College football odds Week 5: How to bet Stanford-Oregon

The Stanford Cardinal take on the Oregon Ducks for a college football Week 5 showdown between Pac-12 rivals.

Stanford comes into this game with a 1-2 record, including a 40-22 loss to the Washington Huskies. Oregon got back on track after its season-opening loss to the Georgia Bulldogs. Now 3-1, the Ducks roll into this contest on the heels of a 44-41 victory over Washington State.

Can the Cardinal post their second win of the season, or will the mighty Ducks add another W to their win column in Week 5?

Here's everything you need from a betting perspective on the game between Stanford and Oregon from the point spread, moneyline, total over/under and expert pick (odds via FOX Bet).

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Stanford @ No. 13 Oregon (11 p.m. ET Saturday, FS1)

Point spread: Oregon -16.5 (Oregon favored to win by more than 16.5 points, otherwise Stanford covers)
Moneyline: Oregon -714 favorite to win (bet $10 to win $11.40 total); Stanford +450 underdog to win (bet $10 to win $55 total)
Total scoring over/under: 62.5 points scored by both teams combined

Pick via FOX Sports NFL Analyst Geoff Schwartz:

No matter the point spread, the records or how we think the game should go, Stanford always finds a way to be a thorn in the side of the Ducks. Whether they are derailing a 2012 championship run, coming back from 17 points down in Autzen to win in overtime in 2018 (the last home loss for the Ducks) or just playing their best game of the season to beat Oregon (2021), they are always a pain in the butt.

Stanford has stunk lately. They've lost nine straight games to Power 5 opponents by an average margin of almost 20. But I still cannot wager on the Ducks to cover. However, I also don’t feel comfortable wagering on Stanford because they are not good. The only case I can make is that this game stays close.

But I do love a wager in this game.

It’s fair to say I had some skepticism about the Ducks' offense heading into this season. Oregon's offensive coordinator is 32 years old and had not been in charge of his own offense yet. The Ducks got transfer quarterback Bo Nix from Auburn, who tends to have "Bad Bo Nix" moments. However, outside a few throws against Georgia and that one horrendous interception against Washington State last weekend, Nix has been outstanding.

The Ducks' offense is driven by their offensive line. They allow no sacks and rank first in pressure rate allowed. They are fourth in rushing success rate, and they have four running backs averaging over five yards a carry. Nix has led a passing attack that is fifth in success rate and ranks 18th overall in points per drive. This number includes a three-point output against Georgia. This offense is humming, and Stanford should not pose a threat.

Stanford’s defense ranks 110th in success rate, 113th in stopping the run and 94th against the pass. Their overall defensive havoc rate is 130th! They are 100th in points per drive and have allowed opponents 41 and 40 points over the last two games. Because of Oregon’s ability to run the ball, even if the Ducks get up big and slow the offense down, they will score points with huge chunk plays.

Give me Oregon over 40.5 points this weekend.

PICK: Oregon team total over 40.5 points

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