Mississippi State's Running Back Problem

Mississippi State has a problem at running back, so let’s take a look at what’s going on.

Historically, when you think of an area that Mississippi State excels, it would be running the football. Whether you go back to the wishbone days of Emory Bellard or you talk about the number of successful tailbacks under Jackie Sherrill or 1,000 yard backs for Dan Mullen.

Even Slyvester Croom featured Jerious Norwood and Anthony Dixon who both left the school as the all-time leading rusher.

State has always been able to run the ball. When Dan Mullen took over he continued that tradition with Dixon’s phenomenal 2009 campaign, then on to Vick Ballard, LaDarius Perkins and Josh Robinson.

But over the last two years the Bulldogs have struggled to run the football, primarily from the running back position. Let’s take a quick look at the RB production under Coach Mullen (these stats do not include rushing yards from the quarterback, obviously):

That is a substantial drop-off the last two years.

Without a doubt you can point some of the blame to the offensive line. They have not been as good the as they were in year’s past as they continue to miss blocks or get beat, allowing the RB to get hit in the backfield. Guys like Dillon Day, Gabe Jackson, Ben Beckwith and other road graders have graduated and this new crop hasn’t excelled like they did.

But you can’t put all the blame on the O-line, or even most of it. Game after game we see the same recurring problems, and 2016’s issues appear even worse than 2015 despite more experience at running back.

Sep 3, 2016; Starkville, MS, USA; Mississippi State Bulldogs running back Brandon Holloway (10) runs the ball during the second quarter of the game against the South Alabama Jaguars at Davis Wade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Bush-USA TODAY Sports

Right now, Brandon Holloway is the team’s leading rusher from the running back position with 111 yards on 31 carries (3.6 YPC). Three games in – the leader at tailback has 111 yards.

Now, you’d expect a 5′-8″ 165 pound tailback who hasn’t broken one for a long run to be at 111 yards through three games. The trouble is, Dan Mullen is using Holloway as his feature back.

Here’s an example of a Holloway run…

How about another….

More times than not, he runs up the middle. About one third of the time he’ll run to the outside and in those cases he will pick up 5-8 yards. But his overall average is horrible because he’s lucky to get two yards running between the tackles.

Coach Mullen believes his starting tailback should run all the plays a starting tailback runs in his offense. And for some reason, he believes a 165 pound back should be the starter.

Not only is it a head-scratcher that he wants to start a 165 pound RB in the SEC, but he believes Holloway should run all the plays every other RB on the team should run. He’s making no consideration for his skill set.

Sep 17, 2016; Baton Rouge, LA, USA; Mississippi State Bulldogs head coach Dan Mullen during the second half of a game against the LSU Tigers at Tiger Stadium. LSU defeated Mississippi State 23-20. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

Personnel decisions have been been a huge issue with the running backs.

Here’s an example…

Against South Carolina, Mullen called two between the tackle runs with Holloway in goal to go situations from inside the five yard line. The first down play lost a yard. Now here’s the video of the 3rd down play….

There’s no doubt the defensive player got to him quickly – but that’s what happens in goal line situations. And since Holloway goes down on first contact there’s not much chance of him making it into the endzone. Even with poor blocking up front, you should still be able to score with the right back in the game.

You could make an argument that Brandon Holloway should get the ball occasionally to run up the middle because if he finds a seam he could easily gain 10 yards before being touched. But at the goal line there is no argument that could be made. You only need a couple of yards, so you put in your 235 pound bruiser (Ashton Shumpert) to put his head down and push into the endzone.

In all of his carries during his MSU career – which I’ve seen every single one at least three times – I believe Holloway has broken one tackle. He’s strong for his size, but he’s going against guys who are 250-300 pounds and they are strong for their size.

There’s a time to put in your scat back. There’s a time to put in your bruiser. There’s a time to put in your all-purpose back. So on and so forth.

Sep 3, 2016; Starkville, MS, USA; Mississippi State Bulldogs wide receiver Fred Ross (8) and linebacker J.T. Gray (12) talk with head coach Dan Mullen during the second quarter of the game at Davis Wade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Bush-USA TODAY Sports

No one can get into a rhythm.

A good tailback gets better as the game goes on. If you pound the defense with big tailbacks (which MSU has five that are all over 210 pounds) then by the 4th quarter the defensive line and linebackers are tired of tackling those guys. That’s when they start to shine and gain big chunks of yardage.

