Oklahoma vs. Texas Tech: Which Defense Will Best Weather the Aerial Storm?

In the mind of most fans of Big 12 football, Oklahoma vs. Texas Tech is merely another way of saying, “Put ’em up (as in balls in the air) and shut ’em up” or “Don’t bother to worry about defense; the team that scores the most points wins.”

Oct 15, 2016; Norman, OK, USA; Oklahoma Sooners quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) looks to pass the ball against the Kansas State Wildcats during the second quarter at Gaylord Family – Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark D. Smith-USA TODAY Sports

That’s a bit of an overstatement in that defense actually will be the deciding factor in this matchup. But the fact remains that these two teams have explosive offenses that can strike quickly anywhere on the field and put up plenty of points.

What to Know About Oklahoma

The Oklahoma offense has found its groove in the past three games, all wins over Big 12 opponents. The Sooners are averaging 525 yards per game for the season, but over the past three outings that number has gone up to 572 yards of offense per game and with a good balance of run and pass plays.

The connection between quarterback Baker Mayfield and receiver Dede Westbrook has been other worldly the past three weeks. The pair has hooked up for 26 receptions, 574 yards and eight touchdowns, half of which have been for 40 or more yards. Westbrook isn’t Mayfield’s only receiving target, however. Fourteen different Sooners have caught passes through the first six games.

The Sooners will have to do without Samaje Perine, out two to three games with a slight muscle pull in his hamstring. That will leave the primary rushing duties up to Joe Mixon, who ranks fourth in the Big 12 in rushing yards. That amounts to a big break for Texas Tech because the combination of Perine and Mixon is extremely tough to defend and the Red Raider are one of the worst in the country in stopping the run.

The OU defense, which has been a concern all season, also has shown improvement the past few weeks. The Sooners have been getting better penetration and pressure on the quarterback. In consecutive wins over TCU, Texas and Kansas State, the defense has recorded 10 sacks and 16 tackles for lost yardage.

Forcing turnovers has been another problem area. The Sooners have only five takeaways all season. They will need to force some against the Red Raiders if they hope to slow down Texas Tech’s highly effective short passing game.

The big story this weekend, of course, is the return of Mayfield to the place where he began his collegiate career. Keeping his emotions under control will be a major test, as the Red Raider fans will have the hecklers out in force in an effort to distract and disrupt the Sooner quarterback.

What to Know About Texas Tech

Sep 29, 2016; Lubbock, TX, USA; Texas Tech Red Raiders quarterback Patrick Mahomes (5) is knocked out of the game by Kansas Jayhawks safety Fish Smithson (9) and Isaiah Bean (19) in the second half at Jones AT&T Stadium. Texas Tech defeated Kansas 55-19. Mandatory Credit: Michael C. Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

It is the same old story with this Red Raiders team: all offense and no defense. Texas Tech’s game is to outscore you, and they are exceptionally adept at getting to the end zone, and in a hurry.

Led by one of the country’s best passing quarterbacks in sophomore Patrick Mahomes, the Red Raiders are No. 1 in the nation in passing yards, averaging 510 yards a game (that compares with 323 ypg for the Sooners).

Mahomes injured his shoulder in the Red Raiders’ loss two weeks ago at Kansas State. It appeared to still be bothering him last weekend at home against West Virginia, so that will be something to keep an eye on in Saturday’s game with the Sooners.

Mahomes’ No. 1 target is Jonathan Giles, who has 43 catches and nine touchdowns and leads the Big 12 with 750 receiving yards. But Giles is just one of a plethora of receiving targets that the Red Raiders employ in their version of the Air Raid attack.

Texas Tech doesn’t run the ball that much. The passing game is the Red Raiders’ main weapon and they do it mostly with short, crossing routes, boundary passes and quick throws, an offensive attack that is very difficult to defend. When Tech does run the ball, however, Demarcus Felton is usually the main man.

As prolific as the Red Raiders are on the offensive end, they are dreadfully inept on defense. They are last in the Big 12 in defending the run and the third worst team in the conference (104th in the nation) in pass defense. That is not a particularly good formula going up against a balanced Oklahoma offense.

Texas Tech is the best in the Big 12 in third-down conversions, with a 53-percent success ratio, and, importantly, leads the conference in time of possession. Oklahoma is No. 2 in that category, which may help to mitigate the time on the field for the Sooner defensive unit.

Game Prediction

The two teams come into this game going in different directions. The Sooners have won three consecutive games to open their Big 12 schedule, while the Red Raiders have lost two in a row. Bob Stoops is 12-5 against Texas Tech and is 3-0 vs. Tech head coach Kliff Kingsbury. Additionally, Oklahoma has won 10 consecutive games against Big 12 opponents and has won its last eight true road games.

The Sooners are just 2-3, however, in their last five visits to Lubbock.

Because of the high-octane nature of these two offenses, it is a reasonable assumption that the over/under in this game will be in the 80s or 90s. That leads me to believe whichever teams gets to 40 first will come out on top.

As dreadful as the Oklahoma defense has been at time this season, Texas Tech has been worse. The Sooners are 99-1 under Bob Stoops when they score 40 or more points. OU will get to 40 first and prevail in this one, upping its Big 12 mark to 4-0 for the first time since 2004. Oklahoma 48, Texas Tech 35