Five matchups that will decide Alabama vs. Cincinnati

By Rob Rang
FOX Sports NFL Draft Analyst

For casual observers, the Cotton Bowl matchup between top-ranked Alabama and its Heisman-winning quarterback, Bryce Young, and No. 4 Cincinnati might sound like a mismatch.

At first glance, Nick Saban and his pack of five-star recruits should win the New Year’s Eve clash in Arlington, Texas, setting him up for a potential shot at his eighth college football championship, the most in the history of the game.

But to qualify for that contest on Jan. 10 at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, the Tide had better come prepared. 

The undefeated Bearcats are understandably feeling disrespected as the fourth seed and are led by Luke Fickell, the reigning Coach of the Year.

These Bearcats aren’t just gritty and well-coached. They are also legitimately talented, leading the country with six players invited to the prestigious Senior Bowl. Alabama, by comparison, had just two prospects invited.

As such, from an NFL scouting perspective, the matchups suggest that this game could be closer than most think, with some of the tastiest one-on-one showdowns of the entire college football bowl season.

Here are five things NFL scouts will be watching in this year’s Cotton Bowl:

1. Young and the Alabama passing game face the best secondary in the country.

With all due respect to the old-school battle at the line of scrimmage brewing in the Orange Bowl, the most fascinating matchup of this year’s bowl games is between Alabama’s passing attack and Cincinnati’s secondary.

The Crimson Tide offense, of course, is led by Young, a sensational true sophomore who became the first Alabama QB to win the Heisman after throwing for 43 touchdowns against just four interceptions this season.

Young’s breakout play this season is even more incredible when considering that this is his first year as the starter, and Alabama had to replace receivers DeVonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle from last year's national champs. Smith, you’ll recall, was last year’s Heisman winner. With 96 grabs so far this season, Waddle is within five catches of the NFL record (currently held by former Arizona Cardinal Anquan Boldin) for catches by a rookie.

Losing superstars to the NFL is no worry in Tuscaloosa, where fresh talent seemingly washes ashore with each incoming Tide.

That was the case again this year, with Alabama luring Jameson Williams from Ohio State via the transfer portal. The 6-foot-2, 189-pound Williams is a dynamic athlete, showing the deep speed and body control to make covering him nearly impossible — at least when paired with a quarterback as accurate as Young. With just 15 catches in two seasons at Ohio State, Williams entered the year barely a blip on scouts’ radar. Now, with his 1,445 receiving yards and 15 touchdowns ranking fifth and third, respectively, among all FBS pass-catchers, he’s viewed as a potential first-round pick.

The playmaking Williams’ role in the Alabama passing game went from important to critical with the loss of dependable pass-catcher John Metchie III, who reportedly suffered a torn ACL in Alabama’s victory over Georgia in the SEC Championship Game.

As gifted as Alabama’s aerial assault might be, however, the Tide are matched by Cincinnati’s secondary, which has allowed just 168.3 passing yards per game (second in the FBS) and a total of 10 touchdowns through the air.

The Bearcats are led by the best set of cover corners in college football, with senior Coby Bryant (6-foot-1, 198 pounds) recently being honored with the Jim Thorpe Award as the nation’s top defensive back and splashy junior Ahmad "Sauce" Gardner (6-foot-3, 200 pounds) having never allowed a touchdown reception in 36 career collegiate games.

Much more agile than their lanky frames suggest and both proven playmakers, Bryant and Gardner are exactly the type of imposing cornerbacks the NFL prioritizes in today’s pass-happy game. Both could become top-50 selections in the 2022 draft.

2. Can Cincinnati QB Desmond Ridder maintain his composure against the Alabama defense?

When Alabama has the ball, the showdown among the skill-position players is easily the most fascinating matchup of this game. However, the player who might have the most pressure on him — and could boost his stock the most with a strong performance — is Ridder. Cincinnati’s senior quarterback enters the contest with an impressive 62.3% completion rate and 87 touchdowns against just 28 interceptions in his career.

Ridder isn’t as polished a passer as his counterpart, Young, but he has shown remarkable poise in his four years as a starter and has the size (6-foot-3, 215 pounds) and dual-threat abilities that scouts have more of an appreciation for in today’s game. What's more, his gritty play and leadership have earned him great respect in the scouting community, landing him a place at the Senior Bowl and among the handful of top quarterback prospects expected to be available in the upcoming draft.

Given the caliber of pass defense they face each day in practice, Ridder and his favorite downfield target, Alec Pierce, should find some openings against an Alabama secondary that isn’t quite as formidable as many of Saban’s prior units.

The Tide’s defensive line, however, could take over this contest. Edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. tied for the nation’s lead with 15.5 sacks. A candidate to be the No. 1 overall pick in this year’s draft (if the true sophomore were eligible), Anderson (6-foot-4, 245 pounds) is the most formidable of Alabama’s game-wreckers along the line of scrimmage, though the bigger-bodied Phidarian Mathis (6-foot-4, 312 pounds) will also make his presence felt against an overmatched Bearcats offensive line.  

