College football odds Week 9: Why Georgia over Florida is your best bet this weekend (and more)
By Jason McIntyre
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
The doldrums of October in college football have been evident the last couple of weeks, with few great games and even fewer good results.
This week's board is dotted with a top-10 matchup, the No. 1 team in the nation with a tough rivalry test, and two sneaky-significant Big Ten battles.
Let's dive into my best Week 9 bets, with odds via FOX Bet.
MICHIGAN at MICHIGAN STATE (Total: 50.5 at FOX Bet)
This matchup is the first meeting between the two rivals when both are 7-0, but neither has an impressive resume.
Sparty has a weak win over a ranked opponent, beating a bad Miami team in mid-September. As such, both teams in this matchup have inflated defensive stats like this: Michigan is second in the country in scoring defense (14.3 points per game). When you dig into the stat further, you see the only good offense the Wolverines have faced moved the ball fairly easily. Nebraska had five different receivers catch explosive passes, and the Cornhuskers had 431 yards of offense. But three turnovers leading to 13 points did them in.
Can Michigan State's Payton Thorne take advantage? Yes, as he's averaging 15.2 yards per completion. Still, he struggled against Indiana, and if you strip away blowouts against Western Kentucky and Rutgers, you can understand why there are questions about the quarterback stretching this Michigan defense.
Also, will Mel Tucker dial up anything new in the off-week? I'd expect at least one gadget play against this aggressive Michigan front.
This matchup feels like another coin flip game in the series, in which four of the last nine games have been decided by 4-points or less.
The smart play in this spot seems to be the under - the total has gone down from 51.5 to 49.5, and it may drop lower.
I'll take it a step further - I believe both teams, in their first real test of the season, come out extra safe, which should translate to a low-scoring first half.
Neither team has a quarterback capable of multiple big plays over the top. I give a slight lean to Michigan State getting points, but give me the first half under.
PICK: Under 24.5 points combined by both teams in the first half at FOX Bet
IOWA at WISCONSIN (Total: 37 at FOX Bet)
We should start calling 6-1 Iowa the "Smoke and Mirror" Hawkeyes. They finally got exposed two weeks ago in a 24-7 defeat at Purdue. The Boilermakers had COVID issues, but it didn't matter since Iowa's defense didn't generate a million turnovers (they rank No. 1 in turnovers gained). Thus, the offense had to work for points, and we saw how that ended. Statistically, Iowa ranks 121st (out of 130!) in yards per play (4.61). Ouch.
Despite the 1-3 start, Wisconsin is right back in the mix to get to the Big Ten Championship Game with a win over the Hawkeyes.
What jumps out here is the total. 37 is staggeringly low, even for two inept teams like this.
Wisconsin has 17 turnovers this season, and everyone remembers the Notre Dame game, which featured a kickoff return touchdown and two pick-6's in the fourth quarter. Was that a fluke, or just Wisconsin in 2021?
Last week in a win over Purdue, Wisconsin threw a total of eight passes for 52 yards. I have to go under in this spot, as both coaches will employ ultra-conservative game plans with so much at stake.
PICK: Under 37 points combined by both teams at FOX Bet
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GEORGIA (-14 at FOX Bet) at FLORIDA
Both teams come into this game off a bye, with Florida licking its wounds from a 49-42 loss to LSU on the road.
That game was a coming-out party for Florida freshman quarterback Antony Richardson, who looked like a potential future No. 1 draft pick. He threw for three touchdown passes and had a TD run after seeing his most action of the season.
If Dan Mullen installs new plays for Richardson during the bye week, the Gators could hang around and make this game interesting. But he's just a freshman and facing the best defense in the country. Not a great combination to pull an upset.
The Bulldogs let me down for the first time this season when they gave up a touchdown in the final seconds and did not cover against Kentucky, but I'm going back to the well here.
Florida will be the most diverse offense the Bulldogs have seen this season, but the Gators are just too turnover-prone for me to back them in this spot. They've lost the turnover margin in every game this season and rank 98th in the country in protecting the ball (13 turnovers lost).
There isn't enough alcohol at the world's largest cocktail party for me to back the Gators here.
Take Georgia here, and don't look back.
PICK: Georgia (-14 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 14 points
PENN STATE at OHIO STATE (-18 at FOX Bet)
Since some understandable, early-season struggles with freshman QB CJ Stroud, the Buckeyes' offense has turned into a juggernaut.
Ohio State leads the country in yards per game (559.3), is second in yards per play (8.44) and has won five straight games by an average of 41 points. And OSU has owned Penn State in recent years, winning eight of nine.
Regarding the spread, it's been one-way gambling traffic on Ohio State, with the line surging from 12.5 - before Penn State lost to Illinois in 9 overtimes - to 18.5, and there may not be buy-back on the Nittany Lions until the line hits 3 TDs.
The key for PSU to get the cover (or maybe the upset) is the health of quarterback Sean Clifford. He was injured against Iowa and returned against Illinois last week but wasn't a threat to run (5 carries, -28 yards). He didn't look like himself, and Penn State lost. If his mobility is limited in Colombus, the Nittany Lions won't be able to keep up.
Penn State gave up 180 rushing yards to Wisconsin, 182 to Auburn, and 357 to Illinois. That's big because Buckeyes freshman TreVeyon Henderson averages 8.8 yards per carry on the season (No. 1 in the nation) and has 10 rushing touchdowns over the last five games.
I have some concerns about James Franklin dialing up the perfect game plan in a resume game for his USC job candidacy, but I can't make a case for Penn State on the road.
Give me the Buckeyes in a rout.
PICK: Ohio State (-18 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 18 points
Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst, and he also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. He joined FS1 in 2016 and has appeared on every show on the network. In 2017, McIntyre began producing gambling content on the NFL, college football and NBA for FOX Sports. He had a gambling podcast for FOX, "Coming Up Winners," in 2018 and 2019. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead, which he sold in 2010. You can follow him on Twitter at @jasonrmcintyre.
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