Penn State Football: Keys to the Game vs. Wisconsin
Oct 12, 2013; University Park, PA, USA; A general view of the Big Ten logo prior to the game between the Penn State Nittany Lions and the Michigan Wolverines at Beaver Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matthew O’Haren- USA TODAY Sports
Penn State has won the Big Ten East Division. This week the Lions battle the Wisconsin Badgers in the Big Ten Championship game. What are the keys to the game?
Penn State capped off a remarkable regular season last weekend by defeating the Michigan State Spartans 45-12. In the process, the Nittany Lions, by virtue of Ohio State besting Michigan, captured the BIg Ten’s East Division title. And, with winning the division title, a trip to Indianapolis to take on the West Division Champions – the Wisconsin Badgers.
The Nittany Lions have won eight consecutive contests by bludgeoning their opponents into submission – usually with a feverish second half rally. Last week against Michigan State was no exception. The Lions trailed 12-10 at the half. In the second half, the Nittany Lion offense exploded for 35 unanswered points. In fact, Penn State averages 22.8 points scored in the second half of games, good for second nationally. More than likely, the Nittany Lions will need to extend that value if they want to defeat the Badgers.
While much of the national media’s attention has been on the resurgence of Penn State, the Wisconsin Badgers have quietly gone about their business and posted a solid 10-2 record. Only defeats to Michigan and Ohio State have prevented Wisconsin from having an unblemished record.
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The Badgers enter the Big Ten title game sporting then nation’s seventh ranked defense in terms of total defense. Delving a bit deeper, the Badgers defensive front, a base 3-4 defense, has been solid, but not outstanding. The real measure of the Badgers defense lies in its linebackers and secondary. Penn State, especially Trace McSorley, will need to find a way to navigate the Big Ten’s fifth best pass defense.
To see what else Penn State needs to do to win the Big Ten title, continue reading the Keys to The Game.
Key No. 1 – Penn State’s Ability to Successfully Run the Football
Nov 26, 2016; University Park, PA, USA; Penn State Nittany Lions running back Saquon Barkley (26) leaps into the end zone for a touchdown against the Michigan State Spartans during the second quarter at Beaver Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports
Penn State’s elephant in the room has been whether or not All-Big Ten running back Saquon Barkley will play, and if he does, how effective will he be.
Last week Barkley left the game in the third quarter with an apparent leg/ankle injury. Coach Franklin has done his best to quell the concern, indicating that Barkley has practiced all this week and has looked good. He will need to be good because the Wisconsin rush defense is the best in the Big Ten, allowing a scant 101 yards per game.
Penn State’s offensive line must maintain blocks long enough to allow Barkley to make yards on the ground. Against Michigan State, the Spartans did not respect Penn State’s offensive line. As a result, the Spartan defensive ends stayed wide to guard against Barkley running the ball. They gambled that their defensive front four would be able to neutralize Penn State’s offensive line, thereby keeping McSorley from running for large gains.
Look for Wisconsin to employ the same strategy on Saturday night. Most Big Ten teams do not believe Penn State’s banged up offensive line poses much of a threat. As a result, expect the Badgers to place an extra player in the box to limit Saquon Barkley and/or the running ability of Trace McSorley.
The extra man in the box allows the ends to stay wide forcing Barkley/McSorley to the middle, into the waiting arms of the defense. Assuming Barkley is healthy, his ability to make yards on the ground will be critical to Penn State’s success.
Key No. 2 – Penn State’s Ability to Protect the Middle of the Field
Oct 29, 2016; Madison, WI, USA; Wisconsin Badgers running back Dare Ogunbowale (23) and wide receiver Robert Wheelwright (15) celebrate after scoring a touchdown during overtime against the Nebraska Cornhuskers at Camp Randall Stadium. Wisconsin won 23-17. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
Most will agree the place to attack Wisconsin’s offense is at the quarterback position. Badger starting quarterback Alex Hornibrook left lasts week’s win over Minnesota with a concussion. He is listed as questionable for the championship game (my guess is he plays). Whether Hornibrook plays or senior Bart Houston plays, look for the Badgers to utilize short passes over the middle of the field.
