Playoff poll takeaways: Why committee values Oklahoma over Notre Dame

Transitioning a sport from 70-plus years of polls and BCS rankings to a playoff selection committee model figured to take some time. Tuesday night, though, may ultimately prove to be a formative moment.

By bumping 10-1 Oklahoma from No. 7 to No. 3 while also dropping 10-1 Notre Dame from No. 4 to No. 6, the committee delivered its strongest message yet that a loss, no matter how bad it looks, does not define a team’s season.

Yes, the Sooners lost to 4-6 Texas, but “They have performed at a high level since then, so they've overcome that loss with their play on the field,” committee chairman Jeff Long said afterward. He cited both their consecutive Top 25 wins against No. 7 Baylor and No. 19 TCU and their six wins against teams above .500.

Conversely, Notre Dame has spent the past seven weeks touting the fact it almost beat current No. 1 Clemson. That’s certainly a much better loss than Oklahoma’s, and in the old system, it likely would have kept the Irish above the Sooners. But unlike Oklahoma, injury-ravaged Notre Dame is not playing its best football of late, struggling on offense the past two weeks against sub-.500 foes Wake Forest and Boston College. And its best wins have come against No. 15 Navy and No. 25 Temple.

The Irish can certainly boost their resume considerably this week by winning at No. 9 Stanford, but it would appear unlikely they’ll catch Oklahoma if the Sooners themselves beat No. 11 Oklahoma State. Given that only one other team above them, No. 4 Iowa or No. 5 Michigan State, is assured a loss, they really need someone besides OU to win the Big 12. Neither Baylor (10-1) nor the Cowboys (10-1) are likely to trump the Irish.

One other thing worth noting about Oklahoma: Many of the committee members access and lean on various advanced statistics provided by SportSource Analytics. Nearly any power rating you look at -- Sagarin, S&P+, the old BCS computer systems -- have the Sooners no lower than No. 3.

It’s probably not a coincidence they’re suddenly third in the committee’s, too.

A few other takeaways from the latest rankings:

The committee selectively applies strength of schedule metrics. Long repeatedly mentioned Oklahoma’s two straight Top 25 wins in justifying the Sooners’ No. 3 ranking. OK. But did you know that No. 2 Alabama is down to just one such victory -- against No. 21 Mississippi State? The Tide have beaten four teams (Wisconsin, Georgia, Texas A&M and LSU) that have fallen out of the committee’s rankings.

No one could reasonably contend the Tide have not played a difficult schedule. It ranks No. 8 in Sagarin, the highest by far of any remaining contender. But when you cite Top 25 wins so often, people are understandably confused that the same criteria do not apply across the board.

Similarly puzzling: Long was explicit that the committee viewed Iowa and Michigan State as “extremely close” and “equal in so many areas.” They put the Hawkeyes one spot higher because they’re undefeated. But Michigan State has beaten three current Top 25 foes and six plus-.500 opponents; Iowa, by contrast, has beaten one and three, respectively.

How is that extremely close or equal?

Michigan could actually make the playoff. The Big Ten is sitting pretty right now with four teams in the Top 10. If No. 4 Iowa and No. 5 Michigan State both win this weekend, their Big Ten championship meeting will be a de facto play-in game. But if Michigan State loses to Penn State, the Ohio State-Michigan winner will get its own shot at the Hawkeyes. Which means both have a chance to add two Top 10 wins down the stretch.

Two key points for the 9-2 Wolverines: The fact that they moved above Oklahoma State is significant. They’d still need a lot of help, but the Cowboys beating Oklahoma would be a big step in that direction. Also, unlike Ohio State, Michigan does have one Top 25 win already, 38-0 over No. 16 Northwestern. And if the committee is willing to forgive Oklahoma losing to Texas, it probably views that crazy Michigan State ending as a complete pass.

The mighty has fallen. In the first-ever committee rankings on Oct. 28, 2014, SEC teams Mississippi State, Auburn, Ole Miss and Alabama comprised four of the top six spots. On Tuesday night, Florida (10-1), following an overtime scare against C-USA foe FAU, dropped from eighth to 12th, leaving the SEC with just one Top 10 team and two Top 15. That’s one more than the American.

If Alabama does in fact make the playoff, and if Florida loses this week to Florida State, the SEC could send a relatively low-ranked team to replace the Tide in the Sugar Bowl, either the Gators or the winner of Saturday’s Egg Bowl between No. 18 Ole Miss and Mississippi State. Like the ACC and Big East used to do in the BCS.

Stewart Mandel is a senior college sports columnist for FOXSports.com. He covered college football and basketball for 15 years at Sports Illustrated. You can follow him on Twitter @slmandel and Facebook. Send emails and Mailbag questions to Stewart.Mandel@fox.com.