Ohio St. proves skeptics right in loss that likely dashes playoff hopes
We're still a long way from knowing which teams reach the College Football Playoff. We do know defending champ Ohio State won't likely be one of them.
Michigan State's stunning 17-14 upset in Columbus on Saturday dramatically reshaped the 2015 playoff race. Suddenly the 10-1 Spartans, just two weeks removed from a loss at 3-6 Nebraska, control their own fate in the Big Ten East. Suddenly the 10-1 Buckeyes, who hadn't lost a regular-season conference game in four years under Urban Meyer, may be playing for second place next week at Michigan.
Suddenly 11-0 Iowa is the Big Ten's only lock to reach the playoff if it wins out.
Many had questioned Ohio State's continued Top 3 committee ranking given both its lack of quality opponents and lackluster offensive performances throughout the team's first 10 games. Those skeptics proved correct.
On a brutally cold and rainy afternoon, Michigan State's defense completely suffocated the Buckeyes, holding them to 132 total yards, the lowest output of Meyer's 14-year head-coaching career. The Buckeyes may never have scored if not for two Spartans turnovers deep in their own territory.
Most shockingly of all, two-touchdown underdog Michigan State did it without standout quarterback Connor Cook, who watched from the sideline with a shoulder injury. In his absence, a rushing attack that ranked among the worst in the country plowed for 203 yards on 51 attempts.
"We've been chased all year long," Spartans coach Mark Dantonio told ABC afterward. "This game we got to be the chaser."
The Spartans, not the Buckeyes, are now chasing their second Big Ten title in three years. They'll punch their ticket to Indianapolis with a win next week at home against 7-4 Penn State. Earlier that day, rivals Ohio State and Michigan (9-2) will tussle in Ann Arbor, with the winner then hoping the Spartans lose.
Whoever wins the East will meet the undefeated Hawkeyes in two weeks.
The Spartans, who rose from 13th to ninth in last week's committee rankings, likely will close in on the top four this week. While not a lock to make it even if they win out, they'll have an awfully strong case by beating four current Top 25 teams (8-3 Oregon, 9-2 Michigan, 10-1 Ohio State and 11-0 Iowa).
They won't likely pass No. 1 Clemson or No. 2 Alabama if both win out, but they likely will pass current No. 4 Notre Dame.
As for the Buckeyes, first they'll need to sort things out after Ezekiel Elliott's stunning postgame comments ... and then they're going to need a lot of help.
"I'm disappointed in the play-calling," Elliott said, among other things, after the loss. "I'm disappointed in the situations that we were put in, and I wish it all played out differently. ... We weren't put in the right situations to win this game."
Clearly, the Buckeyes have some issues to clear up with their star running back, whom they'll most certainly need down the stretch. Ohio State still could turn around and beat both the Wolverines and, if Michigan State loses next week, Iowa. But that would be the Buckeyes' only Top 25 wins all season. And they'd still have a home loss to a team playing with its backup quarterback.
Ohio State's more pressing concern is how to beat Michigan with such an inept passing game. It turns out that replacing Cardale Jones with J.T. Barrett was not a magic elixir. For reasons still puzzling, Urban Meyer's offense has never recaptured the lethal efficiency of its 2014 postseason run.
On Saturday, the Buckeyes finally met an opponent good enough to exploit that. And another one awaits next week in Ann Arbor.
Stewart Mandel is a senior college sports columnist for FOXSports.com. He covered college football and basketball for 15 years at Sports Illustrated. You can follow him on Twitter @slmandel and Facebook. Send emails and Mailbag questions to Stewart.Mandel@fox.com.