NFL Draft 2017: Why Reuben Foster will drop after failed drug test

Dec 31, 2016; Atlanta, GA, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide linebacker Reuben Foster (10) during warm-ups before the 2016 CFP Semifinal against the Washington Huskies at the Georgia Dome. Alabama football defeated Washington 24-7. Mandatory Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports

Following a failed drug test, there are reasons to believe Alabama football's Reuben Foster will free-fall come 2017 NFL Draft night. Here's why.

The 2017 NFL Draft process has been a roller coaster for Reuben Foster. As a player, he is projected to be a top ten pick. However, add in his medical concerns and off-field issues and Foster may find himself free falling come draft night.

Que Tom Petty:

Foster is not the only Alabama player who is having a rough draft process. Jonathan Allen has medical concerns. Cam Robinson was arrested prior to the season. Tim Williams was also arrested prior to the start of the season. Maybe it is in the water, but high end draft prospects out of Alabama (with O.J. Howard as a notable exception) have the potential to free fall next week.

At the beginning of the draft process Reuben Foster was a lock to go in the top ten. Most experts predicted Foster would go ninth overall to the Cincinnati Bengals who have a need at linebacker and edge rusher. However, as the draft process has unfolded, issues with Foster began to surface. At first, it was only medical concerns. Quickly those concerns expanded to off-field red flags.

The latest for Reuben Foster comes with announcement that he had a diluted sample at the Combine. Per the NFL collective bargaining agreement, a diluted sample is considered a failed drug test. A failed drug test puts Foster in the Substances of Abuse program heading into the draft.

Not a good way to start one's NFL career. Just ask Josh Gordon.

But will Foster's failed drug test cause him to free fall in the draft?

Jan 9, 2017; Tampa, FL, USA; Clemson Tigers wide receiver Mike Williams (7) runs the ball as Alabama Crimson Tide linebacker Reuben Foster (10) defends during the second quarter in the 2017 College Football Playoff National Championship Game at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

4. Reuben Foster's scouting report

If teams only focused on on-field performance, Reuben Foster is an easy top 10 pick. His violent, hardnosed style of play is a perfect fit for a division like the AFC North who likes to play a physical intimidating style of play. He is a tone setting player who brings an attitude of dominance every time he steps on the field.

Per Lance Zierlein's NFL.com scouting report

Alpha mentality with ferocious hitting style that puts offensive skill positions on alert. Outstanding athlete with springy, reactive feet. Lost 15 pounds in off-season, which gave him more speed and explosiveness. Loose hips and long stride allows him to open and chase immediately. Has elite sideline-to-sideline range. Tough as nails. Brings swagger to a linebacking corps. Never passive and always means it. Willing to take his shots downhill and into gaps. Lands strong warning blows on climbing guards early in the game. Coverage ability is an asset. Logged 10 passes defensed in 2015. Can carry long speed against running backs on wheel routes and nine routes. Has worked to improve tackling technique, which has yielded higher success rate of finishes.

He uses his athleticism to overcome his lack of instincts on the field. He needs to improve on technique when taking on blockers to keep himself healthy.

Instincts are just average. Overly reliant on speed and athleticism over instincts and feel. Can be a tick slow to respond to play-action. Inconsistent defeating blocks. Too eager to take on everyone at the point of attack. Gets shoulder covered up firing into incoming blockers. Needs to improve stack and shed technique to keep himself clean. Will drop his head at times as tackler. Poor tackling technique led to "stinger" issues early in his career.

Overall Zierlein argues that Foster is a first-round pick with the potential to be All-Pro. He fits as a 3-4 inside linebacker and a 4-3 weakside linebacker.

But injuries are a major concern for Foster. He has already had two reported concussions at Alabama. He had surgery during the draft process to address a partially torn rotator cuff.

These medical issues would give teams a reason to take a second look on Foster. But the real issues causing a potential free fall are the off-field concerns.

Jan 7, 2017; Tampa, FL, USA; Alabama Football linebacker Reuben Foster (10) during the Alabama Crimson Tide media day at Amalie Arena. Mandatory Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports

3. More than just a positive test?

There have been off the field concerns about Reuben Foster since the beginning. But none of them were significant enough to warrant a red-flag in the draft process. However, a lot of small things can add up to become a major concern.

One of the off-field concerns center around his childhood friends. Teams are concerned that his friend structure may lead to more off field concerns. Foster has tried to alleviate those concerns, according to NFL.com.

"I came from a rough environment, I'm my own man. Growing up, those were the people from my neighborhood. At college, my teammates became my family."

Teams understand that players cannot control how they grew up but only how they can live now. Still the background does concern some teams.

The first major issue for Foster came at the NFL Scouting Combine. While waiting his turn for medical checks, Foster reportedly got into an altercation with a "student medical worker". He objected to the way he was being treated. Foster was sent home from the Combine.

Teams will do their due diligence. Even NFL.com draft analyst Mike Mayock did not seem to think it will affect his draft status. Per an NFL.com report he stated:

"Unless it becomes more than what we've heard, I don't think it's really going to impact him."

Most teams seem to agree that the Combine incident would not affect his draft status.

Then the news of the failed drug test came out.

