Oregon vs. Oregon State: Prediction, odds, picks
The No. 6 Oregon Ducks (10-1) are massive, 14-point favorites at home at Autzen Stadium against the No. 15 Oregon State Beavers (8-3) on Friday, November 24, 2023. Both teams have strong rush defenses, with the Ducks 11th against the run in the nation, and the Beavers 18th defending the running game.
Against the Arizona State Sun Devils in their most recent contest, the Ducks won 49-13. The Beavers lost to the Washington Huskies, 22-20, in their last game.
Which school will win the matchup for state supremacy?
Here's everything you need to know about the matchup between Oregon State and Oregon — the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and an expert pick from our betting analyst Geoff Schwartz.
Oregon vs. Oregon State Game Information & Odds
- When: Friday, November 24, 2023 at 8:30 PM ET
- Location: Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Oregon
- TV: FOX
- Live boxscore on FOX Sports
Oregon vs. Oregon State Prediction
- Pick ATS: Oregon State (+14)
- Pick OU: Under (62.5)
- Prediction: Oregon 36, Oregon State 23
Pick via FOX Sports Betting Expert Geoff Schwartz
Last weekend was a game the Beavers had been building toward for an entire calendar year. They knew their team was excellent this season, with a chance to compete for a Pac-12 title. The Beavers had won 17 of their last 18 home games and here was their chance to take down a top-five ranked Washington Huskies football team.
They failed.
Not only did the Beavers fall short, they didn’t play all that well in losing the game. Washington didn’t score a point in the second half and Oregon State was not able to capitalize because DJ Uiagalelei did not play a good game and the Beavers passing attack suffered because of it.
This Beavers squad — fresh off an emotional physical game — now heads to Autzen Stadium to play the well-rested Ducks. Oregon beat Arizona State 49-13 last weekend and was able to rest its starters for more than a quarter after leading 42-0 early in the third. Oregon also has to be motivated by how last year's game played out. The Ducks were up 31-10 against the Beavers in Corvallis before Oregon State rattled off 28-straight points via the ground attack. It did not pass the ball the entire time during the comeback.
To remind the players of this defeat, the coaching staff has put the fourth quarter on loop in the football facility for everyone to watch and remember.
Now, onto football.
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Oregon State’s offense operates very well when staying in its own lane. That lane consists of running the ball well, play action passes, screens and QB runs on third down. When this lane is clear of traffic, the Beavers can score points. When the Beavers have to face a run defense like Oregon's and the QB has to win the game, that puts them in an uncomfortable place.
Uiagalelei is completing only 57% of his passes this season and that’s an unacceptable number for a quarterback of his quality. Oregon’s going to sell out to stop the run and play man-coverage behind it. The Ducks' corners are big and the Beavers' WRs are small. It seems like it would be difficult for the Beavers to move the ball in this game. Also worth noting: They score fewer points on the road than at home.
Staying with the home road splits, the Beavers defense allows 13 points at home and 28 points on the road. It is a completely different defense and maybe that’s opponent-related, as the Beavers played Washington State and Arizona on the road. However, they just allowed 22 points to Washington at home, so it just seems like a home-road split thing. Oregon’s offense ranks second in the country in points per drive, and while Oregon State’s defense plays well together as a unit, the Beavers don’t stop the run well. They rank 126th in tackle success rate and don’t generate much pressure with their front four.
The Oregon offense is locked in, and it will score a bunch on the Beavers. Remember, last season it had 31 points in three quarters while going 0-for-5 on fourth down. I doubt that happens again.
Finally, it appears Beavers head coach Jonathan Smith is leaving the team after this game to take a rumored job at Michigan State. We’ve routinely seen teams in this spot play down as players know their coach is leaving.
PICK: Oregon (-14) to win by more than 14 points
Oregon vs. Oregon State Betting Insights
- Per the spread and over/under, the implied score for the matchup is Ducks 38, Beavers 24.
- The Ducks have an 85.0% chance to collect the win in this contest based on the moneyline's implied probability. The Beavers hold a 19.7% implied probability.
- Oregon has covered seven times in 10 games with a spread this season.
- Oregon State has covered five times in 10 matchups with a spread this year.
Oregon vs. Oregon State: Head-to-Head
- In their past two matchups, Oregon State holds a split 1-1 record against Oregon.
- The Ducks and the Beavers have been an even matchup over their last two head-to-head meetings, holding an even 1-1 record against the spread. In those two games, the two teams went over the point total both times.
- Over their last two head-to-head contests, Oregon has racked up 72 points, while Oregon State has compiled 67.