College football odds Week 9: Under wagers will rule, other best bets
By Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports NFL Analyst
In college football's Week 9, there's a slate of ranked Pac-12 teams playing on the family of FOX networks. Sign me up!
While some games will be more competitive than others, every fan and bettor will want to check these out. You've got USC licking its wounds after its very first loss, and you've also got my Oregon Ducks, who have been flying high since that hiccup in Week 1 that we've moved past.
So get ready to throw some bucks at my favorite wagers for the weekend (odds via FOX Bet).
No. 14 Utah at Washington State (10 p.m. ET Thursday, FS1 and FOX Sports App)
I love my Pac-12 conference. Because of that love, I get frustrated with our conference. Why are the Utah Utes — the preseason conference championship favorites — going on the road to play a Thursday night football game at one of the two venues in the conference where weird stuff happens? Just ask USC this question. Who, in 2017, went to Pullman on a Friday night as the fifth-ranked team in the nation and ended up losing 30-27? Yep, the Trojans.
This is just not a kind place for ranked teams to play under the lights of Martin Stadium. However, I’m not taking Washington State with the points. I’m going with the Under.
Washington State is 4-3, and in six of the Cougars' games, the Under hit. That's because the Cougars are outstanding on defense but very limited at scoring points on offense. Defensively, they rank 29th in points per drive and are led by a defensive line that has a high havoc rate. Ron Stone Jr., Brennan Jackson and Daiyan Henley have 46 combined pressures and 20 tackles for loss.
Utah’s offensive line is 90th in pressure allowed and 118th in the percentage of blown blocks in the running game. Washington State should have success slowing down Utah’s offense with its ability to control the line of scrimmage. Utah’s passing offense is quite simple. Get the ball to tight end, Dalton Kincaid. USC, the Utes' last opponent, couldn’t seem to figure this out. But I’m willing to wager that the Cougars staff has an answer for him. They’ve shown the ability to shut down high-powered offensives like USC and Oregon State in their last two games.
Washington State’s offense just can’t score. When the Cougars hosted the Ducks, they scored 41 points and generated all four of their explosive pass plays on unsustainable trick plays and Hail Mary throws. That was an outlier game. Other than that matchup, they are averaging 25 points per game. In their last three conference games, that number drops to 14 points. The Cougars do not generate explosive pass plays. They rank 103rd in passing explosiveness and 119th in air yards per pass. No surprise that their average third-down distance is 8.4 yards. Yikes. Their offensive line, ranked 115th in pressure rate, is really struggling. And in their short bye week, the Cougars announced they'd made some changes to that unit.
Utah’s defense is not what it once was. The Utes have allowed 42 points in back-to-back games against UCLA and USC. Both of those offenses are ranked in the top 15 nationally in efficiency. When they’ve played worse offenses, like Oregon State and Arizona State, they’ve allowed 13 and 16 points.
Washington State’s offense just won’t be able to score in this game. That is why it’s difficult to take points with the Cougars. Utah can have a weird game and still win 24-13 and cover.
The Under is the play here.
PICK: Under 55 points scored by both teams combined at FOX Bet
No. 8 Oregon at Cal (3:30 p.m. ET Saturday, FS1 and FOX Sports App)
Oregon is due for a clunker. There is no better place for that to happen than at Berkeley, where Oregon has a track record of clunker performances.
The Ducks are coming off an emotional victory Saturday in Eugene. They dominated UCLA in front of a sell-out crowd and in front of a national television audience. This game on Saturday at Cal might be sold out, but only if the stadium is 75% full of Oregon fans. You have to create your own energy at Memorial Stadium. After last Saturday's big win, I think it will be difficult for that to happen for the Ducks.
Now to the football.
The Cal Bears have always been able to play defense under head coach Justin Wilcox. They rank 34th in overall defensive efficiency; they have an above-average ability to stop explosive plays with their bend-don't-break defense. They don’t stop the run or pass that well, and they don't rush the passer well, either. But when it’s time to stop teams in the red zone or on third down, the Bears get it done.
Oregon’s offense has averaged 49 points per game over the last six contests. But the Ducks have started slowly in the first quarters of games and sometimes even into the end of the first half. Cal’s defense is only allowing nine points on average in the first half of games.
Cal is 3-4 because, despite its ability to limit points, the team can’t score any on its own. The Bears offense is led by a rushing attack where Jaydn Ott has 580 yards with 6.5 yards per attempt. However, those rushing numbers are misleading because he rushed for 274 yards against Arizona. So other than that game, Cal’s rushing attack has been poor. The Bears passing attack is atrocious. It ranks 111th in passing success rate. They cannot be trusted to score points at all, especially against an Oregon defense that’s particularly successful in the first half of games. Oregon’s defense allows only 13.5 points in the first half of games.
The play for me is the first half Under for all the reasons mentioned above. I think both offenses start slow. Wager low scoring through the first half.
PICK: Under 29 points scored in the 1st half by both teams combined
No. 10 USC at Arizona (7 p.m. ET Saturday, PAC-12 Network)
I feel for Arizona's defense on Saturday night. The Wildcats defense is ranked 113th overall and 129th in points per drive. They struggle to stop anyone and have allowed 49 points in three of their four conference games. Now, they get a high-powered USC offense off a bye. After their loss to Utah, the Trojans are going to unleash all their anger on this Wildcat defense
USC’s offense is a first-half team, scoring early and often this season. The Trojans rank seventh in the sport, averaging nearly 23 points in the first half. Arizona, on the other hand, allows 18.5 points in the first half of games. That's good for 111th in college football.
More specifically, Arizona has faced two-straight teams that rank in the top six of offensive points per drive. Oregon scored 28 first-half points and Washington had 21. Arguably, Washington could have scored more if not for two missed fourth downs in Arizona territory. It's also worth noting that USC’s defense has been good at forcing turnovers that give the offense extra possessions early in games. Arizona’s quarterback is turnover-prone.
It would not surprise me if the Trojans scored a touchdown on all of their first-half opportunities.
I think USC scores at-will early in this game. Give me USC's first half team total.
PICK: USC Over 22.5 points scored in the 1st half
Stanford at No. 12 UCLA (10:30 p.m. ET Saturday, ESPN)
UCLA is coming off an emotional loss at Oregon. The Bruins are angry. They believe they had an opportunity to beat Oregon if they had played better or maybe if they finished drives with touchdowns. I believe UCLA comes out with fire, passion and a plan to dominate. The Bruins will be on a mission to correct their wrongs from the Oregon loss.
UCLA moved the ball inside the Ducks' 30 on every single drive but finished with three field goals and a turnover. However, Stanford's defense is not Oregon's. The Cardinal D ranks 123rd in stopping the run and 90th on defense in explosive play rate. UCLA’s rushing offense ranks 10th in the country, and the Bruins have the least amount of three-and-outs in college football. Stanford’s defense is not equipped to handle the offense it will be facing this weekend.
The Cardinal are on a two-game winning streak, but I would not be fooled by those wins. They are still a team that doesn’t do much well. They scored 16 points in their win over Notre Dame and then beat Arizona State by making five field goals. Their post-game win expectancy in those wins was 23% and 31%. Both Notre Dame and Arizona State had poor quarterback play, but UCLA does not have that issue. The Bruins will slice and dice the Cardinal defense while shutting down their non-existent offense. Stanford’s offense ranks 83rd in points per drive and 79th in explosive play rate.
I will take the Bruins -17 in this contest.
PICK: UCLA (-17 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 17 points
Geoff Schwartz played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. He is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
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