College Football Rankings: RJ Young's 2023 preseason Top 25

As we head into the 2023 college football season, uncertainty is the name of the game — especially when it comes to preseason rankings.

Two of the four best teams in the country are in the midst of a QB derby. Five of the top 10 will have a new starter at QB. Depending on how you classify Michigan assistant Sherrone Moore and Ohio State assistant Brian Hartline (will he call plays?), as many as six of the top 10 will have new offensive coordinators. 

In addition to all that change, the landscape of the sport will look totally different in less than a year's time as the College Football Playoff expands from four to 12 teams. 

And, oh yeah, eight Pac-12 schools have entered the conference transfer portal and will be immediately eligible for their new conferences in 2024.

Still, some things remain very much the same — Georgia is once again the team to beat, with a host of the usual suspects nipping at their heels.

Let's take a look at my 2023 preseason Top 25.

1. Georgia

Kirby Smart walked into Compton, California, and walked out with the No. 4 running back in the country. Such is the power of being the two-time defending national champ and unquestioned lord of the sport.

As much as it's going to show how much the Dawgs miss their two-time national champion quarterback, Stetson Bennett, keep an eye on offensive coordinator Mike Bobo, who has the task of taking over an offense Todd Monken built into the kind that went 29-1 over the last two years.

2. Michigan

It's a national title or bust.

If TCU can flip from 5-7 to the team that put up 51 in a win over previously 13-0 Michigan, then the Wolverines can win a national title this season. But until they do, that loss to the private Christian school in North Texas is how they'll be remembered in the four-team playoff era.

With two conference titles and two CFP invitations, it's difficult to say Harbaugh hasn't exceeded expectations given the disastrous 2020 he had. But now that he is meeting the standard set by Michigan fans, he needs to do what none since Lloyd Carr has — win the whole damn thing.

3. Ohio State

The Big Ten doesn't belong to you anymore. It's up to you to take it back.

That is going to be up, almost entirely, to the defense.

The Buckeyes have been searching for their 2019 defensive form for five years. They're into their second coordinator since Jeff Hafley left that gig, and, now, in Jim Knowles' Year 2, there is heat not just on the defense to perform but on head coach Ryan Day to oversee it.

The Buckeyes gave up an average of 39.3 points to top-15 opponents last year, including 45 and 42, respectively, to Michigan and Georgia.

No one doubts Larry Johnson Sr., will have his defensive line, led by J.T. Tuimoloau, ready to go, and linebackers Tommy Eichenberg and Steele Chambers are more than capable at the second level.

The secondary is where Ohio State will need the most improvement if it hopes to beat Michigan, win the Big Ten title, and make the national championship game for the first time since 2020. Jordan Hancock, Davison Igbinosun and Sonny Styles Jr. need to do better than giving up 371 passing yards and three TDs to Penn State, 263 passing yards and three TDs to Michigan, and 398 passing yards and three TDs to Georgia.

If you can't stop the best from running it up, you're not gonna win a national title.

4. USC

The Trojans had the No. 4 scoring offense in the country and No. 94 scoring defense (29.2 points per game allowed) in 2022. That ain't gonna get it done, bigun, especially when they gave up 47 to Utah in the Pac-12 title game and 46 to Tulane in the Cotton Bowl. USC ranked second from last — 129th — in the FBS in fourth-quarter scoring defense.

Even so, USC won 11 games in its first year under head coach Lincoln Riley and defensive coordinator Alex Grinch.

And Grinch hasn't had a team finish higher than 28th while working for Riley, and even that was in the mostly junk statistical year that was 2020. Every other year with Riley has seen Grinch's defense finish 60th or worse in scoring defense.

You can't win with an imbalance. And Grinch's defense hasn't been carrying its weight. If it does, the Trojans might make their first CFP appearance in school history.

5. Penn State

In Year 10 of leading the Nittany Lions, James Franklin might have his most talented team. With a stout defense, and star running back Nick Singleton anchoring the offense, a season of excellence from quarterback Drew Allar could lead Penn State to its first Big Ten title since 2016.

6. Alabama

The S-E-C no longer belongs to thee. 

The Tide has two new coordinators and a QB derby, and must deal with resurgent LSU and Tennessee, not to mention a Bulldogs program out there busting heads. Will the SEC ever belong to Bama again?

