Mandel's Mailbag: Why Ole Miss may not have SEC West in the bag
It's always fun to look back at preseason predictions I got ridiculously wrong in a given year. Ideally, though, I wouldn't be in position to do it after just three weeks. Looking back at my predicted SEC West standings, I believe we can say with relative certainty that unless new starting quarterback Sean White is a messiah, Auburn will not get to 10-2, nor is LSU going to finish 7-5 (and not just because it's playing only 11 games.)
But the one I'm really kicking myself about is Ole Miss at 8-4.
Will Ole Miss be able to take the SEC West? Or will it go to LSU or Texas A&M?
—Jacob Garza, Dallas
First of all, if anyone tells you they know who's going to win the SEC West, check to see if they own a DeLorean. If not, politely laugh, pretend you just got an important text and keep walking. Secondly, it'd be short-sighted to write off Alabama, though I believe the Tide will lose at least once more and must hope that everyone else does, too.
I picked Texas A&M before the season, and fewer people are laughing at me now than they were then, but even I'd concede we don't have a great read yet on the Aggies. That Arizona State offense that Myles Garrett and Co. shut down in Week 1 did not fare much better in Weeks 2 and 3. However, the main reason I picked the Aggies in the preseason remains true today: They have the most favorable schedule of anyone in the division. Case in point, I went in assuming this week's game against Arkansas would be one of its toughest. Now, Kliff Kingsbury assures us that A&M will kick Bret Bielema's . . .
Meanwhile, LSU has exceeded my expectations thus far, but again, I'd temper that since the Auburn team it destroyed last weekend is a hot mess. Les Miles clearly plans to ride Leonard Fournette and his other running backs and use Brandon Harris only when absolutely necessary. The Tigers will eventually play a game where Harris needs to win it for them, but it likely won't be until early November.
As for Ole Miss . . . I should have known better. The Rebels were better than their 9-4 record and bowl implosion last season (in fact, they boasted the nation's top defense the first two-thirds of the year). And this is the season Hugh Freeze has been building toward, when the core of his loaded 2013 recruiting class (DT Robert Nkemdiche, WR Laquon Treadwell, TE Evan Engram) would be juniors. I held back due to lack of faith in transfer QB Chad Kelly. While far from perfect against Alabama (18 of 33, 341 yards, three TDs, 0 INTs), he made some incredible throws and is unquestionably an upgrade from Bo Wallace.
I'm going to continue to ride A&M for now, but the Rebels are legit.
Stewart, all of the talk about Ohio State's offensive problems has centered on the QBs and the offensive line. I think the real problem is the receivers. The Buckeyes lost Devin Smith (the deep threat), Evan Spencer (whom Urban Meyer called the MVP of last year's team), tight end Jeff Heuerman (third-round draft pick) and expected starter Noah Brown (broken leg). Besides Michael Thomas, the current receivers are mostly H-backs that are not necessarily running NFL routes. What do you think?
— Nick, Charlotte, N.C.
I think you're on to something, so much so that I asked Urban Meyer a version of this very question on Tuesday's Big Ten teleconference. He replied in part: "You're absolutely right. They have not performed well." Keep in mind, that position group was one of his biggest concerns coming out of the spring — along with defensive tackle and offensive line depth — and clearly it has not yet been assuaged. I'm as guilty as anyone of getting caught up in Braxton Miller's highlights against Virginia Tech and mistaking that to think he'd automatically do that every week. I'm sure Miller will continue to produce big plays in spurts, but as of today Thomas is the only surefire every-week receiver.
But I'd still contend that none of this would even be a story if the Buckeyes' veteran offensive line performed like you'd expect it to against Northern Illinois. Simply put, NIU mostly won the line of scrimmage in that game, with Ohio State players saying afterward they were caught off guard by the Huskies' three-man front.
The good news for Buckeyes fans is, that's a fixable issue. Much the same thing happened in last year's Virginia Tech loss. The coaches learned from it, corrected it and that unit was dominant by year's end. If that happens this season, you'll see Ezekiel Elliott go back to being a big-chunk running back, which in turn puts the quarterbacks in better down-and-distance situations, which in turn negates the need for an overpowering downfield passing game. Much like last year, I'm guessing OSU's offense will soon return to regularly putting up 40-plus points, but against overmatched opponents, so that we won't truly know whether its issues are fixed until the Buckeyes face Michigan State on Nov. 21.
Stewart, I'm a big fan of the Mailbag. How could Charlie Strong, Shawn Watson, et. al. be SO WRONG about Tyrone Swoopes/Jerrod Heard? Heard has come in and been an immediate game changer. Doesn't their inability to recognize the talent gap suggest that perhaps the Texas job is too big for them? This is not a marginal difference.
