FSU Football: Will 'Noles Cover Spread Against Boston College?

Nov 22, 2014; Tallahassee, FL, USA; Florida State Seminoles defensive end Mario Edwards Jr. (15) tackles Boston College Eagles running back Myles Willis (23) during the second half of the game at Doak Campbell Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Melina Vastola-USA TODAY Sports

FSU football opened as huge betting favorites over Boston College on Sunday. Will the ‘Noles be able to cover the spread against the Eagles?

FSU football has struggled to cover the spread in the last couple of years. They’re a team oddsmakers love because they draw a lot of money from the general public.

As we know, the general public loses way more money than they win over the entire football season (or any season for that matter).

They opened as -21 point favorites over Boston College Sunday afternoon. It’s a huge number to cover for a team that’s been so Jekyll and Hyde all season.

Should the ‘Noles be that big of a favorite? Of course every year teams change and sometimes coaches come and go. However, the ‘Noles have struggled against Boston College the past couple of years.

Nov 28, 2015; Gainesville, FL, USA; Florida State Seminoles defensive back Jalen Ramsey (8) against the Florida Gators during the first quarter at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Last Two Years

FSU managed one offensive touchdown and a Jalen Ramsey fumble return for a touchdown helped the ‘Noles seal a 14-0 shutout win on the road in 2015.

FSU was a -10.5 betting favorite and wouldn’t have covered the spread without the defensive touchdown.

In 2014, FSU was a -19.5 point betting favorite over Boston College with Jameis Winston as their quarterback. The game was tied up 17-17 going into the fourth quarter with a field goal by Roberto Aguayo giving the ‘Noles the three-point win 20-17.

Admittedly, the game was played in less than ideal conditions with wind and pouring rain. However, professional bettors use all of that information and more when placing their wagers.

Oct 8, 2016; Miami Gardens, FL, USA; Florida State Seminoles tight end Mavin Saunders (88) celebrates during the second half against the Miami Hurricanes at Hard Rock Stadium. FSU won 20-19. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

A Glance At Both Teams This Year

FSU football has played one of the toughest schedules in the nation, and is a couple of plays from being 8-1 on the season.

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Boston College has struggled with the loss of defensive coordinator Don Brown to Michigan who previously had the Eagles as one of the best defensive teams in the country.

FSU is 3-5-1 overall against the spread this season and 2-4 as the betting favorite. They covered the spread against Ole Miss and South Florida earlier this season, and are 1-3-1 at Doak Campbell this season.

Boston College is 3-5-1 against the spread this season, and 1-3-1 as the underdog. They are 2-1 against the spread on the road.

If we look at F/+ Combined Ratings, FSU football is ranked as the No. 12 team in the country. Boston College is ranked No. 95 by the same metric.

According to S&P +, Boston College is the better defensive team at No. 25 with FSU coming in at No. 41.

However, according to S&P + FSU is the No. 7 offense in the country with Boston College coming in at No. 122.

Oct 7, 2016; Boston, MA, USA; Boston College Eagles defensive back John Johnson (9) during the first quarter against Clemson at Alumni Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Stew Milne-USA TODAY Sports

What BC Fans Think About The Spread

By now you all know I like to frequent FSU opponent forums to check their temperature prior to the games. So I checked out the EagleOutsider forums and here’s what we have:

-Is FSU really any good this year? Their on field results are not all that impressive. Don’t get me wrong, we’re going to get smoked but 21 points seems like a lot.

-i have been worried about numbers around here but adaziani has shown me that we can’t stay remotely competitive with any of the top 6 teams in the conference. even for a half.

the lack of preparation this season has been astounding. we arent even keeping 30 minutes close.

-I don’t think FSU covers that.

-If you get smoked, can it be by less than 21?

If you read our piece on NC State fans last week, you’d swore they were going to lose by 30 points, and FSU failed to cover the -6 point spread.

Nov 5, 2016; Raleigh, NC, USA; Florida State Seminoles head coach Jimbo Fisher watches his team during the first half against the North Carolina State Wolfpack at Carter Finley Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rob Kinnan-USA TODAY Sports

Final Thoughts

This will be the worst offense that FSU football has played this season. Wake Forest is the next closest and the ‘Noles held them under four yards per play and six points total.

FSU has faced better defenses than Boston College on the season. NC State, Miami, Louisville, and Clemson all have better defenses. Wake Forest is a defense ranked two spots below Boston College in the S&P + defensive rankings.

Boston College will have the best run defense on standard downs the ‘Noles have faced all season. It’s better than NC State and Clemson. However, Boston College’s pass defense is only ranked No. 56 by the same metric.

So it looks like the FSU offense will again live and die on the arm of redshirt freshman Deondre Francois. If he can make the short intermediate throws consistently, FSU will have a good shot at covering the spread.

If the FSU defense can limit BC to three and outs, forcing them to punt while giving the FSU offense short fields, it can cover the spread.

Will FSU be motivated to play Boston College? The good thing is it’s a night game at Doak Campbell Stadium, so it should be a good atmosphere that could help with that.

If I were a betting man(and I am), I’d probably pass on this game altogether. However, 21 points almost seems like free money too. Most of the time when bets seem too good to be true?

You know the rest.