Ohio State vs. Michigan: What we're expecting to see in The Game

Through the turmoil of multiple NCAA investigations and the resulting six games worth of suspensions for head coach Jim Harbaugh, Michigan still managed to get to this point undefeated. Through the challenges of breaking in a new quarterback and finding a team identity that's less reliant on a high-flying offense, Ohio State also reached this point with an unblemished record.

Now, the No. 3 Wolverines (11-0) and No. 2 Buckeyes (11-0) are set to face off for the 119th time, renewing their epic rivalry on Saturday (noon ET on FOX and the FOX Sports App).

The winner clinches a spot in the Big Ten championship game against Iowa, where it will be heavily favored to not only take the league crown but also nab a spot in the College Football Playoff.

The loser could still find a path to the CFP, but let's be honest, neither of these programs is interested in backing into anything. Not if it means losing Saturday.

How deep does the animosity go? When asked this week whether they respected their opponent, both Harbaugh and Buckeyes coach Ryan Day answered by more or less changing the subject.

So, how will things go down on Saturday?

Will the Wolverines run over the Buckeyes for a third straight season, or will Ohio State push the rivalry pendulum in the other direction?

FOX Sports college football experts Bryan Fischer, Michael Cohen, Laken Litman and RJ Young are here to break down exactly what they expect to see in The Game on Saturday.

What do you expect to see from Ohio State when the Buckeyes have the ball?

Bryan Fischer: While I would not be surprised if Ryan Day has a few things up his sleeve to scheme up some big plays early in the first half, the Ohio State offense is going to do what it's done all season: get the ball to Marvin Harrison Jr. The likely winner of the Biletnikoff Award and the favorite to be the first position player taken in the NFL Draft, the Big Ten's leading receiver has been fantastic this year despite playing with a first-time starting quarterback and dealing with a supporting cast that has been largely in and out of the lineup. Through it all, all Harrison has done is notch a receiving touchdown in seven straight games (and 31 scores in his last 25 games) and regularly top 100 yards despite everybody in the stadium knowing the ball is coming his way.

However, the Buckeyes also need to be cognizant of balance. The team that rushes for more yards has won the past 21 meetings of The Game, so TreVeyon Henderson's ability to wiggle free for some long gains will be paramount. He leads the conference in scrimmage yards and has been even better the past month since returning to the lineup healthy.

Beyond those two key playmakers, though, where the Buckeyes will really win or lose the game likely comes down to the play of QB Kyle McCord and the offensive line in front of him. The young signal-caller has been solid — 22 total touchdowns, four interceptions — but really hasn't been tested like he will be for four quarters at the Big House on Saturday. The big bodies in front of him are not as talented as they were last season, but the line has significantly improved as the year has worn on and will hope to have its best outing yet against that tough Michigan front.

This is an OSU offense that is overall not quite as prolific as previous editions under Ryan Day, but nevertheless has the ability to score on nearly every drive.

How about Michigan's offense when the Wolverines have the ball? 

Michael Cohen: There were two reasons why Michigan ran the ball 32 consecutive times to salt away an eventual 24-15 win over Penn State two weeks ago. The first was simple: Penn State's defense, which still ranks fourth nationally against the run, had no answers for the three-headed attack of Blake Corum (26 carries, 145 yards, 2 TDs); Donovan Edwards (10 carries, 52 yards, 1 TD) and J.J. McCarthy (eight carries, 34 yards). The second reason was more reactionary: When the Wolverines began the game intent on establishing a downfield passing attack, acting coach and offensive coordinator Sherrone Moore quickly realized his offensive tackles couldn't handle the speed of edge rushers Chop Robinson and Dani Dennis-Sutton, who leveled McCarthy multiple times on Michigan's first two possessions.

Concerns about the Wolverines' pass protection were amplified by an undisclosed leg injury to McCarthy and the loss of No. 1 wide receiver Roman Wilson (head/neck) during last week's win over Maryland. From the moment Wilson exited the game after absorbing a huge hit in the first quarter, Moore and McCarthy both seemed uncertain about which perimeter weapons to trust aside from tight end Colston Loveland. Wilson, who has six more touchdown receptions than any other Wolverine, seems on track to play against Ohio State this weekend, but a final decision won't be made until closer to kickoff. 

All of which is to say the game plan devised by Moore and head coach Jim Harbaugh, who is permitted to be around the team during the week, will almost certainly be built around the rushing attack that propelled Michigan to wins over Ohio State the last two years. Expect a steady diet of Corum, Edwards, McCarthy and even converted linebacker Kalel Mullings, as the Wolverines aim to control the clock and wrangle the Buckeyes into submission.

Where might Ohio State find an edge on defense?

Laken Litman: For months — or really, ever since being embarrassed by Michigan, 45-23, in The Game a year ago — Ohio State has been working on stopping big plays. That is, after all, how the Wolverines mounted their comeback in the second half last year. Ohio State led 20-17 at halftime before Michigan scored four touchdowns, three of which were on jaw-dropping explosive plays. There was the deep 45-yard touchdown bomb to Loveland in the third quarter, and then Edwards reeled off 75- and 85-yard touchdown runs to really put things out of reach in the fourth.

