Colorado, Texas will headline college football's most improved offenses in 2023
I wrote it on Wednesday, but it bears repeating: The Clemson Tigers haven't seen a 3,000-yard passer since Trevor Lawrence left in 2020. And they haven't seen a 3,000-yard passer and 1,000-yard rusher in the same year since Travis Etienne was there with Lawrence in 2019.
Meanwhile, at TCU last year, Max Duggan passed for 3,698 with 32 TDs to eight INTs while Kendre Miller accounted for 1,515 from scrimmage, including 1,399 on the ground with 17 total TDs.
So what did Clemson do this offseason? The Tigers went out and hired TCU's offensive coordinator Garrett Riley in hopes of getting an offensive boost.
Will it work?
It says here it will. Expect Clemson to be one of the most improved offenses next season.
Here is my countdown of the top five.
5. Clemson
With Cade Klubnik and Will Shipley in the backfield, Riley has talent enough to produce a 3,000-yard passer and a 1,000-yard rusher, as well as make the Tigers offense into a 40-points-per-game offense, the same average that got Michigan (40.4) into the CFP.
TCU, a small private school in North Texas, averaged 38.8 PPG — ninth best in the country — gave up 29 and a game — 91st out of 131 in the country — and finished as national title runner-up. Clemson averaged almost a TD less a game (33.2).
4. Texas
This is another reminder that TCU played in the College Football Playoff national title game before Texas did, and also saw a Horned Frog Heisman finalist in the CFP era before Texas did.
Damn it, Texas. Do you know how mad I am looking at you here? Ain't you tired of folks using the phrase "pardon my language" before launching into a description of Longhorns football so hair-raising it'll make a nun clutch her habit?
It's not because you ain't got the talent to be great, it's that I'm looking at this roster and already asking myself how you don't put up 50 a game.
Xavier Worthy? AD Mitchell? Isaiah Neyor? Jordan Whittington? Johntay Cook? Ja'Tavion Sanders?
Quinn Ewers is getting the offense after what was essentially his true freshman year at UT. He was injured and he made mistakes. He played well in 10 games, but 2,177 passing yards with 15 TDs to six INTs is not what you want from a QB once rated the No. 1 recruit in the country.
But it seems he's not only going to be a much better player at the position in 2023, but he's going to be the first quarterback since Mac Jones to benefit from one of the sport's most innovative play-callers of the last decade. The man who was coached by one of Texas high schools' best quarterbacks in Riley Dodge said, "I feel like I'm getting a Ph.D. in football quarterback play" from Steve Sarkisian.
I get that Ewers is going to have a lot to say about how good Texas is, but it's worth pointing out that Sark has enjoyed a 1,000-yard RB in each of his last four years as a play-caller. And those RBs, Najee Harris (at Alabama) and Bijan Robinson, were first-round NFL Draft picks.
What I'm saying is this is a high bar to reach, and running the ball has always been a big part of great Sark offenses.
I'm curious to find out which one of those RBs in Austin can carry the mail — CJ Baxter in particular — following the departure of Robinson, a man who finished as the highest-scoring Longhorn of 2022 — two points ahead of kicker Bert Auburn, who missed a field goal that likely would have given Texas a chance to beat Alabama last year.
Texas averaged 34.5 a game last year — dead even with SEC West champ LSU.
3. Notre Dame
The Irish went 9-4 with a loss to 3-9 Stanford. They went 9-4 with a loss to Marshall in which they were flipped, turned upside down, pockets emptied, roughed up and ransacked. But bless ‘em, Lord, if ND's offense doesn't have the capacity to go from the one crying "uncle" to the one twisting arms.
Sam Hartman is the best quarterback Notre Dame has put at the top of the depth chart since Brady Quinn. At Wake Forest, Hartman went for 3,701/38/12 in 2022 and 4,228/39/14 in 2021.
