How J.J. McCarthy can strengthen his case as the best Michigan QB ever

When J.J. McCarthy helped Michigan defeat Ohio State last season, he proved that he could win a big game. When No. 3 Michigan hosts No. 2 Ohio State on Saturday (noon ET on FOX and the FOX Sports app), he'll look to keep the Wolverines undefeated, and in the process, boost his legacy.

Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh said in October that the junior "has shown to be on path to be the best quarterback in Michigan history," citing the number of drives that the Wolverines finished with a score during McCarthy's time as a starter to that point. 

McCarthy helped his case in the following weeks after his coach's statement on Oct. 16, throwing for 622 yards and four touchdowns in blowout wins for Michigan over the next two games. 

He briefly became the favorite to win the Heisman and has completed 73.8% of his passes this season for 2,335 yards, 18 touchdowns and four interceptions, with 164 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns as well, proving to be one of the nation's top quarterbacks.

McCarthy's stats have taken a bit of a hit over the last two games, though. He's thrown for just 201 yards as the coach who sang his praises served the first two games of a three-game suspension related to the program's alleged sign-stealing operation.

But none of that will matter in the eyes of Michigan fans if McCarthy pulls through in a big way against Ohio State on Saturday. He's already done it before, throwing for 263 yards and three touchdowns while adding a rushing score in the Wolverines' surprising victory in Columbus last season.

Let's take a look at how McCarthy can further help his case to be on the "path to be the best quarterback in Michigan history" on Saturday. 

Michigan quarterbacks with the most wins against Ohio State

As the Wolverines have largely struggled to beat the Buckeyes since the turn of the century, there naturally aren't many Michigan quarterbacks who have secured a win against Ohio State. 

McCarthy became just the seventh Michigan starting quarterback to defeat Ohio State since 1994. On Saturday, he has a chance to become just the second Michigan quarterback in that span to win multiple starts against Ohio State, with Brian Griese being the only other Wolverines quarterback to do so.

Griese helped Michigan to three straight wins over Ohio State (1995-97), becoming the only quarterback in Michigan history to win all three of his appearances against Ohio State. But Griese only started two of those games, leading Michigan to home wins as a starter in 1995 and 1997 while replacing a struggling Scott Dreisbach at halftime in the 1996 battle and leading the Wolverines to 13 unanswered points in a 13-9 win.

McCarthy can earn his third overall win against Ohio State on Saturday as well, though he didn't have as much of an impact as Griese did in the game he didn't start against Ohio State. In Michigan's 42-27 win over Ohio State in 2021, McCarthy completed a 31-yard pass and had two rushes for 12 yards, playing in the usual gadget role that Michigan used him in as a freshman. Still, his impact was beneficial as his plays were a part of scoring drives in the upset win, ending Michigan's 10-game losing streak to Ohio State at the time.

If McCarthy wins on Saturday, he'll also surpass some other Wolverines greats like Tom Brady, Denard Robinson, John Navarre and Todd Collins, while tying other Michigan icons like Griese, Elvis Grbac and Harbaugh (among others) to win two games as a starting quarterback against the Buckeyes. 

Michigan quarterbacks with the best statistics against Ohio State

McCarthy's performance against Ohio State last season was actually one of the top passing performances ever by a Michigan quarterback against its rival. His three passing touchdowns were tied for the second-most by a Michigan quarterback in a game against Ohio State, trailing just Devin Gardner, who threw for four touchdowns in the 2013 meeting. Gardner also threw for the most yards for a Michigan quarterback ever against Ohio State, passing for 451 yards that day. 

But unlike McCarthy, Gardner didn't beat Ohio State in 2013. In fact, the four Michigan quarterbacks to throw for the most yards in a single game against Ohio State since 1995 didn't win those respective matchups (Gardner, Brady, Chad Henne, Shea Patterson), with Drew Henson's 303 passing yards in the 2000 game being the most thrown by a Michigan quarterback in a win over Ohio State since 1995.

So, McCarthy's 263 passing yards in last year's game were the second-most thrown by a Michigan quarterback in a win over Ohio State since 1995. He's also just 231 passing yards away from the 525 that Brady threw over his two starts against Ohio State.

He is well short of the 818 passing yards Henne threw over his three starts against Ohio State, but Henne was 0-3 in those games, giving McCarthy a notable edge there.

What would McCarthy need to do against Ohio State to help his case as Michigan's best QB ever?

Obviously, a win would go a long way. While he would only tie Harbaugh, Grbac and Griese for the most wins as a starting quarterback for Michigan against Ohio State over the last 40 years, McCarthy's two wins would arguably be among the most impressive. 

If Michigan wins on Saturday, McCarthy would be the only quarterback of that group to have multiple wins as a starter over a previously undefeated Ohio State team. Harbaugh and Grbac picked up each of their wins against Ohio State teams that had lost earlier in the year, while Griese defeated a previously undefeated Ohio State team in 1997. It should be noted that Ohio State was also undefeated in 1996 when Griese led Michigan to a comeback win as well. 

There might be a greater weight surrounding a win on Saturday over almost any other Michigan victory over Ohio State. Michigan is embroiled in a sign-stealing controversy that's led many to question the program's recent success and has caused its coach to be sidelined for three games, including Saturday. 

McCarthy probably wouldn't be able to throw just eight passes — zero in the second half — as he did in the first of the two games he was without Harbaugh, a 24-15 win over Penn State. But if McCarthy put up a similar stat line to last year's game, Michigan would probably be sitting in a good spot to gain its third straight win against Ohio State. If he had another 250-yard passing performance with three passing touchdowns, he'd be the only Michigan quarterback since 1995 with multiple such performances against Ohio State. 

Even with an impressive performance on Saturday, McCarthy's hopes of becoming the first quarterback in Michigan history to win the Heisman Trophy this season are likely out of reach. But he appears to be in line to be named first-team All-Big Ten this season, an honor that Harbaugh, Grbac and Griese all also achieved during their Michigan careers. Grbac is statistically the most accomplished of the group, throwing for the third-most yards (6,460) and touchdowns (71) in program history over his four years in Ann Arbor.

McCarthy would still have the opportunity to play for a national title if he won on Saturday, potentially joining Griese as the only Michigan quarterbacks to win a national title since 1948. But unlike Griese, McCarthy is already in the top 10 in passing yards (eighth, 5,570) and passing touchdowns (tied for sixth; 45) in program history.

It's almost a certainty that no Michigan quarterback will reach the heights Brady did in the NFL. But McCarthy is definitely within reach of being considered the best quarterback in Michigan history, and a win against Ohio State would certainly help his case.