Mailbag: Ohio State beating Alabama would hardly be an upset & more
NEW ORLEANS -- When I penciled in this week’s Mailbag for Dec. 30, I assumed the majority of questions would be about Alabama-Ohio State, Oregon-Florida State or the other New Year’s Six bowls.
And then Harbaugh happened.
But by gosh, I’m here to cover the Sugar Bowl so we’re going to start with the Sugar Bowl. (Not to mention I already wrote a separate column on Michigan.)
Hey Stewart. The lead-up to the Ohio State vs. Alabama game feels eerily similar to the lead-up to the 2002 National Championship game between Ohio State and Miami. Do you see any similarities or is it two completely different situations?
-- Will, Denver
It’s similar in that Ohio State was a heavy underdog in both games. But in every other manner it feels completely different to me. Especially having covered the week leading up to that game and now the week leading up to this one.
Miami came into that game as an undefeated defending champion with a 34-game winning streak. The ‘Canes were widely considered untouchable. While Alabama has certainly been the sport’s most dominant program over the past several years, its 2014 team hardly feels unbeatable (as evidenced by the fact it lost a game). Meanwhile, that 2002 Ohio State team -- coached by then-barely established Jim Tressel -- earned the nickname “Luckeyes” because of all their close calls. The 2014 team -- coached by two-time national champion Urban Meyer -- is not undefeated, but it did win the bulk of its games by scores like 52-24, 42-27 and, in the Big Ten championship game, 59-0.
I know some people (mainly in the South) still hold the perception that Ohio State isn’t in the same league talent-wise as teams like Alabama, but that’s just plain inaccurate. Not with the way Meyer has recruited. Just because the Buckeyes play in a weaker conference doesn’t mean they’re in a different league than a premier SEC team.
“We have talent and they have talent. It’s an even talent battle,” Ohio State defensive tackle Michael Bennett said this week. “It doesn’t come down to who has faster guys. We have just as many 4.3 guys as they do. It doesn’t come down to who’s got stronger guys. We have just as many 600-pound bench pressers as they do. Whoever comes to play Thursday will win this game.”
The wild-card, of course, is the fact Ohio State is playing this game with a third-string quarterback, Cardale Jones, albeit one who looked pretty good in his one start to date. For that reason alone Alabama is still the rightful favorite, but it should hardly be considered an all-time upset if these Buckeyes prevail over this Alabama team.
Hi Stewart, I'm a Jets fan but currently live in Michigan and am wondering if you think Jim Harbaugh stays at UM long-term? It seems like every December his name is going to come up for NFL jobs, and they're either going to have to keep sweetening the pot or he's going to take an NFL job. Obviously he didn't think much of the Jets job (among others) this year, but isn't it only a matter of time before he's back in NFL?
-- Sterling Heights, Mich.
I’d put the over-under on Harbaugh’s Michigan tenure at four years -- same as he lasted at Stanford and the 49ers. But that’s not because I think he’s biding his time until the right NFL job comes open. He has so many attachments to so many people affiliated with that school -- not to mention they’re paying him so much damn money -- I have no doubt he’ll fully commit himself to restoring honor to the Maize and Blue.
But look at his track record. At each place, he came in and galvanized a bunch of players starving for success, exceeded the wildest imaginable expectations, but wore everybody down with his manic antics to the point where Stanford people were hardly heartbroken to see him go and 49ers management literally tried to trade him. Now he walks into a similar situation at Michigan, where the players have had mostly miserable careers to date and the fan base is desperate to be relevant again. I see his tenure following a similar arc.
But If I’m a Michigan fan, I’m not worrying about how long he stays -- I’m going out and buying khakis and celebrating. And you never know. Alabama turned career vagabond Nick Saban into a now eighth-year coach who I fully expect to finish his career there. He finally found a situation so harmonious there’s no incentive for him to leave. Maybe Harbaugh’s familiarity and affinity for Michigan will help mellow him out. Until then, it will probably be quite a few years before Michigan fans can go through an NFL Black Monday without feeling a little bit nervous.
Hi Stewart, With Harbaugh going to Michigan, which division now has the best coaches? I would rank them (1) SEC West (Saban, Les Miles, Gus Malzahn, Kevin Sumlin, Dan Mullen, Hugh Freeze, and Bret Bielema); (2) Big Ten East (Meyer, Harbaugh, James Franklin and Mark Dantonio); and (3) Pac-12 North (David Shaw, Mark Helfrich, Chris Peterson, Mike Leach and Gary Andersen).
