Heisman Trophy preview: Analysis of each candidate, our picks and more

By RJ Young, Michael Cohen and Bryan Fischer
Published

On Saturday night in New York, a new Heisman Trophy winner will be crowned.

While we don't know for certain who will win, there are a couple of things we do know:

  1. The winner will be a quarterback, as that is the position shared by all four finalists — Caleb Williams, Max Duggan, C.J. Stroud and Stetson Bennett.
  2. We will not have a repeat winner. Alabama quarterback Bryce Young, last season's winner, did not receive an invitation to the festivities. Ohio State running back Archie Griffin is the only player to win the Heisman twice, which he accomplished in 1974 and 1975.

[How four star QBs became Heisman Trophy finalists]

Does finishing the season strong matter? Does winning override statistics? What are the special qualities voters see in each finalist? And most importantly, who will win? 

FOX Sports college football writers RJ Young, Michael Cohen and Bryan Fischer have the answers to all your questions ahead of Saturday's ceremony.

Caleb Williams is the clear favorite (-2000 per FOX Bet). What made the USC quarterback stand out this season?

RJ: He’s the best playmaker we’ve seen since Kyler Murray and the most entertaining personality at the position since Johnny Manziel (see: Williams’ fingernails). He’s also the only 4,000-yard passer among the four Heisman finalists, and he’s thrown more passing TDs (37) and fewer interceptions (four) than his next closest rival, C.J. Stroud.

Michael: It’s easy to be mesmerized by Williams’ downfield passing ability given his gaudy average of 313.5 yards per game. But it’s his dual-threat talent that really catches the eye in person. He’s tied for sixth nationally among quarterbacks with 27 rushes of at least 10 yards this season and is tied for eighth with 10 rushing touchdowns. Even when he doesn’t take off and run, Williams is always maneuvering within the confines of the pocket or breaking free to extend a play by finding the right throwing angle outside the hashes. He’s a joy to watch.  

Bryan: It applies both on and off field, but the command Williams has displayed in taking over a new team, with tons of fellow transfers from all over the country, has been impressive. Of course, he makes ridiculous plays when escaping pressure or when the moment calls for it, but there’s something to be said about reviving a brand like USC and getting the entire team to the cusp of the CFP.

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FOX Sports NFL Analyst Sean Payton and Colin Cowherd discuss the impact of USC quarterback Caleb Williams.

Ohio State QB C.J. Stroud was the favorite for most of the season. What did you see in the final weeks that changed things?

RJ: Ohio State’s loss to Michigan perhaps sealed his fate among Heisman voters. The Game, as it is known, vaulted Aidan Hutchinson into the Heisman conversation and would have perhaps allowed Stroud to run away with the stiff-armed trophy had he avenged OSU’s 2021 loss. 

However, his invitation as a finalist for the most coveted award in the sport also speaks to what he has brought to it in two years as a starting quarterback at one of the nation’s best programs. And his story is not yet finished.

He’ll have the last word yet.

Michael: Fairly or not, Ohio State’s narrow win over Northwestern on Nov. 5 felt like the moment when many people’s perception of Stroud changed. He completed 10 of 26 passes for 76 yards under brutal weather conditions in what finished as his only game of the season without a passing touchdown. That the Buckeyes barely beat one of the worst teams in college football wasn’t a good look for Stroud.  

His performances the next few weeks likely compounded the problem. Stroud bounced back well enough against Indiana by throwing for 297 yards and five touchdowns in a rout, but he closed the season with consecutive misfires against Maryland (18-for-30, 241 yards, one TD) and Michigan (31-for-48, 349 yards, two TDs, two INTs) that probably swung voters too far in the other direction. He was outplayed by Maryland quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa in the former and produced just three second-half points in the latter. As the saying goes: It’s not how you start, it’s how you finish — and Stroud finished poorly. 

Bryan: It didn’t seem like he ever got into the rhythm he was in during that stretch early in the year. Those critical third-down throws that seemed like layups would instead be a few inches high during the tougher stretch run. That led to more pressure and consequently taking some chances that he didn’t need to take. He still had a great year overall, but it wasn’t the cleanest of finishes. 

Max Duggan wasn’t even TCU’s starting quarterback when the season started. What is most remarkable about his journey to Heisman finalist? 

RJ: For me, it’s that he is the player most responsible for Garett Riley winning the Broyles Award in his first year as offensive coordinator at TCU. Apart from that, he led TCU to its first undefeated regular season in 12 years, and he did it by winning games against five ranked opponents. 

His guts, his grit, his tenacity, his willingness to sacrifice his body for the sake of his team are inspiring. Duggan is the man you'd choose to have your back in a fistfight, and that’s what he’ll hope to bring to the Fiesta Bowl against Michigan in TCU’s first CFP appearance.

Michael: As wins and losses go, Duggan finished on the wrong end of this year’s Big 12 title game in his final appearance before the deadline for Heisman Trophy voters to cast their votes. But think about how different the lasting images were for Duggan and Stroud. The former was seen bleeding from what felt like all four limbs and nearly vomiting along the sideline after throwing for 251 yards and rushing for 110 more to drag the Horned Frogs to overtime in an eventual three-point loss to Kansas State. The latter flipped a hideous underhanded interception to Michigan defensive lineman Taylor Upshaw in a blowout home loss that kept the Buckeyes from the Big Ten Championship game.