— Nathan Crowell, Houston
It's not the first time we've seen one quarterback replace another and immediately wondered why there was ever a decision to be made in the first place. But of course, we're not the ones watching them in practice every day. For instance, it seems ludicrous now that Jameis Winston and Jake Coker were involved in a legitimate competition at Florida State leading up to the 2013 season, but Winston was a redshirt freshman, Coker a year older, and it's not hard to imagine Winston looking like the obvious better talent but making Fisher nervous with his immaturity.
And of course, it's impossible to replicate an actual game in practice. Some guys far exceed what the coaches expected once the lights come on (see Johnny Manziel), while others do the opposite (see Jeremy Johnson).
In Texas' case, there clearly was some staff dysfunction at play here. Strong felt loyalty to Watson, his OC at Louisville with Teddy Bridgewater, and trusted his judgment. But Watson is a pro-style guy who prefers a true drop-back quarterback. Strong made it clear over the offseason he wanted to move toward more of a true shotgun-spread, in which Heard would clearly seem the better fit, but Watson either wasn't on board or didn't feel comfortable enough with Heard. I find it hard to believe he would have intentionally kept the better QB on the bench. Whatever the case, the Week 1 debacle gave Strong a mandate to make the changes that he did, and they're already paying off.
(An alternative conspiracy theory floating around: Strong knew Texas had no shot against Notre Dame, so he served up Swoopes as a sacrificial lamb rather than letting Heard endure a confidence-shattering debut. I don't buy it, but maybe you do.)
Stewart — No chance my Buckeyes are left out of a playoff if they are undefeated, right?? Right??
— Brian Cayne, Solon, Ohio
That's really what you're most worried about with Ohio State right now?
Hey Stewart: I'm a longtime Mailbag reader, but this is the first time I've been compelled to write. Like you, I started this season optimistic about my undergraduate alma mater, Auburn. But, since that's no longer looking so good, I've turned to my grad school, Northwestern. For three games now, the Wildcats have had a stout defense. They've got a quality win over Stanford and a win on the road at Duke. Given that they miss Ohio State and Michigan State from the East, I think it's possible they'll be representing the West in Indianapolis. Care to convince me otherwise?
— Andrew Whatley, Chicago
In the annals of college football history, is this the first time an Auburn fan has ever turned toward Northwestern in hopes of enjoying a better season?
Before the season I picked the Wildcats to lose both of those tough non-conference games but to finish 5-3 in the Big Ten, because frankly Stanford and Duke looked like tougher draws than most teams in their division. Now, after those victories, many Northwestern fans — terminally conditioned to temper their optimism — are starting to set their sights on a bigger prize. And it's certainly realistic.
Put it this way: Is there another team in the West you'd feel confident saying right now is definitely better than Northwestern? Perhaps this will be one of those years where Iowa surprises everyone. The Hawkeyes, like the Wildcats, already boast two wins over Power 5 foes (Iowa State and Pitt). But Wisconsin and Nebraska don't look as formidable as in years past. Minnesota, which put up a decent fight against TCU, has since sweated out Colorado State (23-20 in overtime) and Kent State (10-7). Illinois and Purdue are Illinois and Purdue.
As for Pat Fitzgerald's team, you can win a lot of games with a strong running game, dominant defense and great special teams. Led by speedy tailback Justin Jackson, the 'Cats rank 12th nationally in rushing at 256.7 yards per game; the defense leads the country in points allowed (5.3 per game); and a kick return touchdown swung the Duke game. But at some point, redshirt freshman quarterback Clayton Thorson will have to win a game with his arm. His 93.3 efficiency rating so far does not crack the Top 100 nationally.
Considering its current troubles, how lucky do you think Ohio State is considering to not have drawn Northwestern this year on its schedule?
— Lyle Saunders, Stockbridge, Ga.
That's another way of looking at it.
What must Bret Bielema be thinking right now after the comments from Kliff Kingsbury? I bet Barry Alvarez must be secretly smiling. If the Razorbacks don't turn it around soon for a successful season, is Bielema on the hot seat? What would define a successful season at this point?
— Kelly PorkBelly Lockridge, Samrong, Samut Prakan, Thailand
So . . . is PorkBelly your middle name?
Bielema is Bielema. He's unabashedly cocky, and depending on how his team's doing at the time, he either gets celebrated or lampooned for it. When his Wisconsin teams were winning three straight Big Ten championships, he'd call the Badgers' smashmouth style "Real American Football" and everyone yucked it up. When he went 0-8 in the SEC his first season, then subsequently tried to outlaw the hurry-up offense, we excoriated him. After Arkansas drubbed Texas in its bowl game last season, he promptly stole the show at SEC Media Days, calling the performance "borderline erotic." Now, he's losing again, so calling out another team's schedule and/or the entire state of Texas' high school coaches becomes a pretty bad look.
