Picking the Big 12 Football Bowl Games

The holiday bowl season kicks into high gear this week with five games scheduled involving Big 12 football teams.

Oklahoma’s 8-9 bowl record since the formation of the Big 12 Conference 21 years ago is representative of the conference’s notable lack of success in bowl games.

The Big 12 is 70-75 overall in postseason bowls, and 18-19 in the last five years. The last time the Big 12 won more games than it lost in a bowl season was in 2011-12, when six of the eight conference teams that participate in postseason play that season were winners.

In the relatively short history of the Big12, only Texas, among the schools who played in five or more bowl games, has a record better than .500, at 10-7.

Five bowl games featuring teams from the Big 12 will take place over the next four days, all leading up to the signature game of the postseason this year, as far as the Big 12 is concerned, which will pit the conference-champions, the Oklahoma Sooners, against the Auburn Tigers, the second highest-ranked team out of the SEC this season.

The Big 12 2016 bowl season kicks off today in the Cactus Bowl in Phoenix, with a matchup between Baylor and Boise State.

Dec 3, 2016; Morgantown, WV, USA; Baylor Bears quarterback Zach Smith (4) changes the call at the line of scrimmage during the third quarter against the West Virginia Mountaineers at Milan Puskar Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ben Queen-USA TODAY Sports

Dec. 27, 2016

Cactus Bowl

Baylor Bears (6-6) vs. Boise State Broncos (10-2)

Chase Field, Phoenix, Ariz.

Baylor is the third team from the Big 12 to be matched up against Boise State in a postseason game this century. The other two Big 12 opponents of the Broncos (Oklahoma and TCU) didn’t fare so well. TCU actually wasn’t a member of the Big 12 when it squared off with Boise State, but the Sooners definitely were, and it was a game Bob Stoops and the fans of the Sooner Nation will not soon forget.

Baylor comes into its Cactus Bowl matchup with Boise State without the services of starting quarterback Seth Russell, who is out for the season with a dislocated ankle, and running back Shock Linwood, who has elected not to play and avoid the risk of injury that could hurt his NFL draft chances.

This has been a very difficult season for Baylor in the wake of a sexual assault scandal that rocked the university and led to the dismissal of head coach Art Briles.

Baylor lost six consecutive conference games after beginning the season 6-0 and, frankly, is fortunate to even be in a bowl this postseason. Given what the Bears have been through all season and, especially, over the final six weeks of the regular season, it’s hard to imagine they will go into this bowl game with much fight.

Meanwhile, Boise State has another chance to beat up on a Power Five school, and the Broncos have the offensive balance to give the bedraggled Baylor defense all kinds of fits.

Prediction: Boise State 38, Baylor 24

Dec 3, 2016; Fort Worth, TX, USA; Kansas State Wildcats quarterback Jesse Ertz (16) scrambles out of the pocket against the TCU Horned Frogs during the first half at Amon G. Carter Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jim Cowsert-USA TODAY Sports

Dec. 28, 2016

Texas Bowl

Kansas State Wildcats (8-4) vs. Texas A&M Aggies (8-4)

NRG Stadium, Houston, Texas

This is a matchup of two former Big 12 foes. As members of the Big 12 the two schools split 10 games. Overall, A&M owns an 8-7 edge.

Texas A&M is led by former Oklahoma quarterback Trevor Knight. Knight is a better runner than a passer, although Alabama make take exception to that considering Knight’s five touchdown passes in the Sooners stunning 2014 Sugar Bowl victory over the Crimson Tide.

Knight poses a defensive challenge because of his ability to run or throw the ball. It is not necessary for him to win the game with his legs, though, because he has talented freshman Trayveon Williams in the backfield with him. Williams rushed for over 1,000 yards this season.

K-State quarterback Jessie Ertz is most dangerous when he tucks the ball and takes off on foot. The Wildcats like to run the ball, and they have several running backs who can hurt you in the run game, but Ertz is the most dangerous. The K-State signal caller led the team in rushing this season, gaining 945 yards on the ground.

Texas A&M would be ill-advised to ignore the K-State passing game, though. Wide receivers Dominique Heath and Byron Pringle can fly when they bring in a reception.

These are two teams that ended the regular season headed in opposite directions. Kansas State won its final three games to finish with an 8-4 mark. Meanwhile, Texas A&M was on the losing end of three of its final four regular-season games.

Neither team plays particularly strong pass defense, which could be the area where this game is won or lost.

Kansas State may have a better overall defense than A&M, but the Aggies are a better team offensively.

Bowl games are generaly won by teams that play the best defense, and I believe Bill Snyder, the master of finding ways to make you beat yourself, will get the job done in this one, despite the fact that this game is virtually a home game for A&M, being played less than two hours from College Station.