The sun hasn't yet set on the Nick Saban era, but this season will tell us how near it is to twilight. Until we are sure, it behooves us all to give Saban the benefit of the doubt — and then some.

7. Tennessee

Following the Heisman-caliber season quarterback Hendon Hooker enjoyed, in which he led the Vols to their first No. 1-ranking and win against Alabama since 2006, Joe Milton answered the question of whether he could do the same with a tremendous performance against Clemson in the Orange Bowl — the Vols' first New Year's Six Bowl win since 2004 and first 11-win season since 2001.

Simply put, the Vols have to charge up the rough side of Rocky Top, beat the programs to win the last three national titles — Georgia, at Alabama — and not stumble against a team like South Carolina along the way to reach heights unseen since Tee Martin led the Vols to a national title a quarter century ago.

8. Clemson

As I wrote last month, the short but punchy fact is that new Clemson play-caller Garrett Riley did more at TCU than Clemson did last season, with considerably less than the Tigers had.

The Tigers haven't seen a 3,000-yard passer since Trevor Lawrence left in 2020. And they haven't seen a 3,000-yard passer and 1,000-yard rusher in the same year since 2019. Lawrence threw for 3,665 with 36 TDs and eight INTs while Travis Etienne had 2,046 yards from scrimmage, including 1,614 on the ground with 23 total TDs that year.

At TCU last year, Max Duggan passed for 3,698 with 32 TDs to eight INTs, while Kendre Miller accounted for 1,515 from scrimmage.

If Riley can get Duggan-Miller production out of Cade Klubnik and Will Shipley, expect Clemson to win a CFP invitation for the first time since 2020.

9. Utah

The Utes will attempt to become the first Pac-12 team to three-peat just as the conference is on the verge of absolute dissolution. Utah will look to turn that into its first CFP invitation in school history and give itself the best chance to win a national title since running the table undefeated — with a win against Nick Saban's Alabama — in 2008.

10. Florida State

Following a tremendous win against defending SEC West champ LSU and a punctuating one against Oklahoma in the Cheez-It Bowl, Mike Norvell's Noles are looking to win the first conference title in his tenure since 2014.

11. Washington

After the Huskies' best season since 2016, UW coach Kalen DeBoer will be expected to finish 2023 in the Pac-12 title game. Like Utah, USC and Colorado, the Huskies want to leave the once proud Pac-12 with a banner to hang.

12. Texas

The Horns climbed halfway up my rankings since I dropped the "Way Too Early Top 25" in January.

Quinn Ewers is not just healthy, he's in the best shape he's ever been, and he's a year older. So is offensive tackle Kelvin Banks. The Longhorns got stronger at wideout with A.D. Mitchell and Johntay Cook. All-American Jaylan Ford leads a defense that could crack the top 15.

13. Oregon

If it ain't broke, don't fix it. That's new Oregon offensive coordinator Willie Stein's task. With Bo Nix finding form rarely seen previously in his career, Stein must develop Nix and the offense into the kind that not only wins the Pac-12 title but can put up more than three against Georgia if the Ducks fly that far.

14. LSU

LSU threw hands at practice in front of the media on Monday. The last time anything like that happened, the spirited chirpings of Joe Burrow and Patrick Queen sparked a 15-0 national title run. With linebacker Harold Perkins leading the defense and Jayden Daniels entering a season in which he could compete for the Heisman, Tigers fans should expect their team to mount a defense of their division crown.

15. TCU

Are you a flash in the pan? Or are you going to announce yourself beneath a larger Big 12 banner saying "Here I stand?"

The good news is the Horned Frogs finished in the national title game with the quarterback Sonny Dykes deemed to be QB2 — Duggan — and QB1 is ready and raring to lead a talented, if overhauled, TCU offense into a season to prove 2022 was no fluke.

16. Notre Dame

As I wrote last month, Sam Hartman is the best quarterback Notre Dame has had at the top of the depth chart since Brady Quinn and quietly the most prolific passer in ND history — without ever throwing a pass wearing a gold dome. At Wake Forest, he went for 3,701/38/12 in 2022 and 4,228/39/14 in 2021. 

Neither Logan Diggs (822) nor Audric Estime (920) rushed for 1,000 yards last year. With Diggs gone and Chris Tyree playing wideout, I wouldn't be surprised to see Estime rush for 1,500 yards and double his rush TD total from 11 to 22, because Hartman has demonstrated himself to be that kind of threat, surveying the defense from the gun.