All that's to say that I'm sure the pendulum will swing back before season's end. Love him or hate him, Bielema is a good coach. He's also coaching a team that went 6-6 in the regular season last year, not 10-2. So while Razorbacks fans may be disappointed that this team is apparently not Top 25-caliber after all, he'd still be showing progress just by getting to 7-5. And I'd be surprised if that doesn't happen. But if the season keeps going south and Arkansas ends up 5-7, absolutely he'd be on the hot seat going into next season. Jeff Long isn't paying him $4 million a year to lose to Toledo and Texas Tech.
Hi Stewart — Love the Mailbag. I have a 14-, 12- and 10-year old who LOVE Weird Al. YouTube opens up all this old stuff to them and they think he is awesome.
— Henry Allain, Irvine, Calif.
Well, I'll be damned. Let's see if they, too, soon graduate to Def Leppard and Guns 'N' Roses before going full grunge when they get to high school, swear off Top 40 radio for "alternative" in college, then eventually grow up, move to the suburbs and listen to Taylor Swift and Katy Perry like everybody else.
When will we see the illegal lineman downfield rule either changed or enforced? The current practice makes it impossible for a DB or LB to properly play defense.
— Jason Matthew Roberts, Chapel Hill, N.C.
First of all, just a reminder that you can now submit questions on Facebook (where this one came from) by liking my page. I'm turning to it more and more, both because my followers send a lot of great/amusing questions, but also because it puts my Internet sleuthing skills to the test. For example, nowhere on Jason's page does it say where he lives, and in fact most of his pictures appear to be at Alabama games. But a quick Google search turned up this, and yep, that's clearly the same person. I take great satisfaction in solving these riddles.
(That being said ... please just tell me where you're writing from.)
Last winter, the NCAA's Football Rules Committee proposed changing the current rule, which allows linemen to block up to 3 yards downfield, to the NFL's 1-yard rule. It got tabled after resistance from many coaches, but we were told the existing rule would be more closely enforced. I didn't think much of it at the time, but that changed during the Ole Miss-Alabama game last Saturday night. The second-and-1 pop pass Chad Kelly threw for a 73-yard touchdown would be hard enough to defend as it is — if you're a cornerback, are you really going to keep covering your receiver when you see the quarterback come running right at you? — without right guard Jordan Sims blocking Tide linebacker Reuben Foster at least 5 yards downfield. If officials, like defenders, are too preoccupied with the quarterback to notice, then they need to change the rule.
Can't wait to say I told you so when BYU smokes UCLA tonight. BYU by at least two touchdowns. Take it to the bank.
— David Holland
Oh, c'mon. Is this David Holland the BYU-Idaho employee or David Holland the BYU advisory board member? If you're going to come on here talking smack, at least have the decency to make yourself Internet stalk-able.
Stewart — If you are Leonard Fournette, are you already considering sitting out the 2016 season? While it seems ridiculously early, it's hard to imagine what else he has to prove to NFL scouts over his remaining 24 or so games (600+ chances to blow out a knee).
— Andrew, San Francisco
So we're going down the Jadeveon Clowney road again already? Really?
While I believe the rule requiring players to wait three years to enter the NFL is archaic and unfair, the legal system has thus far upheld it. So I suppose this will become a story yet again if Fournette does end up having a huge season. I'll say the same thing I said about the Clowney non-story at the time: I'm not cynical enough to assume that Fournette's sole reason for playing at LSU is to market himself to the NFL. Believe it or not, many college players actually enjoy playing in 90,000-seat stadiums, being with their teammates and, yes, going to college.
Furthermore, while the risk of injury for running backs is certainly real (just look around the country), the odds of sustaining an injury as debilitating as Marcus Lattimore's are still extremely low. Fournette's exceptional talent is plainly obvious; as horrible as it would be if he tore his ACL, it would take something more than that to severely impact his draft stock. Case in point, that very thing happened to Georgia's Todd Gurley and he still went in the Top 10. Frankly, it may be a bigger risk to sit out, seeing as NFL teams might question his dedication/passion.
Good morning Stewart, love following you on Twitter. I was curious as to why you haven't tweeted something self-deprecating after your ludicrous 2-10 prediction about Syracuse went by the wayside in week THREE!!!! I mean, holy smokes, you were waaaaay off.
Thanks for the work you do.
— Gary
No, thank YOU, Gary, both for pointing out my staggering lapse in judgment and making it impossible to Google your location. "Gary" turns up 386,000,000 results.