Neither Logan Diggs (822) nor Audric Estime (920) rushed for 1,000 yards last year. With Diggs gone and Chris Tyree playing wideout, I wouldn't be surprised to see Estime rush for 1,500 yards and double his rush TD total from 11 to 22, because Hartman has demonstrated himself to be that kind of threat, surveying the defense from the gun.
You weren't scared of Drew Pyne picking you apart last year, and while Tyler Buchner could beat most linebackers and safeties to the corner, he threw more INTs (five) than TDs last year (three).
Now who is Hartman gonna throw the ball to? I think new offensive coordinator Gerad Parker is gonna have that figured out, as he was tight ends coach during Michael Mayer's run as the most prolific pass-catching tight end in a program that produced Tyler Eifert and Kyle Rudolph. Lest we forget, he also produced Leddie Brown, Winston Wright and Bryce Ford-Wheaton as OC and wideouts coach at West Virginia. He also turned K.J. Hamler into a hammer for Penn State, where Hamler caught 56 passes for 904 yards with eight TDs in 2019.
Sure you're gonna get the kind of offense every defensive head coach wants — 11, 12 and 21 with a heavy section in the playbook labeled Stay Out of the Defense's Way. The ancient and antediluvian among us call that "pro style." But we didn't see anyone rush for more than 1,728 yards in FBS last year and poor Brad Roberts' tires were bald at the end of his run of 345 rush attempts — whew.
Whoever the best pass catcher is in Notre Dame, Indiana, though, Parker is going to identify him and feed him the rock like he's got a gavage quota to meet, because football foie gras is on the menu.
Think Andy Isabella at UMass, Jordan Addison at Pitt or Charlie Jones at Purdue. The philosophy is simple: Get your best player the ball as often as you possibly can and then let that man be a Michelin Star chef and cook.
2. Texas A&M
You can't do much worse with the talent on-hand in College Station than the Ampersand U offense did in 2022. Following a year in which the Farmers signed what was the most highly-touted class in recruiting rankings era history, not only did they go 5-7, but they finished with the 85th-ranked offense in the country.
Haynes King, named the starter in 2022, played just six games, passing for 1,220 yards, which led the team. The Aggies managed to score just 22.8 points per game, squander an 1,100-yard rushing season from Devon Achane and lose to Appalachian State at home all in the same year.
And now Jimbo Fisher has brought in Bobby Petrino to run his offense — a move that feels as forced and sacrilegious as Ferrari running in the Daytona 500. You wouldn't say it can't work, but we're also saying we're looking forward to a little rubbing in the racing.
1. Colorado
Last year, QB JT Shrout led Colorado in passing with 1,220 yards, seven TDs and eight INTs. Shedeur Sanders threw for three times that many yards (3,732) and nearly six times as many TDs (40) with two fewer INTs (six) last year at Jackson State. Shrout completed 44.3% of his passes, while Sanders completed 70.6% of his.
Last year WR Montana Lemonius-Craig led the Buffs in receiving with 23 catches for 359 yards. Now they've got Travis Hunter.
No non-Colorado QB scored more than four TDs last year. The offense ranked 127th out of 131 and last in scoring defense — dead-ass last. Colorado gave up 44.5 points per game last year. Of course, Prime's Colorado will be the most improved team — let alone offense — in the country.
Bottom line: Only one of the top four scoring offenses made the CFP last year (Ohio State, with Tennessee, USC and Bama missing out).
I'm this close to throwing scoring offense out as a stat to identify national title contenders, because James Madison finished No. 13 last season. That's ahead of LSU, Ole Miss, Notre Dame, Texas, Clemson and Florida State.
James.
Madison.
Georgia had the No. 5 scoring offense and No. 5 scoring defense in the country. You can't win with an imbalance. You've got to accidentally Thanos your way into a national title.
RJ Young is a national college football writer and analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter at @RJ_Young. Subscribe to "The Number One College Football Show" on YouTube. He is not on a StepMill.