The difference in talent between the two players is vast. Peak Duggan is a hailstorm of grit and determination, and will to wring every ounce of skill out of his 6-foot-2, 210-pound frame. Peak Stroud is predicated on flawless technique, pristine ball placement and the uncanny ability to make difficult throws seem easy. America loves an underdog, and that’s why college football fans love Duggan.

Bryan: Those words toughness and grit are apt, and it goes back even further than just this season. The kid had heart surgery and never wavered on trying to get back to playing. He took a lot of heat as being one of the reasons why school legend Gary Patterson was fired. He had to adjust to an entirely new coaching staff. He’s persevered through it all and still came up with key plays in the biggest of moments. If that’s not a great story I don’t know what is.

Many found it surprising that Georgia quarterback Stetson Bennett was a finalist. What do you think convinced voters that he was deserving?

RJ: Run it back. That’s what he did to convince voters. After leading the Dawgs to their first national title in 40 years, he followed up with an undefeated regular season and resounding win against LSU in the SEC Championship — a game UGA lost last year.

In the biggest games of the year — Oregon, Tennessee, LSU — Bennett met the occasion with confidence, panache and resiliency. That kind of wherewithal is worthy of the Heisman, too.

Michael: The Heisman Trophy is a single-season award, but inviting Bennett to New York for this year’s ceremony felt like an appreciation of his body of work over the last two years. The former walk-on guided Georgia to the national championship in 2021 by throwing for 300-plus yards in two of his three postseason appearances, and by playing interception-free football in the two biggest games of the year against Michigan (313 yards, three TDs) and Alabama (224 yards, two TDs). 

This year, Bennett increased his passing yardage by more than 1,000 and posted a wonderful touchdown-to-interception ratio of 20:6 through 13 games. He also rose to the occasion yet again in Georgia’s thrashing win over LSU in the SEC Championship game last week by completing 23 of 29 passes for 274 yards and four touchdowns. Bennett just knows how to win and doesn’t really care about being the star. 

Bryan: Some voters like the easy choice on their ballot, and the quarterback on the No. 1 team is that. Bennett has been very good, but I’m not convinced he’s the most outstanding player on his own offense, much less his team.

Still, the lack of options down South undoubtedly contributed.

Who should have been a finalist but wasn’t?

RJ: Blake Corum and Hendon Hooker did more than enough to warrant invitations to the Heisman ceremony.

Hooker has gifted UT with its best season in 25 years, its first win against Alabama in 16, and its first appearance at No. 1 in the CFP rankings. Corum put UM in a position to beat OSU for a second straight time after a 10-year losing streak, win its second-straight Big Ten title and make its second appearance in the CFP in as many years.

It’s cruel to think that neither of the two best players in the sport is being honored on this hallowed national stage simply because they suffered season-ending injuries in the final weeks of the season.

Michael: It definitely feels like Hooker should have made it to New York. Hooker still ranks 22nd in passing yards (3,135) despite missing the regular season finale after tearing his ACL, and a 300-yard performance against lowly Vanderbilt — whom the Volunteers demolished, 56-0, even without him — would have pushed him into the top 10 in that category. He’s the only quarterback in the country to have thrown at least 25 touchdown passes while also tossing fewer than four interceptions. And his 385-yard, five-touchdown epic in the win over Alabama will be remembered in Knoxville forever. 

Corum’s candidacy was hurt by how well backup Donovan Edwards played against Ohio State and Purdue to close the season. Edwards carried 47 times for 401 yards and three touchdowns in Michigan’s final two games to sprinkle some doubt in voters’ minds about the greatness of Corum relative to the greatness of the Wolverines’ offensive line, which could win the Joe Moore Award for the second consecutive year. Corum didn’t lead the Big Ten in rushing yards (Chase Brown with 1,643) or rushing touchdowns (Mohamed Ibrahim with 19). 

Bryan: Corum and Hooker are the easy answer, but the field seems so wide open that you could keep going down the list. I thought Bijan Robinson was terrific and put Texas on his back for long stretches during the season. Despite a rough finish, North Carolina QB Drake Maye was fantastic, too, and had a shot.

Time for your picks — who wins on Saturday?

RJ: It feels like most voters chose Williams after he embarrassed a sturdy Notre Dame team at the Coliseum, making him USC’s first Heisman winner since Reggie Bush — and the third winner Lincoln Riley has coached since 2017. 

Michael: Williams was the most outstanding player in college football from start to finish this season. His dual-threat talents made him must-see TV on a weekly basis, and that’s the kind of thing Heisman Trophy voters tend to reward.

Bryan: Williams showed up in the big moments, and he is unlikely to get dinged at all for playing in the Pac-12 title game on what amounted to one leg. As the country saw, the Trojans defense is suspect at best, and this was a team that got to double-digit wins almost completely due to the playmaking of its quarterback. He’s electric and makes even the most dynamic scoring play seem routine. Nobody really grabbed that famous bronze stiff arm and ran with it in 2022 quite like USC’s signal-caller did. 

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RJ Young is a national college football writer and analyst for FOX Sports and the host of the podcast "The Number One College Football Show." Follow him on Twitter at @RJ_Young and subscribe to "The RJ Young Show" on YouTube.

Michael Cohen covers college football and basketball for FOX Sports with an emphasis on the Big Ten. Follow him on Twitter at @Michael_Cohen13.

Bryan Fischer is a college football writer for FOX Sports. He has been covering college athletics for nearly two decades at outlets such as NBC Sports, CBS Sports, Yahoo! Sports and NFL.com among others. Follow him on Twitter at @BryanDFischer.