Ohio State's quest for toughness: How Ryan Day changed his approach

In 2021, the final week of November was particularly brutal for Ohio State head coach Ryan Day. Not only had Day's team lost to archrival Michigan for the first time in a decade to spoil the Buckeyes' hopes of reaching the College Football Playoff, but he also had to endure a pair of pointed barbs in the never-ending war of words between two programs that despise each other. 

The first came from Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh, whose glowing postgame press conference following his team's 42-27 triumph on a snow-swept day in Ann Arbor included a jab that questioned whether Day was truly worthy of inheriting the Ohio State job from predecessor Urban Meyer in 2019. "Sometimes people that are standing on third base think they hit a triple, you know?" Harbaugh said in what became an instant soundbite. "But they didn't."

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The second came two days later, when then-Michigan offensive coordinator Josh Gattis questioned the Buckeyes' heart in an appearance on the "Inside Michigan Football" radio show. "They're a finesse team," Gattis said. "They're not a tough team. And we knew that going into the game that we can out-physical them, we can out-tough [them], and that was gonna be the key to the game, and that's what we prepared for all year long. You saw earlier this year in the game they lost to Oregon [that] Oregon was the most physical team on the field. That's the way they lost, and we committed to that recipe. And it paid off."

Harbaugh's quip was immediately etched into the annals of the sport's most storied rivalry, but it's Gattis' comment that's worth revisiting in light of recent events surrounding Day, whose impassioned remarks following a 17-14 win over Notre Dame on Sept. 23 have remained in the national discourse. After beating the Irish, Day used his on-field interview to shoot back at former Notre Dame head coach Lou Holtz for a critique the College Football Hall of Famer made on a podcast. Holtz, now 86, listed the teams that have defeated the Buckeyes in recent years and said, "Everybody who beats them does so because they're more physical than Ohio State."

Day returned fire in a nationally televised interview seconds after the clock struck zero in South Bend: "I'd like to know where Lou Holtz is right now. What he said about our team, I cannot believe. This is a tough team right here."

Though it took until 2023 for Day's emotions to finally overflow, there are certain Ohio State fans who believe everything changed the day Michigan toppled the Buckeyes two years ago. To them, watching the Wolverines win in the manner that they did — with a throwback brand of football that relied on a dominant offensive line, two- and three-tight end sets, and a running game that chewed up 297 yards and six touchdowns — triggered something of an identity crisis for Day, who doubles as Ohio State's play caller. From that game forward, some fans say, Day has become preoccupied with proving his offense can win in the trenches despite shaping his roster in the mold of a high-flying, aerial force.

Only Day knows for certain whether his philosophy has shifted and — if it did — when the impetus for such a change occurred. But a review by FOX Sports of every offensive snap since Day took over revealed significant differences in Ohio State's approach to short-yardage and goal-line situations before and after the stinging defeat at Michigan. The unofficial study showed Day skewed more heavily toward running the ball in both scenarios beginning in 2022, immediately following an offseason that he said was dedicated to increasing toughness. 

"We've got to play physical," Day said prior to his team's spring game that year. "We've got to be tough. If we want to reach our goals this year, we're going to have to be that way, we're going to have to play that way."

He doubled down at Big Ten Media Days several months later: "I think that with our guys and the offseason we've had and showing toughness in this preseason, you're going to get what you emphasize, and we'll make sure we emphasize that again this year."

FOX Sports' examination of Day's play calling focused on the following criteria from 2019-present when starters were still on the field: every Ohio State third down with 3 yards to gain or fewer; every snap within 5 yards of the end zone; how often the quarterback was used to run the football. 

(Note: Variables such as potential audibles at the line of scrimmage and subjective choices about when reserves entered each game for mop-up duty make all data unofficial.)

2019 SEASON

• Goal-line run-to-pass ratio: 1.61 to 1
• Short-yardage run-to-pass ratio: 5.57 to 1

The added threat of quarterback Justin Fields as a runner afforded Day the chance to lean more heavily on running the ball in short-yardage and goal-line situations than at any point in his head-coaching career. His goal line run-to-pass ratio of 1.61 to 1 was the highest Ohio State has experienced in the last five years outside the pandemic-shortened 2020 season for which limited games skew the sample size. Day's short-yardage run-to-pass ratio of 5.57 to 1 is nearly double that of any other season and reflects a willingness to have Fields, who ran for 484 yards and 10 touchdowns that year, carry the ball. Fields' 16 quarterback runs in short-yardage and goal-line situations were twice as many as the next-highest total from a quarterback during a full season of Day's tenure. 

