College football odds Week 7: Bet on Georgia to rout Kentucky, and more
By Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports NFL Analyst
It's already Week 7 of college football! It's been a blast so far, now let's pick some winners!
I'm riding with one of the best teams this week to cover the spread in another huge SEC contest. Plus, there are two games where the emotions of college football players will determine the outcomes.
Let's get into my best CFB bets for the week, with odds via FOX Bet.
Kentucky at Georgia (-22.5 at FOX Bet)
Georgia is laying more than three touchdowns to Kentucky, and with the public all over the Wildcats, I'll take the Bulldogs.
The Georgia defense is by far the best in the country, as it's allowing just 5.5 points per game. Yes, that is correct. Over their four conference games, the Bulldogs allowed 13 points to South Carolina, zero to Vanderbilt and Arkansas, and 10 whole points to Auburn last weekend.
Kentucky's offensive profile is similar to that of Arkansas, which looked overwhelmed in Athens. I'm trying to find ways the Wildcats score more than 14 in this contest, and I just can't. The Bulldogs have the ability to wear down opponents and finish games with covers because their defense is elite.
Kentucky's defense is poor outside of third-and-long, while Georgia's offense ranks first in the country in average third-down distance. The Bulldogs find ways to prolong drives, a backbreaker for opposing defenses. Georgia's offense ranks 14th in points per drive as well.
Lastly, this will be only Kentucky's second road game of the season. In the other, the Wildcats struggled to beat South Carolina.
Give me the Bulldogs laying the points in a rout.
PICK: Georgia (-22.5 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 22.5 points
Oklahoma State (+5 at FOX Bet) at Texas
Let's do a blind résumé test. Team A is ranked in the top 10, with a ranked loss and zero ranked wins. Team B is ranked just outside the top 10 with two straight wins against ranked opponents.
The first team is Ohio State, and the second is Oklahoma State. The Pokes are playing some good football, led by a defense that is ranked eighth in overall efficiency, 10th in points per drive, and second in pressure rate.
For as good as Oklahoma State's defense is, its offense is the opposite. There is no other way to put it – the O does nothing well and doesn't score many points.
On the flip side, the Cowboys now face a Texas team that is good on offense and poor on defense. The Longhorns rank second in points per drive on offense and 102nd on defense.
When examining a game in which it's hard to find an edge on the field, we turn to other means. In this matchup, the road team has covered the last three meetings and eight of its previous 12 games away from home.
More importantly, this is a letdown spot for Texas after that horrendous ending to the game last weekend. The team's faithful crowd will be low-key early in this game, so this is where I find the edge.
I believe Oklahoma State will be more mentally prepared to begin this game. The Cowboys' physical play on defense will stun the Longhorns' offense early on. This early advantage should give the Oklahoma State offense some short fields against the poor Texas defense.
That is why I'll be on Oklahoma State in the first half. Once Texas wakes up, it could be tough for the Cowboys to score enough points, but the Longhorns won't be awake until the second half.
Arizona State at Utah (+1 at FOX Bet)
The Pac-12 conference regularly produces wacky results. Last weekend one of those scenarios played out. Oregon State, riding a four-game winning streak after beating USC in L.A. for the first time since 1960 and putting away Washington on a game-winning field goal, went to Pullman and lost outright to Washington State.
Washington State is not good, and also had a significant distraction with a head coach who refuses to get vaccinated. In any other conference, the team with the better play in the trenches, the better quarterback and a better coach would have won this game. But not out West. This leads me to Utah hosting the Sun Devils.
Arizona State is playing great right now. The Sun Devils are 5-1, with their only loss of the season at BYU, in a closer game than the final score indicated. In that game, ASU produced 16 penalties and sloppy play, an issue under Herm Edwards. However, the Sun Devils bounced back to easily beat UCLA in the Rose Bowl and Stanford this past Friday.
Arizona State is a powerhouse rushing team, averaging almost six yards a carry. Also, Jayden Daniels is the most talented starting quarterback in the conference who looks improved in his short to intermediate passing game.
The offense also has the fewest number of three-and-outs this season, and is ranked 16th in big plays.
On defense, Arizona State is a havoc-creating machine. That unit ranks third in overall havoc rate, led by a second-ranked defensive line. The Sun Devils get pressure on the quarterback and limit big plays.
On the other side, Utah is a fascinating team. Many people in the know out West, including myself, liked them as the Pac-12 South champion. The Utes only played a handful of games last season and looked physical on both sides of the ball. Utah returned many starters in key areas, and its staff was thrilled with Baylor transfer quarterback Charlie Brewer's performances in both spring and camp. But then Brewer was benched in a Week 3 loss at San Diego State, and he promptly left the team after the game.
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His replacement is Cam Rising, who was voted team captain despite not winning the starting job. He won the position heading into 2020 and got hurt on one of their opening plays. Since Rising has been in the lineup, Utah's offense has drastically improved, including an offensive line that had been "offensive" until last weekend. The Utes' staff praised their offensive line depth heading into the season, but it had been subpar until settling into a groove against USC.
The entire offense played its best game off the bye, beating USC in LA for the first time in 100 years. Utah's defense is stout and does a great job of limiting big plays, ranking 17th in overall efficiency. The Utes need to get more pressure on the quarterback, though, moving forward.
Lastly, this game will be a wildly emotional one for Utah. Utah beat Washington State three Saturdays ago, and then tragedy struck the program again. Nine months after promising young running back Ty Jordan passed away, his best friend on the team, Aaron Lowe, was murdered in Salt Lake City. Utah used the bye week to grieve, and you could tell it was playing with a different purpose against USC last Saturday night. Lowe's funeral was Monday, and the team now must move forward as best they can to prepare for Arizona State.
Look for them to get a boost from the packed Rice-Eccles Stadium, which can get loud and wild. After the initial shot of energy from the crowd, will the emotions of the past week overwhelm the Utes? I'm wagering it won't, which is why I like Utah this weekend.
PICK: Utah (+1) to lose by fewer than one (or win outright)
Geoff Schwartz played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. He is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
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