-- Alex, Arlington, Virginia
It depends on how you evaluate conferences. Most peoples’ perceptions are based on the teams at the top -- i.e. how many does a league have in the top 25 -- but I tend to look at top-to-bottom depth. If you fall in the former camp, it’s hard to argue against the Big Ten’s new top two of Meyer/Harbaugh. If you’re looking at all seven teams, though, that SEC West roster is unbelievable. Every one of those guys has won big at some point. And I’d still put the Pac-12 North above the Big Ten East because the latter gets dragged down by Randy Edsall and Kevin Wilson at the bottom.
But I’d be curious to revisit the topic in a couple of years, when we’ll have a better sense of just what Franklin’s capable of accomplishing at Penn State, whether Dantonio can maintain Michigan State as top 10-15 team without defensive coordinator Pat Narduzzi, with a functioning Michigan program and, presumably, when a coupe of those bottom-feeders have changed coaches. Frankly, its remarkable just how much wattage that division has added in the span of two offseasons with Franklin and Harbaugh -- and no coincidence, it involved shelling out a lot of dollars. Just like in the SEC West.
Mr. Mandel. Is it just me or has the playoff ruined the rest of the bowl games? I know it’s still the early games but I haven't found any interest watching the games. It feels like the equivalent of watching the NIT instead of the Final Four.
-- Ralph, Leesville, Lousiana
Some people already felt the bowl games were like NIT games even before the playoff era. I was not among that crowd. But I can tell you I’ve watched less bowl action this year by far then ever before. I mostly caught bits and pieces of the early games like Miami Beach and Bahamas (which both turned out to have wild endings). Since arriving here in New Orleans on the 26th, I haven’t had a lot of idle time to sit in front of the tube. As I write this, the Russell Athletic Bowl is playing on my hotel room TV. But even this past Saturday night, before media events really got going, I thought for sure I’d closely watch the USC-Nebraska Holiday Bowl. Then the game started and it just didn’t feel all that important. I went to a restaurant with a few fellow writers and kept one eye on it.
I knew this day was coming. I didn’t think it would happen in Year 1. But as I expected, the entire focal point of the sport changed this season. In the past, every team in the country was playing to get to the best possible bowl, and two teams were fortunate enough to play for the national championship. From the very first week this season, however, the overwhelming storyline was which teams would reach the playoff, rendering everything else an afterthought. The bowls are still fun to watch. They still mean just as much to the participants and, I presume, the fans of the teams. But other than the Rose and Sugar bowls and maybe a couple of the other Dec. 31/Jan. 1 games like TCU-Ole Miss, they just don’t feel as important as they used to. And I take no pleasure in writing that.
Do you feel like the Baylor-Michigan State and TCU-Ole Miss games carry added weight for the Big 12 this year? Both Big 12 teams thought they should have made the playoff and are now playing the second-best team in the Big Ten and the third-best in the SEC (Ole Miss). I know each season is evaluated on its own, but I can’t imagine these results wouldn’t be in the back of the committee’s mind next year. I think it is very important that Baylor (and TCU to a lesser degree) win for the Big 12’s reputation.
-- Tony, Waco, Texas
They really shouldn’t carry any larger ramifications, but we know they will. Conference mates West Virginia, Oklahoma and Texas did the Bears and Horned Frogs no favors with their bowl oh-fer on Monday. Granted, bowl games are a new season. The teams aren’t the same after a three- or four-week layoff. Coaches have left or are about to leave. Seniors or imminent draft entrants may have one foot out the door. Eager younger players may do things you never saw from them during the regular season. I don’t personally believe Baylor’s, TCU’s or Ohio State’s bowl performances should serve as any sort of referendum on the committee’s selections, but I’m sure they will.
As for an impact on next season … we’ll see. That was certainly the case with the traditional polls in large part due to the fact the bowls impacted teams’ preseason rankings. Theoretically, the committee goes in with a blank slate, but they’re human. And with TCU and Baylor in particular, if you’re of the belief that their “new money” status may have hurt their perception, then yes, they could really use these wins as a form of validation.
Even though TCU won a Rose Bowl four years ago, I do believe beating a top-10 SEC team would do wonders for the program. And considering Baylor flopped against UCF in last year’s Fiesta Bowl, beating a top-10 Spartans team in a major bowl would be enormous. If they lose … I still think they’re both going to be very good next year regardless. But not everyone has a short memory.
