Notre Dame vs. USC: Prediction, odds, picks

The No. 21 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (5-2) take the No.15 scoring defense in college football into a matchup with the No. 10 USC Trojans (6-0), who have the No. 1 scoring offense, on Saturday, October 14. The Fighting Irish are 2.5-point favorites. 

In their last action, the Fighting Irish lost against the Louisville Cardinals, 33-20. In their most recent contest, the Trojans won against the Arizona Wildcats, 43-41.

Here's everything you need to know about for the matchup between USC and Notre Dame — the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and a pick from our betting analyst Geoff Schwartz. 

Notre Dame vs. USC Game Information & Odds

• When: Saturday, October 14, 2023 at 7:30 PM ET
• Location: Notre Dame Stadium in South Bend, Indiana
• TV: NBC
• Live boxscore on FOX Sports

Notre Dame vs. USC Prediction

• Pick ATS: Notre Dame (-2.5)  
• Pick OU: Over (60) 
• Prediction: Notre Dame 36, USC 28

Pick via FOX Sports Betting Analyst Geoff Schwartz

USC has played three straight clunkers, and it’s going to cost them on Saturday. 

Expectations for USC this season were winning a conference title and a College Football Playoff berth, if their defense was going to improve. Through six games, the USC defense appears to be exactly what it was last season. It is 73rd in points per drive on defense, with a tackle success rate of 115th. The USC defense allowed 28 points to Arizona State three weekends ago in a 42-28 win. That was the most points the Sun Devils had scored all season. The following weekend, USC allowed 41 points to Colorado after Oregon only allowed six to the Buffaloes in their previous game. Last weekend saw USC beat Arizona 43-41 in overtime. 

While Notre Dame’s offense has seen its struggles, it doesn’t appear any offense has trouble with the USC defense. This is absolutely a get-right game for the Irish offense, which is 24th in points per drive. The Irish offense has played three straight teams sitting in the top 20 of SP+ on defense, and now it gets USC. I think concerns about the Irish offense will subside after this game.

USC’s offense is led by the best player in the sport, reigning Heisman-winning quarterback Caleb Williams. While USC’s offensive numbers are fantastic, the offense just seems out of sorts recently. It put up 48 against Colorado, but didn’t score in the final 17 minutes. It scored only 28 points in regulation against Arizona. Williams has the highest average time to throw of any Power 5 quarterback, but it’s a bunch of Williams making special plays behind the line of scrimmage. USC running back MarShawn Lloyd is fantastic and should be part of the offense more often. He’s averaging 7.7 yards per attempt. The Irish defense is ranked is 24th in points per game and 17th in explosive play rate. It is a physical group that held down the Ohio State and Duke offense in back to back weekends. Yes, ND's defense struggled at Louisville, but that game felt inevitable after two straight games that went to the wire.

This is the game where USC’s clunkers finally cost them. The Trojans can not have performances like we’ve seen over the last three weeks and beat an Irish team that’s talented and physical, with a veteran quarterback. I have the Irish covering and winning. 

Notre Dame vs. USC Betting Insights

• Based on the spread and over/under, the implied score for the matchup is Fighting Irish 31, Trojans 29.
• The Fighting Irish have a 58.3% chance to collect the win in this meeting per the moneyline's implied probability. The Trojans hold a 45.9% implied probability.
• Notre Dame has put together a 4-2-1 record against the spread this season.
• USC has won two games against the spread this season.

Notre Dame vs. USC: Head-to-Head

• In their past two matchups, USC owns a split 1-1 record against Notre Dame.
• The Fighting Irish and the Trojans have been an even matchup over their last two meetings, holding a split 1-1 record against the spread. In those two games, the two teams have gone over the total on one occasion.
• In their last two head-to-head matchups, Notre Dame has tallied 58 points against USC, while allowing only 54 points.

Notre Dame vs. USC: 2023 Stats Comparison

Notre Dame 2023 Key Players

USC 2023 Key Players