Jim Harbaugh or not, Michigan's smash-mouth approach will be key

ANN ARBOR, Mich. — A few minutes after replacing Jim Harbaugh at the lectern during Monday's media session at Schembechler Hall, acting coach Sherrone Moore was asked to describe how the non-suspended Michigan coaches strike a balance between honoring their bosses' wishes and doing what they feel is right during games.

"I think the preparation that we've had up to this point in training camp and spring ball, all through the season, has really prepped us for these moments," Moore said. "To think like Coach [Harbaugh] does and, at the same time, make the decisions that we think he would want."

It's an interesting response when viewed through the prism of Harbaugh's track record in critical games across the program's three-year revival, a run that began with an upset of Ohio State in 2021. Already known as a coach who employs a throwback style predicated on smash-mouth football — the kind of system that relishes extra offensive linemen, an array of tight ends and the kind of tailbacks who aren't afraid to hurl themselves into walls 20 or 30 times each week — Harbaugh typically leans into that ethos even more against marquee opponents. Saturday's showdown against undefeated Ohio State would seem to fit that mold.

In 2021, Michigan finished the season with a run-pass ratio of 1.5 to 1 en route to the first College Football Playoff appearance in school history. But in high-pressure games against Washington (3.5 to 1) and Ohio State (2.1 to 1), Harbaugh's reliance on the rushing attack skyrocketed. The same thing happened the following year, in 2022, when the Wolverines rode a run-pass ratio of 1.6 to 1 to their second consecutive trip to the national semifinals but navigated important wins over Iowa (1.8 to 1) and Penn State (2.3 to 1) by keeping the ball on the ground far more often than they threw it.

Casting aside Harbaugh's initial three-game suspension against lowly non-conference foes East Carolina, UNLV and Bowling Green, the first two games of his Big Ten-imposed suspension at the business end of the season have followed a similar pattern as the previous seasons. An overall run-pass ratio of 1.6 to 1 through 11 games was amplified by run-heavy wins over Penn State (5.8 to 1) and Maryland (2 to 1) in which Moore's play calling made it seem like Harbaugh never left his side, even as he watched those wins from the team hotel and his brother John Harbaugh's house, respectively.

"Coach Harbaugh means so much to this program," tailback Blake Corum said, "but especially to myself and the guys, you know? He's formed a culture here. He's a players' coach, great guy. We love playing for him. A lot of us would run through a wall for him, so it's definitely been tough. Going into The Game without him, it's kind of just adding fuel to the fire. Not that we weren't going to play hard at all, but might play a little harder for him."

Even with Corum returning for his senior year after rushing for 1,463 yards and 18 touchdowns in 2022, the Michigan ground attack has been difficult to figure out so far this season. Losing an All-Big Ten left tackle in Ryan Hayes and an All-American center in Olu Oluwatimi forced Moore, who doubles as the team's offensive line coach in addition to being the offensive coordinator, to dip into the transfer portal in search of plug-and-play veterans. The Wolverines' starting center, Drake Nugent, came to Ann Arbor from Stanford. The starting left tackle, LaDarius Henderson, joined Michigan after a successful career at Arizona State.

Traditional rushing statistics suggest Michigan's run game is far worse than it's been the last two seasons. An overall average of 171 yards per game falls well short of the '22 mark of 238.9 YPG and the 2021 mark of 214.4 YPG. As a result, the Wolverines have dropped to 50th nationally in rushing after finishing in the top 15 for each of the previous two campaigns. Corum has topped 100 yards in a game just twice in 2023 after doing so in eight consecutive games last year.

Some of the underlying advanced metrics tell a different story, pointing instead toward a much gentler regression if there's even a regression at all. In terms of power success rate, which measures "the percentage of running plays on third or fourth down from 2 yards or less in which an offense either converted a first down or scored a touchdown, the Wolverines are converting at a clip of 77.6% after finishing with rates of 75.9% in 2022 and 79.1% in 2021, according to CollegeFootballData.com. And when it comes to stuff rate, which measures the percentage of running plays stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage, this year's team is markedly better at avoiding negative plays: 12.4% in 2023 (16th nationally); 16.6% in 2022 (66th nationally); 13.6% in 2021 (28th nationally). 

"Their running game is multiple because of all the different formations," Ohio State defensive coordinator Jim Knowles said. "They do a great job hiding their formations and their intent. Their offensive line is as good as we've faced, and the backs are really good. When you look at the history of The Game, it starts there, you have to (stop) that. So then the balance becomes, how do you prevent the explosive plays on the back end with not over-committing and leaving yourself exposed?"

Ohio State's defense has continued to take steps forward in Year 2 under Knowles, who joined head coach Ryan Day's staff ahead of the 2022 campaign after four seasons at Oklahoma State. He's improved the Buckeyes from 28th in rushing defense the year before he arrived (126.8 YPG) to 26th a season ago (121.1 YPG) to 21st entering Saturday (108.6 YPG). Knowles' group has allowed just three rushing touchdowns all season, which is tied with UCLA for the second-fewest in college football, and ranks sixth in defensive power success rate with a 56.5% stop rate in short-yardage and goal-line situations outlined by CollegeFootballData.com.

The good news for Michigan is that Corum will be fully healthy to face Ohio State for the first time in his collegiate career. A knee injury limited Corum to just two carries for 6 yards against the Buckeyes in 2022 as backfield partner Donovan Edwards shouldered the load by racking up 216 yards and two scores. And in 2021, when Corum was still recovering from an ankle injury, the Wolverines relied on Hassan Haskins to shoulder a 28-carry workload that netted 169 yards and five touchdowns. The two teams never played during the pandemic-shortened 2020 season.

Still unknown is exactly how involved quarterback J.J. McCarthy can be as a runner during Saturday's game. McCarthy suffered an undisclosed leg injury in the win over Penn State and described his mobility as being "a little bit rough" after last week's trip to Maryland. He's topped 25 rushing yards in five of Michigan's 11 games this season and is tied for second on the team in rushing touchdowns with three.

"Who knows what Coach Moore wants and expects out of me," McCarthy said earlier this week. "But I would just predict that we're gonna do anything and everything to win this football game, whether it's me running the ball or just throwing the ball. I feel like things will arise just from scrambling and then taking off [out of the pocket]. But no matter what he asks of me, I'm just gonna go out there and execute."

— Bryan Fischer of FOX Sports contributed reporting from Columbus, Ohio. 

Michael Cohen covers college football and basketball for FOX Sports with an emphasis on the Big Ten. Follow him on Twitter at @Michael_Cohen13.