Foster did the right thing by trying to get ahead of the story. He began calling NFL teams to tell them the news himself and explain what happened. He decided he needed to break the news because

This is something that's going to get out. I don't make excuses. I'm a real dude. I try to be a good person. … I just hope the coaches understand and that's all I can hope and pray for.

Foster explains that the failed test was due to food poisoning.

"I couldn't eat much, but I had to drink water and Gatorade," said Foster, who began the process as the consensus top linebacker based on his game tape and measurables. "Then a few coaches said something about me being too light. And I'm a coach-pleaser. I don't care what everybody thinks, but I care what coaches think. So I drank and ate as much as I could without throwing up. Then I went in there, drinking and drinking water, trying to flush out my system from whatever was making me sick and trying to keep my weight up and took the test."

Foster will enter the season in the Substances of Abuse program but that does not seem to phase him much. "Put me in the program," he said. "Test me."

All taken on their own, these incidents could be dismissed. But when they come in a conglomerate like this, they begin to take their toll. Teams become leery of guys with multiple medical and off-field concerns.

But will all of this affect his draft status? The experts are divided on when answering this question.

Dec 31, 2016; Atlanta, GA, USA; Washington Huskies running back Myles Gaskin (9) is stopped by Alabama Crimson Tide linebacker Reuben Foster (10) during the first quarter in the 2016 CFP Semifinal at the Georgia Dome. Mandatory Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports

2. Does talent trump off-field issues?

There are some in the scouting and draftnik community that think Reuben Foster will still be a top 10 pick even after all his issues this draft season.

One expert is Mike Mayock of NFL.com.

In a recent conference call Mayock stated his belief that neither the Combine incident nor the failed drug test will affect his NFL Draft status.

"There are some red flags there," Mayock said on a conference call. "I think the combine incident has been wiped clean by almost every team. I think that was way overdone and the kid should not have been sent home. That's my opinion and most people in the league believe that.

"As far as the diluted sample at the combine, that's always really disappointing and has to be taken into consideration. I think the shoulder is apparently going to be OK from a re-check perspective, I don't see him sliding all that far. I think he's a top-20 pick all day long in any draft. Could he have been a top-10 pick? He still might be a top-10 pick."

One thing is always true in the NFL, talent trumps off-field issues.

Mayock is not alone in thinking Foster will be just fine come draft night. NFL.com Media Analyst Charlie Casserly believes that if Foster handles this correctly, his draft status will remain unaffected by his diluted sample/failed drug test.

Based on what I know of Foster — and granted, while I know him as a football player, I'm not extremely familiar with him on a personal level — this initially seems like the kind of thing that's a one-time incident. He doesn't have a history of misbehavior that I know of. So if he's open and honest with team brass about what went down — and gives a compelling explanation of why it won't happen again — this shouldn't affect his NFL draft stock. The worst thing a player can do is get caught in a lie. You've already made one mistake — don't make a second. Just admit it and move on — NFL teams will follow suit.

While these experts think his stock won't be affected, just take a look at how far Laremy Tunsil fell last year.

Jan 11, 2016; Glendale, AZ, USA; Clemson Tigers quarterback Deshaun Watson (4) gets away from Alabama Crimson Tide linebacker Reuben Foster (10) during the third quarter in the 2016 CFP National Championship at University of Phoenix Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports

1. Experts are predicting a fall

Tony Pauline of DraftAnalyst.com thinks Rueben Foster's draft status has suffered significantly because of his failed drug test. Teams are already concerned about medical and other off-field concerns, the failed drug test is the proverbial straw that broke the camel's back.

When discussing Foster he states:

Reuben Foster has dropped dramatically. The news of his failed/diluted drug test from yesterday was the icing on the cake. One team was ready to take him in the middle of Round 1 but has backed off. I'm told it's a combination of what's described as "horrible behavior" as well as concussion issues.

Tony Pauline is correct, Reuben Foster will free fall come NFL Draft night. There are a couple of very good reasons for this to occur. With one good reason why he will not.

The only way he does not fall on draft night is if the Cincinnati Bengals take him ninth overall. The Bengals have a track record of finding value in players with off-field concerns. Vontaze Burfict and Adam Jones are just two examples of players who have thrived in Cincinnati. Foster is a perfect fit for the defense where linebacker is a need.

But if the Bengals pass, Foster may look like Aaron Rogers sitting in the Green Room come draft night.

Obviously the medical and off-field concerns are the primary reason why Reuben Foster will free-fall.

But the rise of other talented linebackers will contribute to that fall as well. Per Rob Rang of NFLDraftScout.com:

Linebackers Haason Reddick (Temple), Jarrad Davis (Florida), Zach Cunningham (Vanderbilt) and Tyus Bowser (Houston) have generated plenty of positive buzz with recent workouts.

This may be cause and effect. They may be rising because teams are looking for an alternative to Foster. Or their rise may be causing Foster to fall down the boards given Foster's concerns. Either way, Foster is falling and others are rising.

Why draft Foster and all of his concerns when other linebackers who may not be as good but are clean medically with no off field concerns are available?

Foster will have a long wait on draft night. Like Tom Petty, Foster is free falling.