3. Watch Alabama’s offensive tackles vs. the Bearcats’ pass rush.

While Cincinnati is expected to struggle against Alabama’s defensive pressure, the Bearcats might be able to exact a little revenge when Young and the Tide are on offense. Cincinnati boasts a versatile pair of pass-rushers in Myjai Sanders and Darrian Beavers.

With just 2.5 sacks on the season, Sanders (6-foot-5, 255 pounds) has not lived up to the expectations placed upon him after a splashy junior campaign in which he logged seven sacks and 10.5 tackles for loss. A closer look, however, shows that opponents often dedicated multiple blockers to slowing Sanders — something Alabama isn’t likely to do with one of the country’s elite prospects, left tackle Evan Neal, expected to draw the Bearcats’ twitchy edge rusher on most snaps.

Shockingly athletic for his size, Neal (6-7, 351) is a truly intimidating force whose upside warrants early first-round consideration, but he is not yet the finished product the highlight reels suggest. Neal can dominate blocks initially, but he has a tendency to lean and get himself off-balance. Should Cincinnati’s secondary be able to contain Alabama’s receivers for very long, Sanders could "surprise" with a few wins over the young tackle.

It will be interesting to see how Cincinnati employs Beavers against the Tide. A highly versatile defender who transferred to the Bearcats after seeing time at safety, linebacker and defensive end at Connecticut, Beavers (6-foot-4, 255 pounds) isn’t as long or twitchy as Sanders, but he is powerful, tough and smart. Neither he nor Alabama right tackle Chris Owens (6-foot-3, 305 pounds) is a special athlete, but their grit and versatility are likely to earn them Day 3 selections in the 2022 draft.

4. Former teammates are two of the most underappreciated RBs in college football.

Given the talent under center in this game, one can expect even more attention paid to the quarterbacks than normal. That is unfortunate, as the Cotton Bowl features two of the most underappreciated running backs in college football in Alabama’s Brian Robinson Jr. and Cincinnati’s Jerome Ford, who have quietly combined for an eye-popping 36 touchdowns on the season.

Overshadowed by future first-round picks Josh Jacobs and Najee Harris in his first four years at Alabama, Robinson’s patience paid off in 2021, with the imposing, 6-foot-1, 228-pounder exploding for 1,332 all-purpose yards and 16 touchdowns. Instinctive, agile and powerful, Robinson is one of a handful of quality backs in this class likely to earn a Day 2 pick and compete for a starting role early in his NFL career. It isn’t often that a running back from Alabama is underrated, but the pro-ready Robinson qualifies.

Ford can relate. After all, he was once part of the backup cast at Alabama alongside Robinson, signing with the Tide out of high school and opting to transfer to Cincinnati following the 2019 season.

Ford showed game-breaking potential in 2020, averaging 6.6 yards per rush and scoring eight TDs while again serving in a backup role. The 5-foot-11, 220-pounder has taken his game to another level this year, though, rumbling for 1,242 yards and more touchdowns this season (19) than Doak Walker Award winner Kenneth Walker III (18). While overshadowed much of the year, Ford has proven to be very reliable, scoring at least once in every game this season, with the notable exception being Cincinnati’s Oct. 2 win at Notre Dame.  

When things got tight in the AAC Championship Game against Houston, Cincinnati turned to Ford, and he delivered, sprinting for 79- and 42-yard touchdowns to help seal the Bearcats’ undefeated season.

5. Can Cincinnati shatter the Power 5 monopoly?

While NFL scouts have the important task of evaluating individual prospects for their respective clubs, don’t think they won’t be joining the rest of us to see if the Bearcats can prove that they really deserved to be included in this year’s playoff.

Since the NCAA adopted the playoff system in 2014, the Bearcats are the first and only team outside the Power 5 conferences to be granted the opportunity to compete for a shot at a national championship. Upsetting the defending champions — or even just keeping the game competitive — could be enough to shatter the glass ceiling and allow other teams to be given similar opportunities. Perhaps it could force the NCAA to consider adopting a true playoff such as the one used at the FCS level.

Of course, the opposite is true as well.

Should the Tide overwhelm Cincinnati (currently a 13.5-point underdog, according to FOXBet.com), the likelihood of another team outside the Power 5 getting a shot in the playoffs anytime soon is probably slim — at least until the next Cinderella team captures the college football world’s imagination.

One of the most recognized names in the industry, Rob Rang has been covering the NFL Draft for more than 20 years, with work at FOX Sports, Sports Illustrated, CBSSports.com, USA Today, Yahoo, NFL.com and NFLDraftScout.com, among others.