Buckeyes' defensive coordinator Jim Knowles has spoken this season about improving in that area — and whatever he's been doing is working. That's because through 11 games OSU has allowed just one play of 40 yards or more (best in the country) and has only allowed eight plays of 30 yards or more (third-best in the country). It helps that the defense gets to practice every day against Harrison, widely considered to be the best receiver in the nation and potentially a Heisman Trophy finalist. 

But if Michigan is anything like we've seen from the past few weeks, it's going to try and win by running the ball instead of relying on McCarthy's arm talent. Ohio State's defense has allowed just three rushing touchdowns this season, which will be an interesting battle given Michigan has scored a rushing touchdown in every game this year. Edwards is back, but Corum is Michigan's No. 1 back. He missed The Game last year with an injury, but has come back this season with a vengeance and leads the country with 20 rushing TDs.

Of course, none of this really matters until Ohio State proves it can continue its defensive dominance in the biggest game of the year. We will see how that materializes on Saturday.

And how can the Michigan defense stop the high-powered Ohio State attack?

RJ Young: Force Ohio State to hurry. You can't afford to allow explosive plays from Harrison or Henderson.

That means you're going to have to live with man coverage against players like wideout Emeka Egbuka and tight end Cade Stover.

The strength of the Michigan defense is its ability to spend as little time on the field as possible, hand the ball back to its offense, and let it eat clock with positive plays. If the Michigan defense can not only do this, but allow Ohio State to rush for fewer yards than the Wolverine offense, it can win.

The team that has outgained the other on the ground in this game has won it in each of the last 21 meetings.

Which quarterback is more important to his team, Kyle McCord or J.J. McCarthy?

Fischer: This is not to discount how good McCarthy has been this season — one of the most efficient in the country — but given the way that Michigan has so heavily leaned into the run game, I give the edge to McCord.  

In many ways, the Wolverines could be okay if, knock on wood, McCarthy were to go out for a few plays. Beating Penn State with 32 consecutive run plays reaffirms that. If McCord were to go down, the level of panic in the Buckeyes is likely to be ten-fold on their sidelines compared to the opposite number. 

That's not to say that McCord is better, because you can see the flashes out of McCarthy that will allow you to buy into Jim Harbaugh's hype regarding him at the next level. But he is a much more important cog in the machine of the OSU offense in a similar vein to his predecessors who have piled up numbers and wins in bunches.

What difference, if any, do you think it will make for Michigan to have Sherrone Moore running things as opposed to Jim Harbaugh? 

Cohen: The first question posed to Harbaugh during an abbreviated Monday news conference was about whether he has respect for Ohio State head coach Ryan Day and the rest of the Buckeyes staff. "It's all about our preparation for Ohio," Harbaugh said. "The days, the minutes, the hours, everything leading up to this game, that's where our focus is. Preparing ourselves and planning, practice, then execute. Anything else is irrelevant when you get into this kind of big game week." 

One day later, at his own weekly news conference, Day was asked if he respects Harbaugh and the rest of Michigan's assistant coaches. "With everything going on and the things that are out there," Day said, "we've just kinda stayed away from all the distractions. We have. And just focused on our team. And I think our guys have done a good job of it. I think when you talk to our guys, I've talked to them a couple times about what's gone on this season and going into The Game, but they're focused on this game. They're focused on this season. They're focused on their preparation. And we're just gonna continue that." 

In other words, no, neither coach has warm and fuzzy feelings of respect for the other given everything that has gone on between Harbaugh and Day. From the massive blowouts Day inflicted on Michigan in 2018 and 2019, to Harbaugh's comment about his counterpart being "born on third base" for inheriting the Buckeyes program from Urban Meyer. From the sign-stealing scandal that might have influenced how the Wolverines performed in back-to-back wins over Ohio State, to the message board mania that has produced still-unfounded theories about Day's involvement in the unearthing of Connor Stalions, the supposed mastermind behind the sign-stealing operation.

Michigan's players and remaining coaches have said Harbaugh's suspension is noteworthy from an emotional standpoint but far less critical from an Xs and Os perspective, given that he doesn't call plays. But what might be significant is the absence of Harbaugh's persona as it relates to Day, who is believed by some segments of the Ohio State fan base to have been rattled by his counterpart in the wake of humbling losses in 2021 and 2022. Will Day be more relaxed and less edgy now that Harbaugh's trademark hat, glasses and scowl won't be staring back at him this weekend? We'll find out soon enough.

How much pressure is on Ryan Day to win this game? Do you think it will impact how he calls the game?

Litman: Of course there is pressure on Day. That comes with the territory of being a college football coach on the cusp of playing the biggest game of the year against your rival with everything at stake. Beat Michigan and Ohio State goes to the Big Ten championship game and likely the College Football Playoff. Where there's some added stress is the fact that the Buckeyes are on a two-game losing streak to the Wolverines. And no matter how silly this sounds, there is chatter out there that Day could be on the hot seat if he loses three straight. 