You may try to hit a hole in the 1st quarter that collapses after you’ve only gained two yards. In the 3rd quarter you’re able to break that tackle and gain five yards. In the 4th quarter you blow past the defensive end and gain 10 yards.

If Ashton Shumpert or Aeris Williams got 10 carries in a game it would be breaking news. Both of those guys have been second and third string behind Holloway since the beginning of 2015. In those 16 games, the only time one of them got at least 10 carries was Shumpert vs. LSU in ’15 when he got exactly 10.

How are we ever going to see if Shump or Williams can break out and become a really good tailback when they aren’t given any type of work load?

Sep 3, 2016; Starkville, MS, USA; Mississippi State Bulldogs running back Ashton Shumpert (32) runs the ball during the second quarter of the game against the South Alabama Jaguars at Davis Wade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Bush-USA TODAY Sports

Watch Shump run between the tackles vs. LSU:

Ashton Shumpert’s career has been pretty disappointing to be honest. He was a four-star recruit and we were all expecting big things. Then his redshirt was quickly taken off in 2013 so we assumed he’d be poised for a breakout season in 2015 after Josh Robinson left.

Unfortunately it hasn’t happened. While I think he should be getting more carries, there’s no doubt he appears a step slow to be a really good SEC running back. But that doesn’t mean he can’t be a good one.

Shump should be getting 8-12 carries per game, especially at the goal line and short yardage situations. He is a big back who can move the pile.

And I’d like to see him in the game more as a blocking full back / H-back. He should be serving a much larger role in this offense.

Where are Dontavian Lee, Nick Gibson and Alec Murphy?

MSU currently has six running backs who are not redshirting. But only three are playing.

Dontavian Lee gained 137 yards on a 6.2 YPC average as a redshirt freshman in 2015, but he hasn’t seen the field yet in 2016. Nick Gibson and Alec Murphy are redshirt freshman this year but have yet to touch the field of play.

Oct 10, 2015; Starkville, MS, USA; Mississippi State Bulldogs running back Dontavian Lee (33) runs the ball during the game against the Troy Trojans at Davis Wade Stadium. Mississippi State won 17 – 45. Mandatory Credit: Matt Bush-USA TODAY Sports

The only thing I can figure is they aren’t ready. Dan Mullen has said on numerous occasions that if you aren’t ready to play (you know your assignments, blocking, playbook, etc) then you don’t play. So, do these three not know what they’re supposed to do?

If these running backs are not prepared enough to get on the field, that falls on Greg Knox. They should be ready to play – they’ve all been on campus at least a year and in Lee and Williams case this is their third year.

If it’s not Knox’s fault then it’s the player – and if you can’t get it by your third year you shouldn’t be on scholarship anymore.

I’ve got serious doubts about Knox right now. Shumpert, Williams and Gibson are all four-star tailbacks out of high school. Everyone but Holloway is over 210 pounds, yet 165 pound Holloway is getting the lion’s share of the carries. It may be Dan Mullen’s final decision on who starts, but he’s not an idiot despite my complaints – there’s got to be a legitimate reason why Holloway has emerged over the other five.

Nov 5, 2015; Columbia, MO, USA; Mississippi State Bulldogs running back Aeris Williams (27) runs the ball against the Missouri Tigers during the second half at Faurot Field. Mississippi State defeated Missouri 31-13. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

My solution: give Aeris Williams the bulk of the carries, get all the running backs more involved and pound the football all game long.

MSU has a running back problem for all the reasons I’ve listed, but they don’t have a talent problem.

State was 7% on third down conversions against LSU and are currently 123rd in the country in that category at 24% for the year. I see a direct correlation between converting on third down and running the football.

One – if it’s 3rd and 1 or 2 and you can’t run the ball it’s much harder to pick up. But with a back like Shumpert that shouldn’t really be a problem even if the O-line doesn’t get much of a push.

Two – effective running on first or second down can set up third and manageable. We aren’t going to get very far if either of our QBs are trying to convert a 3rd and 10.

Mullen has been focused on a 50/50 run/pass balance for several years now. So far this year he’s at 54/46. He needs to get back to his 2010 ways when State ran on at least 67% of its plays in 7 of 8 SEC games. The Dawgs were able to convert on 46% of third downs that year and churned up a lot of clock.

I hope we can soon see Lee again as well as the debuts of Gibson and Murphy.

Running the football has always been MSU’s bread and butter – it’s where this offense needs to find its identity and that will lead to more success down the road.

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