Prediction: Kansas State 35, Texas A&M 31

Nov 19, 2016; Morgantown, WV, USA; West Virginia Mountaineers quarterback Skyler Howard (3) hands the ball off to West Virginia Mountaineers running back Kennedy McKoy (4) during the first quarter at Milan Puskar Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ben Queen-USA TODAY Sports

Dec. 28, 2016

Russell Athletic Bowl

West Virginia Mountaineers (10-2) vs. Miami Hurricanes (8-4)

Citrus Bowl, Orlando, Fla.

Like the bowl matchup between K-State and Texas A&M, this year’s Russell Athletic Bowl features a clash between two former conference foes. As members of the Big East, West Virginia and Miami met 13 times, with the Hurricanes winning 11 of them. Miami also owns a big advantage all-time, going 16-3 against the Mountaineers.

This is an intriguing matchup. Miami quarterback Brad Kaaya is the Hurricanes’ all-time leader in passing (which is saying a lot with all the great QBs that have come out of Miami). He may find the going tough, though, going against an aggressive and very physical West Virginia defense. Mountaineer cornerback Rasul Douglas is one of the best in the country. Douglas has picked off one more interception (8) than Kaaya has thrown this season (7).

Miami has been a very streaky team this season. The Hurricanes won their first four contests, dropped the next four and closed out the regular season with four consecutive victories.

West Virginia has a very strong running game, with a bevy of solid running backs. Unfortunately, the Mountaineers have been hit pretty hard with injuries in that area. Despite the injuries, West Virginia was second in the Big 12 this season, averaging 240 rushing yards per game.

The two quarterbacks are going to be the key to which team comes out on top in this game. West Virginia has the more balanced of the two offensive attacks, but West Virginia likes to lull defenses to sleep on its running ability and then stick the dagger in with playmakers in the passing game. Miami is going to try to put a lot of stress on the back end of the Mountaineer defense.

The team that defends the passing game the best is going to have a leg up in this one.

Prediction: West Virginia 31, Miami 28

Nov 12, 2016; Stillwater, OK, USA; Oklahoma State Cowboys wide receiver James Washington (28) makes a catch as Texas Tech Red Raiders defensive back Justis Nelson (31) defends during the second half at Boone Pickens Stadium. Cowboys won 45-44. Mandatory Credit: Rob Ferguson-USA TODAY Sports

Dec. 29, 2016

Alamo Bowl

Oklahoma State Cowboys (9-3) vs. Colorado Buffaloes (10-3)

Alamo Dome, San Antonio, Texas

Another matchup featuring two longtime conference foes. As members of the Big 12, Oklahoma State and Colorado split eight games. As members of the Big Eight before that, Colorado prevailed 20 times in 35 games. Overall, the Buffaloes own a 26-19 advantage vs. the Cowboys and are a 3.5-point favorite in their bowl pairing this season.

Oklahoma State likes to throw the football (what else is new in the Big 12?) with quarterback Mason Rudolph, and he has one of the best pass receivers and playmakers in the country in wide receiver James Washington as a deep threat.

Colorado has playmakers of its own in the defensive secondary, which is going to make the Cowboy spread formation passing game vs. the Colorado pass defense the key matchup to watch for in this Alamo Bowl battle between the No. 2 teams in the Big 12 and Pac-12 this season.

If Oklahoma State is going to win this game – a big “if” – it is probably going to have to do it with its ground attack, led by Justice Hill. Hill, a freshman, eclipsed the 1,000-yard mark on the ground in his very first season of collegiate ball.

This projects as one of the best matchup of the entire bowl season.

Both teams have offensive firepower, but Colorado is the better team defensively, in my view, and that will be the difference.

Prediction: Colorado 28, Oklahoma State 21

Dec. 30, 2016

Liberty Bowl

TCU Horned Frogs (6-6) vs. Georgia Bulldogs (7-5)

Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium, Memphis, Tenn.

This contest is likely to be played SEC style: Run the ball and stop the other team’s run game.

Historically, TCU plays fundamentally sound defensive football, but this season they have been gashed by the run as well as through the air. In Nick Chubb, Georgia has one of the best in the country toting the rock in the run game, and the Horned Frogs have not shown much consistency being able to stop teams on the ground.

TCU will try to stop Chubb and put enough pressure on Georgia quarterback Jacob Eason to disrupt his rhythm and force him into bad decisions with the ball.

I’m betting that TCU’s more wide-open, Big 12-style of offense will be better than Georgia’s defense and that offense will win the day in this low-scoring battle in the trenches.

Prediction: TCU 24, Georgia 20

If my picks come out as projected, the Big 12 will be 3-2 by year’s end, with the New Year’s Six battle between Oklahoma and Auburn remaining and giving the Big 12 a chance at a 3-0 sweep against teams from the SEC this bowl season.