Hey Stewart. I am an avid LSU fan but my NFL team is Tampa Bay. My Bucs will be in the market for an offensive coordinator this offseason. While I put myself squarely in the Lane Kiffin hater camp long before he came to 'Bama, I couldn't help but grow to respect his offensive prowess this year. Do you think he would consider a move to the NFL as an OC? His dad had great success with the Bucs so I presume he has some roots in the area.
-- Russell Y. Macomber, Ormond Beach, Florida
Wow, it’s Lane Kiffin Appreciation Week. His news conference here Monday turned into a de facto victory lap. It was the most at ease I’ve seen him since early in his USC head-coaching tenure. And now I’m actually getting e-mails from people who WANT him to coach for their favorite team? Amazing.
Tampa would certainly be a natural fit for the younger Kiffin, who knows the area well. He recruited both former USC star Mike Williams and current Trojans standout Nelson Agholor out of Tampa. And he certainly knows that franchise. But in listening to Kiffin speak Monday, it’s clear he considers his Alabama job the equivalent of an aspiring engineer getting to intern at Google. He clearly wants to be a head coach again, and he’s learning from the master while getting to call plays for a ridiculously talented offense. Anything’s possible, but he sounded definitive about coming back next year.
If on the other a hand a year from now, his phone’s still not ringing, then I could definitely see him trying to get back in the NFL. Especially if it means getting to mentor a young quarterback like Marcus Mariota. But frankly, the Alabama offensive coordinator job is more attractive than the run-of-the-mill NFL coordinator job.
Stewart. As you so eloquently explained in Thinking Fan's Guide to the College Football Playoff, the National Championship game will be played the first Monday that’s at least a week after New Year's. Is Friday that awful for TV? I would love to see a national title game played earlier in one of the years that has a long layoff.
-- Justin Barrow, New Bern, North Carolina
ESPN seems pretty wed to Monday night. It’s a big TV night and football fans are obviously conditioned to it. It also allows organizers to turn the event itself into a long weekend, much like the Final Four, with concerts, fan fests and what not. And for college presidents to pat themselves on the back for making sure the players get to go back to classes for a full week. But don’t kid yourself. It’s all about TV.
Have you ever seen a quarterback situation like Ohio State will have next year with Braxton Miller, J.T. Barrett and Cardale Jones? What QB coach wouldn't love to run that room?
-- Brian, Arizona
Jones looked at us with bewilderment the other day when someone asked him about one or more of them possibly transferring. “I can't see anybody doing anything drastic next year,” he said, then answering a follow-up with, “I can’t see it. But I guess anything’s possible.”
Personally, I’ll believe it when I see it. It’s impossible to forecast anything without first seeing how Jones performs in the playoff, not to mention Miller and Barrett might not be healthy enough to start practicing again until after the spring. So those guys might have no better idea of the pecking order then than they do now. But it’s hard to imagine Barrett returning to the bench if he’s healthy. Which means Miller, who graduated this month and can thus transfer and play immediately, will likely be looking into other options.
But man, if they really do all stay put, either a two-time Big Ten player of the year (Miller), a Heisman top five vote-getter (Barrett) or a Big Ten championship winner (Jones) will be the third-stringer. That’s insane.
What is your day-to-day operation while covering a game on site? Do you get to pick your assignment (NOLA vs. LA) or is it assigned to you from the higher ups? And any major differences between reporting for SI.com and FOX that you've noticed so far?
-- Chris Mills, Hilliard, Ohio
Yeah, there’s one major difference -- I had to pack suits and hair product. Starting with Media Day on Tuesday I’m pulling double-duty for Fox Sports 1, and that’s really a different type of reporting. When writing articles, I’m looking for feature topics or other angles that people might want to take time out of their work day to read. For TV, though, I’m trying to talk to as many different voices as possible on both teams to help sum up the day in about 60 seconds of air-time.
As for picking the destination, maybe some years Bruce and I will draw straws, but given L.A. is home for him, obviously it made sense for him to cover the Rose and me to come here. I’m sure he’ll return the favor in 2027 when the Foster Farms Bowl joins the semifinal rotation.
Stewart Mandel is a senior college sports columnist for FOXSports.com. He covered college football and basketball for 15 years at Sports Illustrated. His new book, "The Thinking Fan's Guide to the College Football Playoff," is now available on Amazon. You can follow him on Twitter @slmandel. Send emails and Mailbag questions to Stewart.Mandel@fox.com.