Is South Carolina a must win for MSU?

After losing to South Alabama last Saturday, many fans have referred to the South Carolina game as a must win. But is it really? Let’s take a deeper look.

Why South Carolina Might Not be a Must Win:

It’s only Week 2. Yeah, State lost to South Alabama. But there are still 11 games to be played. There’s still 92% of the season left to play. That’s a lot of games. No one denies making a bowl is a harder task now, but would it really be surprising if State wins 6 of the next 11?

Dan Mullen hasn’t missed a bowl since his very first year. The Dawgs have been to 6 straight bowls, including one of the New Year’s Six. That’s a very good run and plenty of reason to believe State can keep the streak alive.

There were some positive signs in the USA loss. The defensive line was solid all day and limited USA to just 3.2 yards per rush. They also generated decent pressure on the Jaguar’s QB. Our linebacker play was poor, but it’s hard to believe a group that includes players like Richie Brown, Leo Lewis, JT Gray, and Gerri Green will continue to play so poorly. In fact, it’s much more likely they will play closer to the way they have over the course of their careers, especially Brown. It’s also hard to think Brandon Bryant will play as poorly all season as he did last Saturday. The team was super flat against USA. We all have to think they’ll come out emotionally ready against an SEC opponent.

Why South Carolina Might be a Must Win:

State’s loss to USA was the biggest upset in 5 years, according to ESPN’s FPI. And what’s worse is that it wasn’t a fluke. USA plain whipped State. The Dawgs were just 2 of 9 on 3rd down and had zero turnovers. USA dominated time of possession, holding the ball 36 minutes and 41 seconds. Those stats are indicative of a team that was just outplayed. If State finished with 4 turnovers, you might be more inclined to think it was simply a case of everything the could go wrong for State did go wrong.

Personnel issues continued to be a major problem. After doing enough to draw the start, Nick Fitzgerald only lasted 6 plays and was never reinserted into the game, despite Damian Williams struggling to move the offense in the second half. Dontavian Lee, Nick Gibson, and Alec Murphy never saw the field. After getting two rushes in the first quarter, Aeris Williams didn’t touch the ball again. Kivon Coman was particularly poor at safety but Mark McLaurin barely played and Jamal Peters only managed to get special teams action. Chris Rayford struggled at CB but Maurice Smitherman and Chris Stamps never got a shot. I could keep going, but you get the point. Somehow players who at least deserve a chance to show they can step up aren’t getting it.

State’s OL struggled to open holes against a depleted Sun Belt DL. The vaunted MSU front seven, while solid, didn’t dominate the way you would have expected. State’s receivers struggled to get separation and had several drops. Frankly, USA was the better team.

Mullen treated the game like it was NFL Preseason and the team played accordingly. The team was flat and uninterested. They channeled their coach in that regard. Mullen seems to have become complacent and the team took it’s cue from him. There was no energy or passion on display Saturday. The Dawgs just went through the motions and it bit them.

Perhaps what’s most concerning is the program itself seems to have no identity right now. Are we a physical, hard nosed running team that tries to throw? Or are we a throwing team that struggles to run? Are we a hard nosed, attacking D? Or are we a read and react D that hopes the other team makes mistakes? Who are the leaders and why haven’t they stepped up?

Verdict:

Personally, I believe this game is indeed a must win for State and Dan Mullen. Beat SCar and you get most of those on the fence, or those who hopped across it after USA, back on your side. If State loses, Mullen could lose the team and see the season spiral out of control to a 2-10 or 3-9 type of finish. And to be blunt, Mullen has used up a vast amount of the good will he built up by shopping himself to every open job in the nation the last few seasons. He’s being paid $4M+ a year and keeps trying to find greener pastures. That’s rubbed many, many people the wrong way.

But perhaps most concerning is how his vision of the team and the way he develops an offense has changed. The Dan Mullen who came to Starkville in 2009 talked about how the spread allowed you to get your best athletes on the field and put them in space. He spoke of tailoring the offense to your players. The Dan Mullen of 2015 and early 2016 seems more inclined to run a specific system regardless of what players he has. The Dan Mullen of 2009-2014 ran a power running spread that featured lots of read option and play action. The Dan Mullen of 2015-16 runs a generic, finesse spread and is obsessed with 50/50 run/pass balance. The Dan Mullen of 2009 talked about how the strength & conditioning (S&C) coach was the most important member of the staff because of the contact limits set on the “traditional” coaching staff by the NCAA. The Dan Mullen of 2016 promoted the current S&C coach from within and didn’t even pretend to look at other candidates.

For all the foregoing reasons, my gut says that not only is Saturday a must win for State’s bowl hopes in 2016, it says Mullen may well be coaching for his job. No coach in the modern era has lost 3 straight Battles for the Golden Egg and been retained. If State finishes 3-9 or 2-10, or even 4-8 with a loss to Northern Miss, one would have to think Mullen is done.