17. UCLA

If Chip Kelly gets his quarterback selection right, the Bruins can win 10 games for the first time since 2013. Most believe the future of Bruins football will rest on the shoulders of true freshman Dante Moore, but Ethan Garbers and Collin Schlee are certain to give him a run for the starting job.

18. Kansas State

Without Deuce Vaughn to carry the load, quarterback Will Howard will need to come into his own. The man who came off the bench to lead K-State to the Big 12 crown can be for the Wildcats what former K-State QB and current offensive coordinator Collin Klien was for the program a decade ago.

19. Wisconsin

When North Carolina coach Mack Brown said he was coming back to UNC, he called Lincoln Riley and Kliff Kingsbury to ask which offensive coordinator Riley thought would get him on his Mark Morrison?

Both Riley and Kingsbury said go get Phil Longo.

Longo turned former UNC QB Sam Howell into the best ACC quarterback north of Clemson and turned Drake Maye into a Heisman frontrunner. 

Matter of fact, Maye is the sixth QB since 2010 to throw for 4,000 yards and 35 TDs, and rush for 650 yards and seven TDs in a season. Others to do it: Kyler Murray, Deshaun Watson, Marcus Mariota, Johnny Manziel and RG3. That's four Heisman winners and Watson.

Tanner Mordecai is talented enough, and having Braelon Allen and Chez Mellusi in the backfield is a tandem as stout as Michael Carter and Javonte Williams were at UNC when they played for Longo.

20. Colorado

Last year, QB JT Shrout led Colorado in passing with 1,220 yards, seven TDs and eight INTs. Shedeur Sanders threw for three times that many yards (3,732) and nearly six times as many TDs (40), with two fewer INTs (6). Last year WR Montana Lemonius-Craig led the Buffs in receiving with 23 catches for 359 yards. Now they've got Travis Hunter.

The offense ranked 127th out of 131 and the defense was dead last in points allowed per game (44.5). Of course Prime's Colorado will be the most improved team — let alone offense — in the country.

21. South Carolina

Shane Beamer has been called college football's Ted Lasso. Well, he's gonna have to be if he expects to mount a challenge against one of the sport's toughest schedules — at North Carolina, at Georgia and at Tennessee all in the first five weeks of the season.

The thing is, with wins against Clemson and Tennessee last year — both represented in the Orange Bowl — Gamecocks fans have every right to hang the We Believe banner above their bedroom doorway. Tap it on the way out for good luck.

22. Oregon State

Oregon State was a quarterback away from being a conference title game participant last year. Now, they have one in former five-star DJ Uiagalelei.

23. Texas Tech

The Red Raiders knocked off perennial Big 12 contenders Oklahoma and Texas in the same year last season and whooped Ole Miss 42-25 in the Texas Bowl.

And that was with three different players starting at quarterback. This year it's the Tyler Shough Show, with Behren Morton waiting in reserve. If it comes together in Lubbock, there's no reason to believe the Red Raiders aren't playing for the Big 12 title this season.

24. Oklahoma

The Sooners once again went into the transfer portal to find players that can help the defense.

Oklahoma defensive coordinator Ted Roof needs to produce a championship-caliber defense. The Sooners were awful on third down in 2022 and gave up 30 points per game — good enough for 99th out of 131 teams. With the Sooners handing out a number of scholarships to defensive transfers, including three expected to play important snaps this season — defensive end Rondell Bothroyd, defensive tackle Jacob Lacey and linebacker Dasan McCullough — all eyes will be on Roof and how his unit plays, particularly during the conference slate.

There's little doubt about Roof owning the experience — 36 years as a college football coach and a defensive coordinator at 12 stops — and acumen to pull off a dramatic turnaround of the defense. But gone are the days when Oklahoma could simply outscore most of its opponents.

And if Roof doesn't find a way to stop the majority of teams in the Big 12 there might be some doubt about what he can do against the vaunted SEC.

25. Iowa

The Hawkeyes have been a quarterback away for the last two years, fielding the nation's second-best scoring defense over that time span. If Phil Parker's defense can continue to play at an elite level, there's reason to believe Cade McNamara is the quarterback who can lead Iowa to its first Big Ten title since 2004.

RJ Young is a national college football writer and analyst for FOX Sports and the host of the podcast "The Number One College Football Show." Follow him on Twitter at @RJ_Young and subscribe to "The RJ Young Show" on YouTube.