When Penn State brings pressure with their linebackers, the middle of the field has been left open. Teams have not made Penn State pay yet. That could all change on Saturday. The Badgers love to use running back Dare Ogunbowale and tight end Troy Fumagalli in short passing situations. Look for those two to be a factor in stunting the Penn State pass rush.
The Nittany Lions can thwart the Badgers ability to use the field when passing by dropping their linebackers in coverage. In doing so, the Penn State defensive front must be able to get home and put pressure on the Wisconsin quarterback.
Saturday night will be a gamble for Penn State defensive coordinator Brent Pry. When does he blitz and when he drop into coverage? Either way, the middle of the field has been open the past few weeks. Opposing teams simply have not been able to take advantage. If Wisconsin can find a way, Penn State will be forced to adjust in ways that take them out of their comfort zone.
Key No. 3 – Penn State RT Chasz Wright Against Wisconsin OLB TJ Watt
Sep 24, 2016; East Lansing, MI, USA; Wisconsin linebacker T.J. Watt (42) reacts after a teammate sacked Michigan State quarterback Tyler O
Wisconsin utilizes a 3-4 base defense.
While their defensive front three have been steady, they have not be outstanding. The Wisconsin defense makes their money with their linebackers and their secondary. Players like linebackers TJ Watt and TJ Edwards have been monsters against opposing teams.
Watt leads the Badgers in tackles for loss (13) and sacks (9.5). His ability to pressure the opposing team’s quarterback has led to hurried passes and ultimately interceptions. He has great strength and closing speed.
On Saturday, Watt will be going up against Penn State’s RT, Chasz Wright.
Wright is the third right tackle Penn State has used this year (Andrew Nelson, Brendan Mahon). He has held his own since taking over the position against Indiana. Wright will have his hands full with Watt, but he can controlled if Penn State uses a max protection scheme. Look for Penn State to use either running back Saquon Barkley or tight end Mike Gesicki to chip on Watt.
Keeping Watt out of the Penn State backfield will give quarterback Trace McSorley time to find one of his possession receivers.
Final Thoughts:
Dec 3, 2011; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Detail view of the Big Ten championship trophy after the game between the Michigan State Spartans and the Wisconsin Badgers at the Lucas Oil Stadium. The Badgers defeated the Spartans 42-39. Mandatory Credit: Richard Mackson-USA TODAY Sports
Both teams are tremendous and are solid in their own right. Both have gotten to Indianapolis in various ways. Wisconsin has ridden the coat tails of their top-notched defense while scoring enough points to pull out victories. Penn State punched its ticket to Indy by making second half adjustments and out-slugging their opponents. So which style wins the game Saturday night?
Most likely, the winner will be the team that can impose their style of play the most on the other.
Offensively, Penn State needs to be able to maintain blocks and give quarterback Trace McSorley the time to either throw down field or use his legs to make a play. For Wisconsin, they need to stifle Penn State’s playmakers and make McSorley uncomfortable in the pocket.
However, there a few factors that are worth mentioning.
Penn State has some of the most improved special teams play in the country. Do not be surprised if the strong legs of punter Blake Gillikin and Joey Julius help to change field position. This could be key, especially if the Wisconsin offense has trouble moving the football. Also, Penn State placekicker Tyler Davis was just named first team All-Big Ten placekicker. His ability to calm and cool under pressure could be the difference in Saturday’s game.
Finally, keep your eye on how Penn State’s wide receivers fare against the man-to-man coverage they will likely see from Wisconsin’s secondary. The Badgers have been solid all year in the back half of their defense. Their cornerbacks (Derrick Tindal and Sojourn Shelton) and their safeties (Leo Musso and D’Cota Dixon) have combined for 16 of the team’s league-leading 21 interceptions.
Can Penn State’s stable of wide receivers make enough one-on-one plays to force Wisconsin to have to roll help to a side of the field? Look for Sojourn Shelton to be matched up with Penn State receiver Chris Godwin. The X factors in the Penn State passing game will be tight end Mike Gesicki and the deep passes to Saeed Blacknall.
If they can make plays, Penn State can become Big Ten champions.