"With Justin Fields, we did it a lot," Day said earlier this week when asked about quarterback sneaks during his Tuesday press conference. "He could really move the pile."

2021 SEASON

• Goal-line run-to-pass ratio: 1.15 to 1
• Short-yardage run-to-pass ratio: 1.78 to 1

Aside from the perceived shift before and after Ohio State's loss to Michigan at the end of the 2021 campaign, the other seismic change is associated with C.J. Stroud, a pure pocket passer who replaced Fields as the starting quarterback. Day's goal line run-to-pass ratio dropped from 1.61 to 1 in 2019 to 1.15 to 1 in 2021. The adjustment in short-yardage situations was even more noticeable as Day reduced his running rate from 5.57 to 1 in 2019 to 1.78 to 1 with Stroud operating the offense. That Stroud only carried the ball twice in goal-line and short-yardage scenarios speaks to how differently Day treated two quarterbacks with differing skill sets. 

2022 SEASON

• Goal-line run-to-pass ratio: 1.59 to 1
• Short-yardage run-to-pass ratio: 3 to 1

The change in short-yardage and goal-line play calling from 2021 to 2022 is what fans point to when discussing the impact Day's first loss to Michigan had on the program. Following that game, coaches and players spent the offseason talking about their need to become stronger and more physical at the point of attack, to win their one-on-one matchups in the trenches with more regularity, and the play calling in 2022 seems to reflect Day's desire to publicly unveil those efforts. Day's goal line run-to-pass ratio increased from 1.15 to 1 in 2021 to 1.59 to 1 in 2022, while his short-yardage run-to-pass ratio skyrocketed from 1.78 to 1 in 2021 to 3 to 1 in 2022. Even Stroud became more involved in the Buckeyes' transition toward pounding the rock by carrying the ball four times as often as the year prior in those scenarios.

‘In big games, a lot of it comes down to short yardage’

"I think it's just the mentality across the board," Day said at Big Ten Media Days in 2022. "It isn't just one play of running two people into each other and saying ‘this is toughness.' I think a big part of it is your mentality, and we call it competitive stamina, of being able to play four quarters or being able to play a full season."

The efficacy of Day's apparent shift toward smash-mouth football is open to interpretation, both conceptually and statistically. There are some Ohio State fans who enjoy seeing the Buckeyes attempt to power their way to first downs or touchdowns because the caliber of player Day recruits suggests his team should be able to do this more often than not. There are others who wish Day would simply eschew power football altogether and dare opposing defenses to cover what is annually one of the deepest receiving corps in the country. 

Numerically speaking, advanced metrics from CollegeFootballData.com suggest the Buckeyes are — and have been — among the worst teams in the country at converting short-yardage and goal-line situations on the ground, even with Day's heightened emphasis on those two areas. In 2021, Ohio State ranked 102nd nationally in power success rate, which is defined as "the percentage of running plays on third or fourth down from 2 yards or less in which an offense either converted into a first down or scored a TD," with a mark of 67.3%. In 2022, the Buckeyes ranked 119th in power success rate at 62.9%. And thus far in 2023, Day's team is 126th in that category with a conversion rate of just 53.3%, though the sample size is far too small for any sweeping conclusions.

"Sometimes you've just gotta get bigger than the other guy, get stronger than the other guy, move him," Day said earlier this week when asked about his team's short-yardage struggles. "If the guys up front are moving their guys forward and the running backs are running hard, I think that's part of it. Other times, you've gotta look at maybe getting the ball on the perimeter or throwing down the field when you're just banging your head against the wall. So there's a lot of different ways to look at it. But yeah, in big games, a lot of it comes down to short yardage."

That was certainly true two weeks ago when the Buckeyes faced third-and-goal from the 1-yard line with three seconds remaining against Notre Dame. Knowing his team needed a touchdown, Day called on tailback Chip Trayanum to plunge into the end zone for the winning score.

There was nothing finesse about it. 

"The narrative around us is that we aren't tough," quarterback Kyle McCord said after beating the Irish. "So I don't know how else you're gonna draw it up."

Michael Cohen covers college football and basketball for FOX Sports with an emphasis on the Big Ten. Follow him on Twitter at @Michael_Cohen13.