Oregon State vs. Washington: Prediction, odds, picks
The No. 10 Oregon State Beavers (8-2) are only 2.5-point favorites at home at Reser Stadium against the No. 5 Washington Huskies (10-0) on Saturday, November 18. Both squads feature prolific offenses, with the Beavers 14th in points per game, and the Huskies fifth.
Against the Stanford Cardinal in their last contest, the Beavers won 62-17. The Huskies' last contest was against the Utah Utes, and they won by a score of 35-28.
Will the Huskies keep their undefeated streak intact on the road?
Here's everything you need to know about the matchup between Washington and Oregon State — the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and a pick from our betting analyst Geoff Schwartz.
Oregon State vs. Washington Game Information & Odds
- When: Saturday, November 18, 2023 at 7:30 PM ET
- Location: Reser Stadium in Corvallis, Oregon
- TV: ABC
- Live boxscore on FOX Sports
Oregon State vs. Washington Prediction
- Pick ATS: Washington (+2.5)
- Pick OU: Under (63.5)
- Prediction: Washington 32, Oregon State 30
Pick via FOX Sports Betting Analyst Geoff Schwartz
All right, folks, you’re going to help me work through my thoughts on this game. I’m going to start with the non "football" stuff before I talk about this matchup on the field.
The Beavers have lost a single home game since the beginning of the 2021 season, a 17-14 loss to USC last season. A closer look at their home/road splits over the last two seasons gives an eye-opening look at their home success.
2022
Home: 6-1 with an average scoring margin of 36.3-17.85
Away: 3-2 with an average scoring margin of 26.2-28.4
2023
Home: 5-0 with an average scoring margin of 40–12.8
Away: 3-2 with an average scoring margin of 35.8–28.2
Their offense is slightly worse on the road, while the defense has regressed big time away from Reser Stadium. This can be explained by the quality of opponents home and away.
Last season, Oregon State played offensive-friendly teams Fresno State, Utah and Washington on the road, while only playing Oregon at home.
This season, the Beavers played Washington State, Arizona and Cal on the road, while getting Utah, UCLA and Stanford at home. When the Beavers played Utah, their offense was scoring less than Iowa.
UCLA is 71st in points per drive, and the Cardinal are in the 100s. Now Washington comes to town with its highly potent offense, which is fifth in points per drive. I don’t know if Oregon State has the secondary to stop the Huskies wide receivers.
The Beavers are 70th in plays over 20-plus yards in the air. It might be easy to say Reser Stadium’s environment is so loud it will disrupt the Huskies, but this group went to Autzen and won last season. UW won at USC this year. I don’t know how much crowd noise matters to Washington’s offense.
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The Huskies have won 17 straight games, eight of which are won by eight points or fewer. Another three games were by 10 points or fewer, so 11 of 17 games were by 10 points or fewer.
Their games are close, especially this season, because of their defense. Washington's D is 103rd in stopping opponents on third down. The Huskies are 112th in havoc rate, 123 in tackle success rate and 133rd in sack rate. They do have players who get to the quarterback but struggle to finish with a sack.
The Oregon State offense is a machine. The Beavers run the ball extremely well, with the third-best rushing success rate, and have two running backs averaging more than 5.8 yards per carry.
At his best, quarterback DJ Uiagalelei is steady in the play-action passing game but has only completed 58% of his passes. He’s still prone to some bad throws, but it doesn’t hurt the offense much.
Oregon State will also rotate in true freshman Aiden Chiles, who looks like he’s the future of the program. Against defenses like Washington, OSU scored 21 against Utah, 36 against UCLA, and 24 against Arizona. The Beavers should get into the high 20s against UW, maybe even the low 30s.
So here’s my dilemma with this game: Sharps are on the Beavers. The Beavers play much better at home. Washington is sort of due for a loss.
But what does that mean in reality?
There’s a quality to winning football games and Washington has beaten three ranked teams this season. Oregon State’s best win was at home against Utah before the Utes figured out their offense. I think the Huskies are better, and I’m taking them to win this game.
PICK: Washington (+2.5) to lose by fewer than 2.5 points (or win outright)
Oregon State vs. Washington Betting Insights
- Based on the spread and over/under, the implied score for the tilt is Beavers 33, Huskies 30.
- The Beavers have a 57.8% chance to claim victory in this meeting per the moneyline's implied probability. The Huskies have a 46.3% implied probability.
- Oregon State has put together a 5-4-0 record against the spread this season.
- Washington is 4-5-1 ATS this year.
Oregon State vs. Washington: Head-to-Head
- In their past two matchups, Washington owns a split 1-1 record against Oregon State.
- The last two times the Beavers have played the Huskies, they have put up a 2-0 record against the spread. The scoring has yet to go over the total.
- Oregon State and Washington have matched up evenly on offense over their past two matchups, with each team producing 48 points in those games.