Navy at Air Force: Prediction, Odds, Expert Pick
The Navy Midshipmen (4-0) are 9.5-point favorites heading into their matchup on Saturday, October 5, 2024 against the Air Force Falcons (1-3). The over/under is 37 for this matchup.
The Midshipmen beat the UAB Blazers, 41-18, in their most recent game. Last time out, the Falcons fell to the Wyoming Cowboys, with 31-19 being the final score.
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Danny Parkins makes his predictions for Week 5 of the NFL Season, including the Chicago Bears over the Carolina Panthers, the Indianapolis Colts over the Jacksonville Jaguars, and the San Francisco 49ers over the Arizona Cardinals.
Navy vs. Air Force Game Information & Odds
- When: Saturday, October 5, 2024 at 12:00 p.m. ET
- Location: Falcon Stadium in Colorado Springs, Colorado
- TV: CBS
- Live Box Score on FOX Sports
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| Favorite | Spread (Odds) | Favorite Moneyline | Underdog Moneyline | Total | Over Moneyline | Under Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Navy | -9.5 (-114) | -375 | +288 | 37 | -109 | -111 |
Navy vs. Air Force Prediction
- Pick ATS: Navy (-9.5)
- Pick OU: Over (37)
- Prediction: Navy 37, Air Force 16
Predictions are made by the Data Skrive betting model.
Learn more about the Navy Midshipmen vs. the Air Force Falcons game on FOX Sports!
Pick by FOX Sports Betting Analyst Geoff Schwartz:
Navy is excellent this season and on pace for 10 wins.
The Midshipmen rank 10th in the sport in net yards per play, while being fourth in points per drive. They’ve somewhat moved away from their traditional offense of running, running and running some more. Instead, they're throwing the ball a little more this season.
They already have 44 pass attempts this year, and Horvath has completed 30 of them. Navy is a good squad and it's playing a bad Air Force team. And calling Air Force bad might be being too nice.
The Falcons are 0-4 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS), failing to cover the spread against FBS teams by 13 points. Air Force is 129th in points per drive on offense and not much better on defense.
I like Navy to win and cover this game.
PICK: Navy (-10) to win by more than 10 points
Navy vs. Air Force Betting Insights
- Per the spread and over/under, the implied score for the matchup is Midshipmen 23, Falcons 14.
- The Midshipmen have a 78.9% chance to collect the win in this contest per the moneyline's implied probability. The Falcons hold a 25.8% implied probability.
- Navy has put together a 3-1-0 ATS record so far this year.
- Air Force has compiled a 0-4-0 record against the spread this year.
Navy vs. Air Force: Head-to-Head
- Over their last three meetings, Air Force has collected three wins against Navy.
- The Midshipmen and the Falcons have been an even matchup over their last three contests, holding a split 1-1-1 record against the spread. In those three head-to-head matchups, the two squads have never gone over the total.
- Over their last three head-to-head matchups, Air Force has scored 53 points, while Navy has posted 19.
Navy vs. Air Force: 2024 Stats Comparison
| Navy | Air Force | |
|---|---|---|
| Off. Points per Game (Rank) | 46 (19) | 12.5 (132) |
| Def. Points per Game (Rank) | 23.5 (51) | 21.3 (39) |
| Turnovers Allowed (Rank) | 2 (5) | 5 (43) |
| Turnovers Forced (Rank) | 8 (32) | 7 (42) |
Navy 2024 Key Players
| Name | Position | Stats |
|---|---|---|
| Blake Horvath | QB | 637 YDS (68.2%) / 7 TD / 1 INT 450 RUSH YDS / 8 RUSH TD / 112.5 RUSH YPG |
| Eli Heidenreich | RB | 72 YDS / 0 TD / 18 YPG / 5.1 YPC 15 REC / 348 REC YDS / 5 REC TD / 87 REC YPG |
| Brandon Chatman | RB | 125 YDS / 1 TD / 31.3 YPG / 5.7 YPC 6 REC / 132 REC YDS / 2 REC TD / 33 REC YPG |
| Alex Tecza | RB | 212 YDS / 3 TD / 53 YPG / 6.1 YPC |
| Colin Ramos | LB | 42 TKL / 2 TFL / 1 SACK |
| Jaxson Campbell | DB | 25 TKL / 1 TFL / 0.5 SACK / 1 INT |
| Luke Pirris | DL | 18 TKL / 2 TFL / 1.5 SACK |
| Justin Reed | DL | 8 TKL / 3 TFL / 3 SACK |
Air Force 2024 Key Players
| Name | Position | Stats |
|---|---|---|
| Cade Harris | WR | 8 REC / 119 YDS / 0 TD / 29.8 YPG |
| Aiden Calvert | RB | 91 YDS / 2 TD / 22.8 YPG / 5.1 YPC |
| John Busha | QB | 240 YDS (36.5%) / 0 TD / 2 INT 128 RUSH YDS / 0 RUSH TD / 32 RUSH YPG |
| Kade Frew | RB | 56 YDS / 1 TD / 14 YPG / 6.2 YPC |
| Peyton Zdroik | DL | 11 TKL / 3 TFL / 3 SACK |
| Jamari Bellamy | DB | 19 TKL / 3 TFL |
| Grant Uyl | LB | 17 TKL / 1 TFL |
| Kyle Chen | DB | 12 TKL / 1 TFL |
FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.
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