But Day is widely considered to be one of the best coaches in the country. He's 56-6 at Ohio State since the 2019 season. He's 41-2 in the Big Ten, the two losses coming the last two seasons vs. Michigan. He's been to the CFP three times and was a last-second field goal away from making the national championship game last year.

Day is a pro. He wants to win this game just as much as anybody else, if not more. He's not going to change his ways or call the game differently just because he wants to win so badly. He and his staff have a plan and have their players prepared. Whether the rivalry pendulum swings this year or not, it will eventually.

If you had to pick one player to unexpectedly have a big impact on this game, who would it be?

Young: Oklahoma native Josh Proctor, who is at the end of a six-year odyssey at Ohio State and has enjoyed his best season as a Buckeye. 

He's not only the most experienced player on that defense — 20 games started — he's also the secondary's best center fielder. With 24 tackles, eight passes defended and an INT returned for a TD this year, he could come up with the game-changing defense play that gives Ohio State its first win in this rivalry since 2019. 

And saving the best for last, who will win, and why?

Fischer: For much of the season, Michigan would have been a near-automatic pick. The Wolverines are playing at home before a fervent crowd, have double-digit NFL players on the two-deep, and have showcased the ability to simply suffocate opponents with the way they play on both sides of the ball. Ohio State has earned the higher College Football Playoff ranking off the back of two notable wins and that stable of impressive game-breakers, but has played far more games close to the vest. We have this image of how the Buckeyes should beat teams and that's been absent for roughly half the year. 

Given all the distractions that have been swirling around Ann Arbor, on top of two unconvincing wins against Penn State and Maryland, it's been interesting to see the reverse course in the narrative that this game was the Wolverines to lose. It feels like the close call against the Terps, combined with the realization that Harbaugh won't be around for a sixth time on the sidelines in 2023, is leading to all the momentum favoring the scarlet and gray.

While I totally get that line of thinking, it's not the bandwagon I'm fully prepared to jump onto. Michigan's ability to run the ball, along with its superiority in the trenches, should be enough to triumph on Saturday in a close one that likely comes down to who has the ball last in the fourth quarter. Pick: Michigan.

Cohen: The overarching storyline that connects Michigan's wins over Ohio State in 2021 and 2022 with its subsequent losses to Georgia and TCU in College Football Playoff games is the idea that there are levels when it comes to dominating the trenches.

Led by Moore, who doubles as the Wolverines' offensive line coach, Michigan became the first school to win back-to-back Joe Moore Awards recognizing the best offensive line in the country. And Michigan used those lines to demolish the Buckeyes to the tune of 297 rushing yards and six rushing touchdowns in ‘21, followed by 252 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns in ‘22. Then the Wolverines' offensive lines got crushed by Georgia, which harassed quarterback Cade McNamara to such a degree that Harbaugh benched him in favor of the more mobile McCarthy, and TCU, whose 3-3-5 defense produced more than a dozen tackles for loss and shredded the Michigan rushing attack.

Again, levels. 

Which is why it might be unwise to pick Ohio State this weekend for the same reason it might be unwise to pick the Wolverines against a high-level, non-Big Ten opponent should they reach the College Football Playoff for a third straight year: It's hard to believe it until you've seen it. So until the Buckeyes prove they can match Michigan's toughness in the trenches — something they quite obviously failed at the last two seasons — the Wolverines remain the safer bet for this year's version of The Game. Pick: Michigan.

Litman: The Buckeyes have the best player on the field in Harrison. If quarterback McCord, who was a high school teammate of Harrison's, has time to throw and can get the ball to the best wideout in the country, then that could be the thing that tips the scale.

Rivalry games like this are often defined by big moments — just take last year when Michigan's Edwards ran for touchdowns of 75 and 85 yards in the fourth quarter. This year, all eyes will be on Harrison to have that Heisman moment. Pick: Ohio State.

Young: Ohio State is peaking right as it needs to. It's not just that this OSU defense is playing its best ball in four years, it's that its best ball makes it a national championship-caliber defense.

The Buckeyes allow just 9.3 points per game, haven't allowed an opponent to score more than 17, and haven't allowed an explosive play of 40 yards or more in 11 games.

And last Saturday, in the second half against Minnesota, the Ohio State offense finally looked like the one Day has been play-calling for over the last five years. Pick: Ohio State.

Bryan Fischer is a college football writer for FOX Sports. He has been covering college athletics for nearly two decades at outlets such as NBC Sports, CBS Sports, Yahoo! Sports and NFL.com among others. Follow him on Twitter at @BryanDFischer.

Michael Cohen covers college football and basketball for FOX Sports with an emphasis on the Big Ten. Follow him on Twitter at @Michael_Cohen13.

Laken Litman covers college football, college basketball and soccer for FOX Sports. She previously wrote for Sports Illustrated, USA Today and The Indianapolis Star. She is the author of "Strong Like a Woman," published in spring 2022 to mark the 50th anniversary of Title IX. Follow her on Twitter @LakenLitman.

RJ Young is a national college football writer and analyst for FOX Sports and the host of the podcast "The Number One College Football Show." Follow him on Twitter at @RJ_Young and subscribe to "The RJ Young Show" on YouTube.

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