Florida State shouldn't worry at all about being on playoff bubble

By Stewart Mandel
Published

The only set of selection committee rankings that truly matter will be the final one Sunday, but the penultimate version provided no shortage of fodder for another collective freak-out.

Here were my main takeaways:

WIN AND YOU'RE IN, FSU

Florida State is one more win from falling out of the playoff. I'm kidding, of course, but the committee continued to buck nearly 80 years of voter poll mentality by moving 10-1 TCU to No. 3 ahead of the now 12-0 Seminoles. While chairman Jeff Long's weekly debriefings often reference empirical elements like quality wins and schedule strength, his comments Tuesday night about these two teams reinforced that the committee does still watch the teams play.

On TCU, which won decisively at 6-6 Texas last week, 48-10: "We feel they're an improving team. We watch these games, we evaluate these teams, we feel TCU is a better team [than Florida State] at this time."

On Florida State, which slogged through a 25-19 win over 6-5 Florida: "In the past three weeks, Florida State has had struggles with unranked teams."

I happen to agree with the committee and moved TCU ahead of FSU in my FOX Four ballot this week as well. Ultimately this doesn't matter much, though. The 'Noles play a ranked team this week — No. 11 Georgia Tech — and a win by any margin will be enough to make the playoff.

JUDGEMENT DAY FOR BAYLOR

Baylor better make a heck of a last impression. The Bears now sit three spots behind the TCU team they beat, 61-58, with Long continuing to denigrate Baylor's schedule. This week for the first time he noted that while Baylor does have two wins over top-20 teams (TCU and Oklahoma), those are its only two victories against teams with records above .500. TCU has four.

He also mentioned the Bears' two-touchdown loss at West Virginia. Basically, these teams aren't close enough in the committee's mind to give much consideration to head-to-head.

But that could well change Saturday, when the Horned Frogs close out against the Big 12's worst team, Iowa State, while Baylor hosts No. 9 Kansas State. Their schedules will look much more similar at that point, though Long did say that TCU's non-conference win over Minnesota is "contributing to the difference between the two teams."

It seems increasingly apparent that the score of the teams' Oct. 11 game — a Baylor home game that TCU led by three touchdowns in the fourth quarter — is not going to decide which one makes the playoff. Baylor's got to prove it's the better team and it's got only one more chance.

ALL EYES ON BUCKEYES

Ohio State is essentially holding an audition Saturday. Long made it clear that Buckeyes quarterback J.T. Barrett's season-ending injury did not affect their ranking this week (they rose one spot to No. 5), but that the committee WILL closely evaluate how they play without him Saturday against Wisconsin.

The committee apparently is not enamored with the Badgers, who moved up just one spot from No. 14 to No. 13, following last week's division-clinching win over then-No. 18 Minnesota, so an ugly Ohio State win in the Big Ten title game might not be viewed favorably. It needs to show it hasn't missed a beat with Cardale Jones at quarterback.

ORANGE BOWL LIKELY SET

It's going to be a Michigan State-Georgia Tech Orange Bowl. In a mild surprise, the 10-2 Spartans not only rose from No. 10 to No. 8 but are now ahead of 10-2 Mississippi State, which dropped from fourth to 10th. The Orange Bowl's contract dictates that the spot opposite the ACC goes to the highest-ranked available at-large team from the Big Ten or SEC. That is now the Spartans, and provided Alabama wins the SEC Championship Game, Michigan State should stay that way, because Ohio State will either win the Big Ten or, if it loses to Wisconsin, plummet.

Similarly, Georgia Tech is now so much higher than the next ACC team, No. 17 Clemson, that it will likely go to the Miami game whether it beats Florida State (and becomes ACC champ) or loses to the 'Noles (and replaces playoff-bound FSU) on Saturday.

Stewart Mandel is a senior college sports columnist for FOXSports.com. He covered college football and basketball for 15 years at Sports Illustrated. His new book, "The Thinking Fan's Guide to the College Football Playoff," is now available on Amazon. You can follow him on Twitter @slmandel. Send emails and Mailbag questions to Stewart.Mandel@fox.com.